September 12, 2000

RUSSIAN GRAIN-HARVEST FORECAST INCREASED TO 64 MILLION TONS

The USDA increased its estimate of Russian grain production for 2000/01 from 61.7 to 64.2 million tons (including roughly 1.5 million tons of pulses and miscellaneous grains). Harvest was approximately 75 percent complete as of September 4, with a reported 48 million tons threshed (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying). Wheat production is reported at 23.6 million tons, up from 21.3 million at the same time last year. (The USDA estimates Russian wheat production for 2000/01 at 36.5 million tons, against 31.0 million in 1999/2000.) Although the reported yield of 1.8 tons per hectare is up 20 percent from the same time last year, yield is dropping rapidly from week to week, compared to other years.

The harvest campaign has advanced into the spring-wheat region, most importantly the Urals and Western Siberia. Grain production in Western Siberia is relatively stable from season to season, and has averaged 9.1 million tons over the past five years. Average output from the Urals is slightly higher, at 10.5 million, but can fluctuate significantly from year to year, as the Urals region tends to be more subject to weather extremes than Western Siberia. The 16.2-million-ton crop of 1997, for example, was followed by a drought-slashed 5.3-million-ton harvest the following year. Weather has been generally favorable in both regions so far this season, but final production will depend largely on the amount of grain that can be brought in before cold, wet weather puts an end to harvest operations.

For the second consecutive year, the threat of locust damage has loomed over harvest prospects. According to the U.S. agricultural attache in Moscow, however, losses will be limited this year to severe but localized damage affecting only a small percentage of farmers and totalling less than 0.3 million tons. Furthermore, locust are not seen by the attache as a long-term threat to the Russian grain crop, due in part to increased pesticide application.

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.