April 28, 2000

Dry Conditions Continue in Iran, Iraq, and Syria; but Improvement Seen in Turkey

Rainfall in Iran has been below normal throughout most of the country and for most of the growing season (see Figure below). The country is in the second consecutive year of drought and the current crop is now in the heading stage. Reservoir water levels are lower than last year and low reservoir water levels are expected to affect irrigated crops (70 percent of wheat crop), especially those users located farthest downstream from the reservoirs. The Iranian Minister of Agriculture recently announced that wheat imports are expected to remain high for MY 2000/01 due to the severe drought.

The 2000/01 wheat crop in Syria has experienced long-term dryness. According to recent field travel by USDA personnel in Damascus, the below normal rainfall had little affect on irrigated wheat crop but has significantly affected the rainfed crop (60 percent of total production). The barley crop is nearly all rainfed and the dry conditions in the east have adversely affected yield potential. Iraq has experienced similar dry conditions as in eastern Syria and Iran, so Iraq's 2000/01 wheat and barley productions are expected to remain low and will likely mirror last year's poor crops.

Turkey's grain production prospects for 2000/01 are favorable due to good precipitation in March and April. If normal precipitation continues in May, the production outlook for wheat and barley should be as good or even slightly better than last year. The quality of Turkey's wheat crop looks better than last year due to less damage caused by the Sunni bug and aelia rostrata, largely attributed to good snow cover and cold temperatures during the winter months.

NOTE: USDA will release its first 2000/01 wheat and coarse grain supply and demand estimates by country on May 12.

For more information, contact Curt Reynolds with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0134 or by e-mail at ReynoldsC@fas.usda.gov.