June 26, 2000

DROUGHT UPDATE FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA

Several regions of the Horn of Africa are facing severe drought, with the worst drought affected regions being southern and eastern Ethiopia, and northern Kenya.  Cumulative rainfall has been nearly normal in Eritrea, southern Sudan and Somalia, but reduced crop production is reported in these areas due to regional conflicts  (Figure 1).

Figure 1.  Percent of Normal Precipitation from Feb. 1 – June 10, 2000

Kenya

Kenya’s critical “long rains” were delayed and have been erratic, including within the reliable grain-basket districts.  Cumulative rainfall during the current long-rain season is well below the long-term normal (Figure 2).  The worst hit drought areas include the already severely drought-affected pastoralists in northern Kenya.  The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development estimates that the corn harvest from the long rains will only reach 1.4 million tons compared to an average production of 2.2 million tons during a normal rainy season. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Project reports that the planted crop area in the grain-basket districts is 40 percent less than average acreage planted.

Figure 2.  Rainfall time series analysis for Kenya

In addition, most major water reservoirs have been reported as dry or nearly dry, and these dry reservoirs have forced the country to ration both water supply and electricity.  Hydropower accounts for approximately 80% of Kenya’s power production and the rationing of electricity is expected to reverberate throughout all sectors of the economy.   The Kenyan Government recently appealed for international food assistance for 3.3 million people, with a greater number of people may requiring emergency food assistance before the expected “short rains” arrive in October.

Eritrea

Even though the rains have been nearly normal (Figure 3), the border war with Ethiopia in late May caused hundreds of thousands of villagers to abandon their homes and seek refuge.  The timing of this human displacement occurred several weeks before preparation of the lands for planting.  With no crops in the fields, the country is facing a "crisis in the making." The United Nations estimates that up to 750,000 of 3.5 million Eritreans have been displaced by the fighting and will need food assistance.

Ethiopia

At the beginning of this year, the Ethiopian government made an appeal for international food assistance for nearly 10 million people due to two consecutive years of drought.  The secondary “belg” rains were later delayed in February and gradually recovered in April, but the recovery was too late to save the “belg” harvest (Figure 4).  In the northern “belg” areas, the belg cereal harvest is expected to be a complete failure.  In addition, the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation recently announced the need for power rationing due low water reservoir levels caused by the poor belg rains.   

Figure 4.  Rainfall time series analysis for Ethiopia

Southern Sudan

Arrival of the rains was slightly delayed, but cumulative rainfall returned to normal during April (Figure 5). Vegetative conditions have improved in many areas, but some areas of Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei, and Upper Nile received below average precipitation.  Despite better rainfall conditions, crop production still remains precarious due to civil conflicts and population displacements affecting large numbers of people. USAID’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) estimates that 2.8 million people are food insecure in Sudan, with approximately 61,700 people affected by drought conditions and the remainder of this population displaced or affected by the ongoing civil conflict.

Figure 5.  Rainfall time series analysis for Southern Sudan

Somalia

The main growing season from the “gu” rains started in mid-April (Figure 6).  Good to heavy rains have caused some flooding, but water and pasture conditions have not yet recovered from earlier drought conditions.

Figure 6.  Rainfall time series analysis for Somalia

For more information, contact Curt Reynolds with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0134 or by e-mail at ReynoldsC@fas.usda.gov.