September 12, 2000

KAZAKSTAN WHEAT HARVEST ADVANCES INTO KEY PRODUCTION ZONE

The USDA estimates Kazakstan 2000/01 grain production at 10.5 million tons, including 8.0 million of wheat, unchanged from last month and down from last year's bumper crop of 14.2 million tons of total grain and 11.2 million of wheat. Reports released by the Interfax, Bridge, and Reuters news agencies indicate that yield was slightly higher than last year during the early stages of the harvest campaign. As the campaign moved into north-central Kazakstan, the country's prime spring-wheat region, yield failed to keep pace with the near-record level achieved last year. Despite officials' optimistic August projections of another 14-million-ton harvest, the 2000/01 grain crop never appeared likely to match last year's output (see August 16 assessment).

According to a Ministry of Agriculture harvest report cited by the Bridge news agency, 4.3 million tons of grain had been threshed from approximately 40 percent of the sown area as of September 5, with harvest nearly complete in the south. Average grain yield was reported at 1.06 tons per hectare, down only slightly from 1.10 tons per hectare at the same time last year. More telling, however, are the yield results from the three key oblasts in north-central Kazakstan, where nearly 75 percent of the country's wheat is grown. With harvest 25-30 percent complete, yields are down sharply from last year: 0.82 tons per hectare in Akmola (down 32 percent from last year), 0.85 tons per hectare in Kustanay (down 35 percent), 0.91 tons per hectare in North Kazakstan (down 35 percent). If yields continue at these levels, which is not an unreasonable assumption, total net-weight grain production should fall within the range of 10.0 to10.5 million tons.

(Note that Kazakstan's administrative boundaries were re-drawn several years ago, and that the three oblasts listed above include the territory of the former oblasts Turgay and Kokchetav.)

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.