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November 9, 2000
BRAZIL: RECENT RAINS ACCELERATE PLANTING OF 2000/01 SOYBEAN CROP
Brazil’s MY2000/01 soybean crop (October - December planting) is forecast at 34.5 million metric tons, up by about 3 percent from last month, and 6 percent above last year’s crop. Harvested area remains unchanged from last month at 13.4 million hectares. Yield is currently estimated at 2.58 tons per hectare (Fig. 1), which is slightly above the trend value, in response to a 34 percent increase in overall technological inputs (fertilizers, lime, pesticides). Preliminary reports on planting intentions by Safras & Mercado (Fig. 2) suggest that area decreases in the states of Parana (3.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.2%), and Santa Catarina (2.8%) are being offset by increases in Bahia (4.8%), Goias (1.4%), Minas Gerais (2.5%), Mato Grosso (2.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (1.4%). Early indications are that farm inputs (fertilizers, lime, and pesticides) have gone up by about 34 percent this year due to increased availability of credit and better prices.
Widespread showers during the first week of November (Fig. 3) boosted soil moisture supplies in the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias, and Bahia. The recent break in the rains helped revive planting operations in the southern states of Santa Catarina, Parana and Rio Grande. Cumulative rainfall for the period September to October, 2000 (Fig. 4) shows long-term wetness in Rio Grande and the dryness in the northeast. According to Safras, about 18 percent of the crop was planted by November 3rd in Brazil compared to 14 percent last year (Fig. 5). Planting delays are evident in both Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais.
Brazil’s 1999/2000 soybean production is estimated at 32.5 million tons, up 500,000 tons from last month and 4 percent above the previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.4 million hectares, up 4 percent from 1998/99. The 1999/2000 growing season was characterized by planting delays due to drought in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul. However, record yields in Mato Grosso helped boost overall soybean production and made up for any weather related losses in the south.
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For more information, contact Rao Achutuni with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0140.
