DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
SYNOPSIS THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH WAS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. THIS PATTERN ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND OF LARGE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES AS ANY COLD AIR INTRUSIONS...AS WELL AS LARGE WARM-UPS...WERE SHORT LIVED. THOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT AND OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS...AND A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURRED MARCH 16TH AND 17TH...WHEN A POTENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WAS ABLE TO ACQUIRE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN SOME CASES THIS WAS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECEIVED SINCE MID DECEMBER. LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED AS OF MARCH 20...ACCORDING TO THE US DROUGHT MONITOR...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED WEST OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE TO ANTIOCH. EAST OF THIS LINE...TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MERRIMAN...TO LEWELLEN...TO HAYES CENTER MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE LAST MONTH...AND NOW ENCOMPASS ALL OF GARDEN...CHASE...PERKINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KEITH AND HAYES COUNTIES. CLIMATE SUMMARY VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WITH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW...AND IMPERIAL ALL RECORDING SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS THE SECOND MONTH IN A ROW FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO RECEIVE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. VALENTINE ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUED TO BE IN THE STORM TRACK FOR SOME MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS...RECORDING NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH. OVER THE LAST 6 MONTHS...SEPTEMBER TO FEBRUARY...ONLY VALENTINE HAS RECORDED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW...AND IMPERIAL HAVE HAD A 6 MONTH DEFICIT...WITH IMPERIAL RECORDING LESS THAN HALF OF THEIR NORMAL 6 MONTH TOTAL. 6 MONTH PRECIP/INCHES LAST MONTH PRECIP/INCHES LOCATION SEP-FEB NORMAL DEP | FEB NORMAL DEP NORTH PLATTE 4.10 4.62 -0.52 | 0.10 0.51 -0.41 VALENTINE 5.34 4.66 +0.68 | 0.48 0.48 0.00 BROKEN BOW 4.13 5.70 -1.57 | 0.02 0.48 -0.46 IMPERIAL 2.21 4.83 -2.62 | 0.02 0.53 -0.51 THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUED TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF JANUARY WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN RESULTED IN NUMEROUS FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS. THE LACK OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALLOWED DAILY TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL IN BETWEEN COLD OUTBREAKS. THE RESULTING AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW...AND IMPERIAL WAS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAD MORE SNOWFALL...WHICH RESULTED IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR VALENTINE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE/DEGREE F LOCATION DEC NORMAL DEP | JAN NORMAL DEP | FEB NORMAL DEP NORTH PLATTE 21.0 25.7 -4.7 | 23.2 23.2 0.0 | 29.5 29.4 0.1 VALENTINE 22.2 23.6 -1.4 | 20.2 20.8 -0.6 | 25.4 26.6 -1.2 BROKEN BOW 23.6 23.8 -0.2 | 23.2 20.9 2.3 | 27.5 26.3 1.2 IMPERIAL 22.9 27.0 -4.1 | 25.5 25.0 0.5 | 32.1 30.4 1.7 RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS REMAINED LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT REMAINED STEADY AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVER BASINS. RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS LAKE LEVELS AT THE END OF FEBRUARY REMAINED MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR ENDERS DAM AND LAKE MCCONAUGHY. LAKE MCCONAUGHY GAINED SIXTY SIX THOUSAND ACRE FEET FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH TO A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 687800 ACRE FEET. THIS WAS AN INCREASE OF 3.9 PERCENT TO 39.5 PERCENT OF CAPACITY TO END THE MONTH. THIS DOES HOWEVER COMPARE TO A LAKE ELEVATION 5.5 FEET ABOVE LAST YEARS LAKE ELEVATION. ENDERS DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 16900 ACRE FEET WHICH REMAINED STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH WITH 39 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. RED WILLOW DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 25640 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE SLIGHTLY TO 71 PERCENT. RED WILLOW DAM RECORDED THE HIGHEST RESERVOIR STORAGE TO END THE MONTH SINCE 2000. OTHER RESERVOIRS WHICH ARE SPRING FED SAW THE USUAL RESERVOIR RECHARGE. MEDICINE CREEK DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 33900 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY WAS NEARLY STEADY AT 95.0 PERCENT. CALAMUS RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 112700 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE SLIGHTLY TO 88.5 PERCENT. MERRITT RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 61200 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY WAS STEADY AT 91.5 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS 105 TO 115 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...DUE TO THE ALLOTMENT OF UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS...DELIVERY OF WATER TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THEREFORE LIMITED RELEASES FOR CONSERVATION PURPOSES IS PLANNED...AS LAKE MCCONAUGHY REMAINS AT CRITICALLY LOW LAKE LEVELS GOING INTO THE IRRIGATION SEASON. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH...BOTH DUE TO WILDFIRE ACTIVITY AND PRESCRIBED BURNING. PRIOR TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS MONTH...DRY CONDITIONS REMAINED IN PLACE. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP EASE FIRE CONDITIONS ONLY TEMPORARILY. THE NEXT SHORT WARM AND DRY PERIOD WILL BE ENOUGH TO DRY THE FINE DEAD FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...RETURNING THEM TO A READY TO BURN STATE. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE APPROACHING A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PERIOD FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEAD FINE FUELS IN PLACE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD SUCH AS WARM PERIODS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. FIRE DANGER CAN BE DETERMINED THROUGH EITHER THE 10-HOUR AND 100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES...OR THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI). THE KBDI INDEX IS BROKEN INTO FOUR CATEGORIES WHICH ARE USED TO DETERMINE THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF GROUND FUELS TO FIRE DANGER. THE FOUR CATEGORIES AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOW...WET WITH LITTLE DANGER OF FIRE INITIATION MODERATE...DRYING OCCURRING WITH SOME FIRE DANGER HIGH...GROUND COVER DRY AND WILL BURN READILY EXTREME...DEAD AND LIVE FUELS WILL BURN READILY THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF THE KBDI INDEX...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS ARE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS. A DAILY GRAPHIC OF THE KBDI INDEX AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND ON THE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (WFAS) WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.WFAS.US OR THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF/FORECASTS/FIREWX/FIREWX.PHP THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE ALSO HAS ADDITIONAL DATA AND FORECASTS RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS THE LATEST 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS...WHICH COVER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FROM MARCH 26 TO APRIL 3...IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL IS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL IS 1.97 INCHES AT BOTH VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE. THE LATEST 90 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH COVERS APRIL...MAY AND JUNE...IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT: CHRIS BUTTLER CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE CHRISTOPHER.BUTTLER@NOAA.GOV RELATED WEB SITES LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION HTTP:://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF ADDITIONAL RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV CNPPD - HTTP://CNPPD.COM/LAKE_LEVELS.HTM US DROUGHT MONITOR HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...USGS...AND THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER AND IRRIGATION DISTRICT. NEXT ISSUANCE THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH. THE NEXT ISSUANCE WILL BE APRIL 17 2008.
JWS/MM/DP/KAR/CLB
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