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June 18, 1999
Minor Trade Impact Expected as Mexican Drought Remains
Restricted to Northern Areas
Summary
While Mexico’s 1999/00 wheat production is forecast to decline slightly from last year and livestock will likely face continued poor pasture conditions until the summer monsoon arrives in July, total 1999/2000 grain production is forecast up 0.5 million tons from last season. As a result, only a marginal year-to-year increase in grain import demand is anticipated.
Despite Drought, Total Grain Output Is Up, Curbing Import Demand
USDA forecasts the 1999/2000 total grain crop (excluding rice) at 28.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from the 1998/99 harvest. Favorable planting conditions in the south (corn and sorghum) are more than compensating for reduced area and yield in the north (mostly wheat production). Furthermore, southern reservoir levels are not as low as in the north and farmers have an April-to-July planting window. The monsoonal showers are already active over Central American and indications are that they will progress across Mexico in the normal time frame.
Grain import demand is expected to rise 0.5 million tons year-to-year, with increases in wheat and sorghum (150,000 and 400,000 tons, respectively). The boost in sorghum imports is in response to reduced pasture available to the cattle herd in the North. Grain imports could rise further if normal July rainfall does not materialize to prevent further deterioration.
Reservoir Levels in the North Are Low
The Government of Mexico has declared the 10 northern states disaster zones as drought has diminished water reserves in local reservoirs. The 1998 monsoon was a month late in arriving in northern Mexico, and late-winter 1998 and spring 1999 precipitation amounts for the region were below normal. Historically, rainfall over most of Mexico is sparse during the winter and spring. The monsoon arrives in June and traverses the country in a southeast-to-northwest progression. Ordinarily, seasonal cloudbursts come to semi-arid northwest Mexico in July, replenishing reservoirs while temporarily offsetting the need to draw against them. Although the monsoon season officially ends in October, measurable rainfall persists through December over many northern states.
Satellite Imagery Analysis
Analysis of low resolution NOAA-14 as well as NOAA-15 and high-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery indicates normal pre-monsoon field work has taken place across southern Mexico this spring. Most states have sufficient precipitation to support ground preparation and planting activities. Below is a file of Landsat 5 TM imagery covering northern Mexico for August 18, 1998, and May 17, 1999, depicting the worsening conditions around Lazaro Cardenas Reservoir in east Durango State, one of ten Mexican states in the disaster zone.
| Satellite Imagery | |
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| August 18, 1998 | May 17, 1999 |
| Click on the pictures for enlarged images. |
These images are contrasting views of the Lazaro Cardenas Resorvoir. Above left is a Landsat 5 scene from August 18, 1998, wherein the dark blue/purple expanse is the water in the reservoir and the dark green area indicates the true reservoir shoreline receding due to annual bouts of dryness. Above right is a Landsat 5 scene of the same location on May 17, 1999, showing virtually no water within the reservoir boundaries. The white puffy areas with corresponding black patches are clouds and their shadows. The variations of red/orange areas are crops in variuos stages of development. Note the comparative absence of cultivated fields in 1999.
For more information, contact Ron White, Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at 202-690-0137 or by e-mail at whiter@fas.usda.gov; or Scott Thompson, Grain and Feed Division, at 202-690-4195 or by e-mail at thompsons@fas.usda.gov.
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