September 12, 2000

BRAZIL: WHEAT PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED DUE TO FROST IN PARANA

Brazil’s wheat production for 2000/01 is forecast at 1.8 million tons, or 22 percent below last month and 28 percent below last year’s crop of 2.5 million tons, due to frost damage in July. Harvested area is estimated at 1.35 million hectares, up 14 percent from last year. Yield is currently forecast at 1.7 million tons per hectare, or about 19 percent below last year’s record yield.

The two key wheat producing states in Brazil are Parana (57%) and Rio Grande do Sul (34%). Collectively, they produce over 91 percent of the wheat crop (Fig1.). Wheat is generally planted during April to mid-June and harvested during September to November. Bulk of the crop was planted in a timely manner, with some minor delays in Rio Grande do Sul. Soil moisture conditions during the growing season were generally fair to adequate, with some dryness developing in northern Parana.

Time-series of wheat area, production, and yield statistics for the period 1985/86 to 2000/01 are shown in Figure 2. There has been a significant decrease in wheat area since the late 80's. Both wheat and the Safrinha (second) corn crop compete for the same area. There has been a significant increase in Safrinha area, particularly during the last five years. Gains in yield over the same period can be attributed to a combination of improved technology and by the elimination of marginal wheat areas. Depressed yields for the current crop are a direct result of crop damage due to frost. A series of freezes associated with cold fronts from Argentina adversely impacted the wheat crop in the southern state of Parana on the 13^th-14^th, and again on the 17^th-18^th of July (Fig. 3). Because of the frost damage Brazil is likely to import about 7.7 million tons of wheat, but mostly from the Mercosur member countries.

For more information, contact Rao Achutuni with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0140.