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December 20, 2000
The North Korea grain harvest in 2000/01 was the lowest on record. Reports from the North Korea government, UN observers, and other analysts describe serious crop losses due to drought and late-summer typhoons. The impact on crop production from poor infrastructure, chronic shortages of electricity and agricultural inputs, was great. North Korea faces great challenges in meeting food requirements after this harvest.
Outlook for 2001/02 Winter Crops
Current prospects for the 2001/02 winter crops are fair to poor. The North Korea government has strongly promoted the double-cropping of winter wheat and barley since 1999, but it is unknown if farmers had the seeds and fertilizer needed to expand area this year. Conditions were very dry at planting (late-September to mid-October), which may have prevented good germination and tillering before the crop entered dormancy. Winters in North Korea are very cold and the risk of winterkill can be high if there is insufficient snowcover to protect the crop. North Korea's winter crops are highly dependent on timely spring rainfall to provide enough moisture for pollination and grain-fill. The first USDA production estimate for North Korea's 2001/02 winter crops will be released in May 2001.
Summary of 2000/01 Crop Season
USDA's estimate of North Korea's total grain production for 2000/01 is 2.85 million tons, down 17 percent from last year's estimate of 3.45 million tons and the lowest crop on record. [Grain Table] This figure includes rice (milled basis), corn, and wheat/barley.
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Corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 1.35 million tons, down 16 percent from last year. Corn area has dropped significantly since 1998 as the result of government policy designed to increase crop diversity. The largest area shift was from corn to potatoes, particularly at high elevations and northern latitudes. Corn area is estimated at 525,000 hectares based on information from FAO surveys. Hot and dry weather significantly reduced yields in 2000/01. Yield is estimated at 2.57 MT/Ha, similar to the drought-impacted crop of 1997/98. [Corn Table]
Rice production for 2000/01 is estimated at 1.35 million tons (milled basis), down 16 percent from last year due to lower estimated area and yield. Rice area is estimated at 570,000 hectares, down 30,000 from last year based on field reports from FAO. The crop was affected by excessive heat and dryness in June and July, although not as seriously as corn. Yields were also affected by typhoon-related flooding during August and September. The estimated yield of 2.37 MT/Ha is slightly below the 5-year average. [Rice Table]
Winter wheat and barley production for 2000/01 is estimated at 150,000 tons, down from 250,000 tons in 1999/00. The government area target for the 2000/01 crop was 128,000 hectares, but only 90,000 hectares were planted due to dryness and a shortage of seeds and inputs. Dry weather in the spring had a negative impact on yield, which is estimated at 1.67 MT/Ha.
Tubers (potatoes) and minor grains are also grown in North Korea, but USDA/FAS does not currently keep statistics on these crops.
Weather and Imagery Analysis
North Korea entered the 2000/01 crop year with a moisture deficit carried over from 1999/2000. Dry weather in March and April stressed the maturing winter wheat and barley crops, resulting in disappointing yields. There was timely rainfall in early May for the start of the summer planting season, but the weather became abnormally dry from June through early July. Reservoir levels were very low and many paddy fields were reportedly abandoned or sown with dryland crops instead of rice. Corn planting was delayed and germination was poor. [Satellite Image - 27 June 2000]
Rainfall from May through July was only 40 to 60 percent of normal in most of the country (Rainfall Map), which created unfavorable conditions for vegetative and reproducing crops. Temperatures were also above normal through most of the summer. Widespread rainfall from mid-July through August eased the drought in many crop areas, but it came after the peak growth period and failed to erase the seasonal rainfall deficit. [Rainfall Graphs]
Corn harvesting began in late August and concluded in September, while the rice harvest began in September and ran through October. Much of the country had favorably dry and clear weather during this period, which allowed harvesting to occur without delay. However, tropical storms in late-August and September caused significant localized damage to crops and infrastructure along the northeast coast and the South Korea border. [ Political Map]
For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.
