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June 30, 2000
Good Prospects for Bajio Corn and Sorghum
The central-south plateau region of Mexico known as the Bajio (meaning lowlands) has thus far been treated favorably by the 2000 monsoon, especially when compared to the previous two summers. Unlike 1999, no states have been designated as disaster zones due to dryness, and no other significant issues have arisen in the Bajio states to negatively impact planting or production. Assuming a normal monsoon, the region is progressing toward a normal crop season.
Early-summer dryness in the Bajio helped to hold down barley, corn, and sorghum production in 1998 and 1999, and some areas witnessed below-normal precipitation since an intense tropical depression stationed off the south Pacific coast dissolved in October 1999. The normally dry winter was not followed by scattered showers in April and May, and the 2000 summer monsoon did not arrive with much authority until mid-June.
The summer monsoon traverses the region in a southeast-to-northwest progression, meaning the Bajio is among the first of Mexico's grain producing regions to gain benefit of the annual event. The southeast states have enjoyed regular showers and brief thunderstorms in June 2000, while the northern and western states of the Bajio have experienced widely dispersed showers. The exception was the west-bound tropical depression that formed 200 miles off the coast of Chiapas, developed into Hurricane Carlotta around June 20th, bringing high winds and showers to Mexico's Pacific coast before dissipating 5 days later west of Baja California Sur.
An extremely wide planting/harvesting window allows producers to delay seeding fields until conditions are favorable. A monsoon season characterized by a moderate volume of rainfall would equate to few worries for corn and sorghum. Sixty-five percent of Mexico's grains are produced from the summer months, with the Bajio states and its nearest neighbors accounting for most of it. Corn is rain-fed in the Bajio, with only 3 states irrigating more than 20 percent of their corn area over the past 3 years. Bajio sorghum is also rain-fed, if sometimes by default. Five states in the region have more than 30 percent of their area irrigated, but the nature of the sorghum plant (very hardy, drought-resistant) is such that Bajio fields can flourish even in summers of subpar precipitation. The water level at some of the Bajio reservoirs are far below capacity while others are well above half full. But the status of the reservoirs should have no lasting impact upon the resilient Bajio sorghum.
For more information, contact Ron White with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0137.
