December 2000

World Rice Production Drops As Policies and Prices Push Plantings Down

World rice production for 2000/01 is forecast at 400.6 million metric tons, down nearly 4.4 million from last year’s output, reflecting a policy shift away from the production of early season rice in China and in some countries in South America, resulting from lower world prices compared to last year.

On the other side of the world, Southeast Asia has increased production despite early season weather difficulties. These six countries of Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, Philippines, and Cambodia are forecast at a record 90.8 million tons of rice in 2000/01 compared to last year’s 90.7 million. In Vietnam, widespread rainfall has contributed to a potential large crop this growing season of 20.7 million tons just below last year’s record of 20.75 million. The large crop is expected despite early season floods which threatened to delay the harvest of the 10-month crop and reduce plantings of the main winter-spring crop. In Thailand, the 2000/01 main rice crop output in the Northeast is expected to be better than last year’s record production due larger area, early arrival and excellent rainfall, and very minor pests and disease problems pushing production to an estimated record 16.6 million tons. The four other nations in the group are Indonesia at 33.5 million tons of output, Burma at 9.8 million, Philippines at 7.8 million, and Cambodia at 2.3 million. Over the past ten-years, yields for Southeast Asia have increased by more than 8 percent but the biggest factor in production growth is the expansion in area, up nearly 13 percent as farmers have turned to high-yielding varieties, applied more fertilizer, pesticides, and improved irrigation systems. Indonesia, the largest Southeast Asia producer, has seen the yield on a rough basis up 4 percent and area up 5 percent. Thailand and Vietnam have seen growth in yields and area up 8 percent and 9 percent; and 21 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

Yield improvement and area expansion in Southeast Asia have moved this group of countries into a single block that produces more than a fifth of the world production and contains two of the world’s leading exporters and importers. Indonesia and the Philippines have used their larger rice supplies to become more self-sufficient, while Thailand and Vietnam have become the first and second biggest world rice exporters. China, the world’s largest producer, is the third largest exporter. In comparison to China, Thailand exports nearly twice as much as China while producing roughly one-tenth of the crop. In the table below, this report highlights the top seven rice producing nations by showing their relative importance in the world and their relation to each other on a production and area basis.

Ron Roberson, Cotton and Rice Chairman
Telephone: (202) 720-0879
E-mail: roberson@fas.usda.gov

**Philippines and Cambodia

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