000
FXUS66 KLOX 151810
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...
JUST A QUICK NOTE TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE NO MORNING UPDATE
AS THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. IN FACT...I DO NOT
FORESEE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
WEATHER HEADLINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONSPIRE WITH NEUTRAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY
TODAY AND TUESDAY.

THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPORT SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE HEAT TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ONE SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST MAY CONCERN THE MARINE CLOUDS. THE
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT. THIS
QUESTION WILL BE ANSWERED WITH A LAST MINUTE DECISION BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

FINALLY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND COMBINED WITH SLIGHT COOLING AND DECREASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE MENTIONED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
INSPIRE AN INCREASE IN MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

.FIRE WX...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED THIS MORNING. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR OTHER MOUNTAIN FIRE
WEATHER ZONES REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS AND EC CAN ONLY AGREES
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN DIVERGE AS THEY ATTEMPT TO HANDLE
A SMALL LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THE GFS IS AS USUAL CUT OFF
HAPPY AND KEEPS THE LOW TIGHTLY BUNCHED AND MOVES IT DOWN THE CA
COAST WHILE THE EC OPENS IT UP AND MOVES IT INTO IDAHO. GFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE GFS SOLN IS QUESTIONABLE AND LEANED TO
THE EC FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. THAT SAID LOOK FOR TROFING PATTER
THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE US NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. HIGHER HGTS SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER WHILE RISING HGTS WILL WARM
THINGS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1745Z
MARINE LAYER BETWEEN 008-012...WITH A FAIRLY SCATTERED STRATUS
PATTERN. OTHER THAN CIGS AT KSMX AND SOME HZ AT KOXR KLAX AND
KLGB...ALL AIRPORTS ARE VFR. VFR CATS SHOULD PREVAIL EVERYWHERE
AFTER 19Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT EXPECTED AT KSBA KOXR AND KLAX.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SIMILAR STRATUS AT KSMX AND KSBP. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT STRATUS WILL DO AT KOXR KLAX AND KOXR...BUT BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING CIG FREE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FROM 20Z THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
STRONGER THAN NORMAL WEST WIND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
SOME MVFR HAZE AFTER 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SWEET/RORKE
AVIATION...HALL

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