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October 6, 2000
Flooding in Southeast Asia
Since July there has been widespread flooding along the Mekong River in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. However, in the major rice exporting countries of Vietnam and Thailand the flooding has caused only minor damage to the rice crop. While there has been great loss of life and property in both countries, the damage to rice has been limited by both the location and timing of the floods. Cambodia and Laos have experienced much more significant damage to their rice crops, due to different crop growing schedules and less flood-control infrastructure. The Mekong river normally floods every year between late August and November, but this year the monsoon rains started at least five weeks early in July. Extremely heavy rainfall has also caused flood waters along the Mekong river to rise much higher than normal.
Thailand: The Mekong river runs through northeast Thailand along its border with Laos. A large amount of the main rice crop is grown here, but only a small amount of the second crop. When the rains started in July the second rice crop of the 1999/2000 crop year was being harvested. Second crop harvest usually lasts until August when the monsoon rains begin. Not all of the second crop was mature enough to harvest in July, so a small amount of 1999/2000's second crop was lost in the flooding. Jasmine rice is grown in this region during the second crop, so 1999/2000 Jasmine production may show a more significant decline than overall rice. On the positive side, the flooding will provide more than adequate moisture for the 2000/01 main rice crop. While farmers will be unable to grow rice in some lowland areas due to flooding at the beginning of the main crop season, it will allow them to plant more rice on higher ground that is usually too dry for rice. The flooding is unlikely to lower production in 2000/01.
Vietnam: The Mekong river flows across the extreme southern part of Vietnam, entering a wide delta and then flowing out into the South China Sea. The timing of the flood is minimizing damage to the Vietnamese rice crop. The 1999/2000 third crop of the year, the summer-autumn crop, was nearing its usual August harvest when the floods hit in July. The government called out the military to assist farmers harvesting the crop during the flooding, and crop appears to have been harvested before severe losses occurred. There should be little impact on rice production in 1999/2000.
Normally farmers would finish harvesting their summer-autumn crop, then plant their 10th month crop, the first crop of the 2000/01 season. The flood waters would rise throughout the Delta in late August, and the 10th month crop would remain underwater until the floods receded in November and the crop was harvested. This year, the waters rose before farmers had time to plant the 10th month crop in the areas that flooded early. This means that there will be almost no 10th month crop coming out of these areas, but these are also the areas that do not grow much of the 10th month crop. Most of the flooding is near the Hau river in the Delta, and the main 10th month areas are located in a different part of the Delta. Loss of 10th month crop area will likely cause a minimal reduction in 2000/01 rice production. Also, in the middle of September tropical storm Wukong destroyed a small amount of 10th month crop area on the North Central Coast. In the Delta region the floods are being compared to the severe floods of 1961, 1966, 1978, and 1996, but the government of Vietnam claims that like Cambodia, this year’s floods are the worst in 70 years. The 1996 flooding was caused by a typhoon, and the Vietnamese have greatly increased their system of dikes for flood control since that year. While some dikes are crumbling in these unusually high floods, the system has done a great deal to mitigate the damage in the Delta. The Vietnamese are concerned that the floods will recede later than normal in November, possibly delaying planting of the main winter-spring crop that provides most of their exports. Such a delay could eventually lower production potential for 2000/01, but may be offset by the boosted soil fertility arising from the flooding. The final result of the flooding on Vietnam’s 2000/01 rice crop should be minimal.
Laos: Only one rice crop is grown in Laos each year. It is an entirely rainfed crop planted before the monsoon begins in August and harvested in November and December. The Mekong river flows mostly along Laos’ border with Thailand, but crosses into the interior of the country in two small areas which are the most important rice-growing regions in the country. Much of Laos is mountainous and grows highland rice, but the lowlands along the Mekong river contain over half the country’s rice area and account for 70 percent of Laos’s rice production. When the monsoon rains started early in July, farmers should have been nearing completion for the 2000/01 planting, but some fields might not have been sown. The United Nations is reporting that a significant amount of the 2000/01 rice crop has been destroyed during the floods. Rainfall monitoring stations along the border with Laos are reporting very large rainfall totals this year, while the Laotians are describing it as "thousand year rains". Laos has little infrastructure in place to help control flood waters, resulting in higher flood damage than in Thailand or Vietnam.
Cambodia: The Mekong river runs through the center of Cambodia, entering at the northern border with Laos and exiting at the southern border with Vietnam. The 1999/2000 dry season crop was harvested well before the monsoon rains and flooding began, but planting of the 2000/01 main crop was probably disrupted. Main season planting occurs in June and July, so the onset of flooding during July probably prevented some land from being put into production. The United States does not receive rainfall data for Cambodia or Laos, but reports from inside Cambodia indicate that the country received twice its normal rainfall in July, and that seasonal flooding began 45 days ahead of normal this year. The government of Cambodia has stated that this year’s floods are the highest and the most damaging in 70 years. According to the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, on September 21st the Mekong river passing the capital city of Phnom Penh hit a record high of 11.2 meters (36.7 feet). The warning level for serious floods at the Phnom Penh measuring station is 10.5 meters. Like Laos, Cambodia has little infrastructure in place to help control flood waters, resulting in more damage than in neighboring Vietnam. The government of Cambodia and the United Nations are reporting that a significant amount of the 2000/01 rice crop has been destroyed during the floods.
For more information, contact Suzanne Miller with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0882
