August 25, 2000

Agricultural Situation in Zimbabwe

Economic and political problems threaten crop production in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector is feeling the effect of the country’s serious economic and political problems. The country is suffering from severe fuel and electricity shortages, high inflation and unemployment (both above 50 percent), an acute shortage of foreign exchange, high agriculture production costs, and a sharp decline in tourism revenue. Perhaps the most serious difficulty is the land reform polices of the government of President Robert Mugabe, which are being challenged by the political opposition, as well as labor and farm unions. [Political Map]

The land reform controversy has its origin in the liberation of Zimbabwe from British colonial rule 20 years ago. A major goal of the Mugabe government has been to redress the imbalance of land ownership in Zimbabwe: descendents of white colonists comprise about 1 percent of Zimbabwe’s population but own about 70 percent (12 million hectares) of Zimbabwe’s farmland. After years of limited land reform progress, the government in 1998 designated 804 white-owned farms (of a total 4,500 farms) for confiscation and resettlement by landless black families. The farms would be taken without payment, although the government agreed to negotiate compensation for buildings and improvements. Mugabe has insisted that Britain is responsible for the cost of land reform: Britain had offered to contribute $54 million but only if the reform process was fair and transparent.

By the end of 1999, only a few properties had been acquired and many people had become impatient with the slow pace of land reform. In February 2000, political supporters of President Mugabe, veterans of the liberation war, and groups of black settlers began invading white-owned farms across the country. Within a few months, more than 1000 farms were being occupied in violation of the law but with the government's approval. Reportedly, thirty one people have been killed since the invasions began, and incidents of poaching, fires, indiscriminate tree-cutting, theft, beatings, death threats, and intimidation have been occurring daily.

Despite criticism from opposition parties, the Commercial Farmers Union (representing white farmers), and the international donor community, President Mugabe continues to support the farm invasions for domestic political reasons. Following the narrow victory of Mugabe's ruling party in the June general elections, the government passed the Land Reform and Resettlement Implementation Plan which reaffirmed the previously-announced policies. In August the government settled 2,000 families on 80,000 hectares of previously-acquired farmland, and it plans to acquire and resettle 100 farms in each of the eight provinces before the start of the 2000/01 summer planting season in October. Hundreds of additional farms were recently added to the acquisition list, and President Mugabe has indicated the government plans to acquire at least 3,000 white-owned farms comprising more than 5 million hectares of land. This threat has created a climate of uncertainty among white farmers, many of whom have abandoned their property or been forced to leave.

Impacts

These events are happening at a time when farmers should be harvesting, processing and marketing their 1999/00 crops, planting the 2000/01 winter wheat crop, and preparing the land for 2000/01 summer crop planting, which begins in November.

Although the 1999/2000 harvest was unaffected by the land reforms, the impact on next year's agriculture production may be serious for several reasons:

- Winter wheat planting and preparations for summer planting have been affected. Prime farmland is being used for squatter's dwellings, irrigation systems have been disrupted, equipment and supplies has been stolen or destroyed, and farmers and farm laborers have been physically prevented from working the fields.

- Livestock poaching and theft is reported to be rampant on occupied farms. Tobacco grading and cattle auctions have been delayed, and banks are reluctant to provide capital to producers.

- The newly-settled farmers may not have the same level of experience, access to equipment and capital, and economies of scale as the farmers they replace. Furthermore, white farmers will likely be reluctant to make further investments on land that could be seized in the future, and crop yields may decline as a result.

- Sources estimate that 500,000 farm workers and their families will be displaced if the land reforms are carried out.

- Hundreds of Zimbabwe farmers have made inquiries about migrating to Zambia, where there is surplus arable land and better economic and political conditions.

The agricultural sector accounts for an estimated 20 percent of Zimbabwe's gross domestic product and 40 percent of export earnings. Analysts warn that earnings from tobacco, livestock, and horticulture products could fall by 20 percent next year if the land crisis is not resolved soon. This will reduce Zimbabwe's ability to import fuel, grain, and other vital necessities.

Grain Production in 1999/2000 and 2000/01

Zimbabwe’s grain production (corn, wheat, millet, and sorghum) has been erratic over the past 15 years, dropping sharply during the El Nino drought years of 1991 and 1994 but reaching high levels during years with favorable rainfall. The 1999/2000 grain harvest was higher than 1998/99 despite a drop in corn area and floods in late February which caused local damage to crops and infrastructure. Economic problems, political uncertainty, and a land-distribution crisis are expected to have a serious impact on 2000/01 grain production. Total output of corn and wheat is forecast to drop to 1.44 million tons, the smallest non-El Nino crop since 1986/87. [Grain Production]

Corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 1.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last year. Area is forecast to decline by 14 percent to an estimated 1.2 million hectares, and yields are expected to drop due to the unstable agricultural situation. Planting for the 2000/01 crop will take place in November following the start of the rainy season, and harvest will take place in May/June 2001. White corn, the staple food grain for most of the Zimbabwe people, accounts for 80 to 85 percent of national production. [Corn Production]

Wheat area for 2000/01 is forecast at 45,000 hectares, down 25 percent from last year. Planting normally takes place in June/July, but the farm crisis delayed or prevented normal operations in many areas. Production is estimated at 240,000 tons, down 20 percent from a year ago, assuming normal weather. [Wheat Production] Zimbabwe is also forecast to produce an estimated 75,000 tons of barley and 80,000 tons of sorghum in 2000/01, down slightly from last year. Barley and sorghum are mainly produced in the communal sector.

Background

Zimbabwe’s crops are produced on both large-scale commercial farms and small-scale communal farms. The estimated 4,500 commercial farms are located mainly in the northern and central part of the country where Zimbabwe’s best farmland is located. [Cropland Intensity Map].

Most commercial farms are owned by the descendents of white colonists, although blacks also participate in commercial farming. Corn yields average four times higher than on communal farms due in part to differences in land quality, the availability of irrigation, better technology and management practices, and better access to capital. These commercial farms account for less than 10 percent of corn area but contribute some 30 - 40 percent of corn production in a normal year. Commercial farms are the primary source of wheat, tobacco, livestock products, and horticultural products (such as cut flowers) for export.

Communal farms, located mainly in the less-fertile southern and western parts of Zimbabwe, produce the majority of the country's corn, cotton, and peanuts, as well as other subsistence crops and livestock. Excessive grazing, over-crowding, and erosion on communal lands have resulted in a marked reduction in vegetative cover over the years. The boundaries between communal and non-communal lands (commercial farms, national parks, and conservation areas) are clearly visible on AVHRR satellite imagery. [note: shades of red indicate vegetation]

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0133 or by e-mail at sandene@fas.usda.gov