|
|
|
|
|
|
May 22, 2000
Tunisia’s Cereal Harvest Mirrors the Rest of Northwest Africa
With the paucity of rainfall in late April and early May, grain production prospects in Tunisia have been considerably reduced. The one mid-April precipitation event that occurred, while highly anticipated, did not boost moisture to needed levels. Moreover, this rain combined with above average temperatures to create a hot, humid environment that promoted the emergence of pests and fungi, reducing both yields and quality of the already drought-stricken crops. Harvesting should now be underway, and will continue through June.
In contrast to the rest of northwest Africa, Tunisia and far eastern Algeria received occasional shower activity throughout the growing season, resulting in crops that were in much better shape than those further west (see Tunis’s 2000 season cumulative rainfall). In addition to the crops along the immediate coastal sections of Tunisia, crops on the plateau region south and west of Tunis also fared better than the rest of the region. The degradation of the crop is evident from observing the change in vegetative vigor from 4 March 2000 to 4 May 2000 (AVHRR images), as well as from AVHRR composites of the 1st half February 2000 and the 2nd half April 2000 for all of northwest Africa. These four satellite products capture the infrared reflectance (shown in red) given off by healthy plants. The most recent image in each series is noticeably less red than the one from earlier in the season, an indication of deteriorating conditions.
Consequently, USDA released 2000/01 grain production estimates for Tunisia that are the lowest since the 1994/95 drought, and less than half the average harvest of the 1990's. Please go to USDA's 2000 grain estimates for area, yield and production totals for the 2000/01 crop year as of May 12th, which includes the updated numbers for Tunisia as well as northwest Africa and the world.
Background:
Northwest Africa has seen wide variations in the production of wheat and barley over the years. The bountiful 1995/96 crop scored a record harvest for combined wheat and barley production at 17.4 million tons total. In comparison, the May 2000 estimate for the current combined crop of wheat and barley harvested in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia is a mere 3.4 million tons, not even one-fifth of the 1995/96 crop. The wheat and barley production graphs shows how the crop has risen and fallen during the last ten years. The yield for this region’s cereals crops (which are only irrigated at ten percent) rely heavily upon a southerly storm track during the growing season; If the storm path stays further to the north through Europe, as it did this season, a devastating reduction in output is basically assured across the Maghreb.
For more information, contact Bryan Purcell with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0138 or by e-mail at Purcellb@fas.usda.gov.
