Fiscal 1998 Outlook for U.S. Fishery Products Trade
U.S. Fishery Product Exports are Forecast to Reach $2.9 Billion, Up 8 Percent Over 1997

Summary

U.S. fishery product exports are forecast to reach $2.9 billion in fiscal 1998, up 8 percent (about $200 million) over 1997 and back to the average level of exports over the last 5 years.

This forecast assumes that Alaska's salmon harvest will rebound in 1998 resulting in an increase in salmon exports to Japan. Salmon exports in 1997 were down $180 million from 1996 exports, due mostly to a 30 percent reduction in the 1997 salmon harvest. The outlook for salmon exports will be reviewed this spring once the Alaskan catch estimates are released.

U.S. fishery product imports are forecast to continue their increasing trend, reaching a record $7.8 billion in fiscal 1998. This represents a $535 million increase over the previous record set in 1997. A slight gain in U.S. seafood consumption along with limited U.S. catch of some products (e.g. shrimp, tuna, etc.) are expected to lead to higher imports.

Most of the increase will be a result of continued increases in shrimp imports, which are forecast to rise 7 percent. Other edible fish and seafood are forecast to increase 10 percent.

Based on our export and import forecasts, the U.S. fishery trade deficit will reach $4.9 billion in fiscal 1998. This is above the record $4.6 billion set in 1997.

Commodity Export Highlights

Whole and eviscerated salmon exports are forecast to increase sharply to $435 million in fiscal 1998.

Canned salmon and fish roe exports are forecast to increase 14 percent each, for combined exports of more than $600 million in 1998.

• Forecasted increases in whole and eviscerated salmon, canned salmon, and fish roe (eggs) exports all assume that the Alaska salmon harvest will be up in 1998 from the 30 percent reduction in the 1997 salmon harvest. Alaska's salmon harvest over the last five years has averaged 180 million fish and our 1998 forecast assumes a return close to the average level.

Surimi (fish paste) exports are forecast at $290 million in fiscal 1997, down $32 million from fiscal 1996 but up $51 million from fiscal 1995.

• Stagnant surimi consumption in Japan, strong competition from other suppliers, and large seasonal exports last year are expected to result in lower fiscal 1998 U.S. exports.

Top Export Markets

Fiscal 1998 U.S. exports to Japan are forecast to increase by five percent.

• In fiscal 1998, Japan will remain the largest market for U.S. fishery product exports. Currently Japan takes 52 percent of our total seafood exports, which is three times larger than any other market. Given the expected increase in the 1998 U.S. salmon harvest and a broader market development focus beyond salmon to include crab, lobster, and surimi, exports are forecast to increase moderately. However, Japan=s slow economic growth, a weak yen, and strong competition from Norwegian and Chilean farmed salmon are expected to limit gains to this predominant market.

U.S. exports for fiscal 1998 to China (including Hong Kong) are forecast to grow 15 percent to $185 million.

• With exports at $160 million for fiscal 1997 (an increase of nearly 40 percent over fiscal 1996), U.S. exports to China have been growing faster than any other major market. Strong growth in domestic consumption that has outstripped production gains and increased U.S. market development efforts are boosting U.S. sales. Squid exports have led the increase growing from just $6 million in fiscal 1995 to $40 million in fiscal 1997. However, with concerns that the U.S. squid harvest may be down considerably this year due to water temperature changes off the Pacific coast caused by El Nino, the fiscal 1998 forecast predicts a slower increase in U.S. exports to China than the average 29 percent increase seen over the past four years.

Fiscal year 1998 U.S. exports to Canada are forecast to increase 12 percent reflecting the expected rebound of the 1998 salmon harvest, and U.S. exports to the European Union will likely show little change as foreign competition remains strong. U.S. exports to Korea and Southeast Asia are expected to fall due to their economic problems but these markets import less than 6 percent of U.S. fishery product exports.

Fishery Imports and Top Supplying Countries

U.S. fishery product imports are forecast to continue their historical rise, reaching a record $7.8 billion in fiscal 1998. Major commodity trends include:

Shrimp imports are forecast to increase 7 percent

• Tuna imports are forecast to increase 6 percent
• Other edible fish and seafood are forecast to increase 10 percent.

Imports from Thailand are expected to increase 5 percent and imports from Ecuador are expected to increase 15 percent. Thailand and Ecuador should remain the number one and two suppliers, respectively, of shrimp and tuna to the United States and account for 50 percent of total U.S. shrimp and tuna imports.

Imports from Canada are expected to grow by 12 percent with imports of other edible fish and seafood continuing to account for 50 percent of total U.S. fishery imports from Canada. Canada is the leading supplier of fishery products to the United States providing 17 percent of all imports.

Last modified: Monday, August 29, 2005