000 FXUS65 KABQ 152104 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 304 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2008 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...LEAVING A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH DECREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED AWAY. ISOLATED CELLS ONGOING OVER THE SANGRES AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW CELLS POPPING UP OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND INTO WESTERN UNION COUNTY. LAPSE RATES...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT COULD MAKE FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN LOCALIZED CELLS WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COULD ENHANCE OUTFLOW WINDS THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS IS CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND WILL VEER BY TUESDAY WITH ANY CELLS MOVING EAST TO WEST. MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH ANY ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER NORTHERN TO NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE A COUPLE OF DECREES IN SOME LOCALES...BUT GENERALLY A SEASONABLE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES A LITTLE LESS DEFINED AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF THE NATION. STORM COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MINIMAL DUE TO A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE AT A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE CWA. STORMS WOULD AGAIN INITIATE ON NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE BEST LAPSE RATES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INTERFACES WOULD BE. STORMS WOULD SLOWLY REINTRODUCE THEMSELVES TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. STORMS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS INTRODUCED DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MIDDLE OF THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SLOWER NOGAPS/CANADIAN RUNS ...BRINGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AND MORESO INTO SUNDAY. 52 && .AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z...KD && .FIRE WEATHER... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OF THE DRIER VARIETY AS GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OR VIRGA SHOWERS...SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON WITH NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES RANGING FROM FAIR NORTHWEST TO GOOD OR VERY GOOD SOUTHEAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 OR 8500 FEET. SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 48 83 50 84 / 0 5 5 5 GALLUP.......................... 38 79 41 78 / 5 5 5 5 GRANTS.......................... 42 80 40 78 / 5 0 0 5 GLENWOOD........................ 47 81 46 82 / 10 5 5 0 CHAMA........................... 34 73 34 74 / 10 5 5 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 75 44 75 / 10 5 5 5 RED RIVER....................... 28 69 32 68 / 20 5 5 10 TAOS............................ 39 77 39 75 / 10 5 5 10 SANTA FE........................ 46 77 46 76 / 10 5 5 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 79 48 78 / 10 5 5 5 ESPANOLA........................ 43 83 45 81 / 10 5 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 81 56 80 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 82 50 81 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 80 54 79 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 81 53 81 / 5 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 48 82 50 82 / 5 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 72 40 74 / 5 5 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 77 43 77 / 5 5 5 5 CARRIZOZO....................... 47 78 47 78 / 0 5 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 43 70 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 43 79 43 80 / 10 5 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 42 77 43 75 / 10 5 5 5 ROY............................. 49 78 52 76 / 10 5 5 0 CLAYTON......................... 50 82 54 83 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 48 82 51 84 / 5 5 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 50 85 54 85 / 5 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 51 84 53 83 / 5 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 49 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 49 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 54 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 52/19