February 23, 2000

INDIA'S WHEAT CROP CONTINUES TO RECEIVE FAVORABLE WEATHER

As India's 2000/01 wheat crop approaches the flowering stage of development, timely and beneficial rain continues to fall in nearly all major producing states, except for isolated western areas. Despite the favorable growing conditions to date, cool weather through mid-March will be essential to maintain yield potential and grain quality.

Prolonged dry conditions in the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat this season will likely constrain 2000/01 yields. Furthermore, poor soil moisture in these western regions during planting is expected to have resulted in a lower sown area than in 1999/2000. Crop conditions in Punjab and Haryana are reportedly satisfactory, though they may not match last year's record production. The production outlook is favorable in most other states, particularly Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The wheat in Uttar Pradesh, India's largest wheat producing state, is in excellent condition and can be expected to partially offset the likely production decrease in the western Indian states of Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Last year's 1999/2000 wheat season produced a record 70.8 million tons, as near-record yields were achieved on a record 27.4 million hectares. New production records were set in all major producing states except Uttar Pradesh, and total production in 1999/2000 was two percent larger than the previous record set in 1997/98.

An analysis of vegetation health and condition utilizing AVHRR satellite imagery indicates healthy vegetation in most of the wheat belt. The current analysis of vegetation health indicates conditions appears favorable, similar to the same period last season, with the exceptions of isolated areas in Gujarat and Rajasthan.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.

India Map based on contribution of districts to total India production. Areas of dark green represent regions, which on average, contribute up to 3 percent to the total Indian wheat output. The gray shaded areas contribute, by district, less than one-tenth of one percent to the nations total output. | Go to Top of Page

Vegetation Health: This approach combines the visible, near infrared, and thermal radiances in a numerical index characterizing vegetation health. This approach is extremely useful in detecting and monitoring such complex and difficult-to-identify phenomenon as drought. | Go to Top of Page

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