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FXUS66 KLOX 201146 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
446 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2008

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL COAST AND
ACROSS THE SALINAS VALLEY IN SLO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STRATUS
MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WAS BEGINNING TO CURL
TOWARD THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AS AN EDDY CRCLN TRIES TO DEVELOP.
BLV THAT AT LEAST PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY
CST BY DAYBREAK. WITH TEMPS AT 850/950 MB DOWN 2 TO 3 DEGREES C
ACROSS THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FROM FRI...BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOCALLY GUSTY NW TO NLY WINDS CONTD ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY THIS
MORNING...BUT WINDS WERE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD TODAY...BUT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALF. AT THE SFC DECENT LOW LVL N-S GRADS
SHOULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GOOD W-E GRADS...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD AFFECT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY
TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH NWLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WDSPRD ACROSS
THE MTNS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES TONIGHT...SO EXPECT LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN MOST AREAS.

UPSLOPE NLY FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE NRN SLOPES OF
THE L.A/VTU COUNTY MTNS TONIGHT/SUN MORNING. THE WRF SHOWS A
STRONGER EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT/SUN MORNING...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
LOW CLDS/FOG IN CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND PROBABLY VTU COUNTIES. CLOUDS
SHOULD AGAIN BE FAIRLY WDSPRD ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA
YNEZ/SALINAS VALLEYS. WITH THE EDDY CRCLN...SOME CLOUDS MAY PUSH
INTO THE SAN GABRIEL AND POSSIBLY SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HGTS/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND
DESERTS. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT COOLING AT 950 MB SHOULD BRING SLIGHT
COOLING TO COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS ON SUNDAY.

THE WRF SHOWS SOMEWHAT WEAKER N-S GRADS AND NWLY LOW LVL FLOW SUN
NIGHT/MON...SO EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF WINDS IN THE MTNS AND
ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE SBA COUNTY S CST. THERE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER INLAND PENETRATION OF THE STRATUS SUN NIGHT/MON.
WITH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEGINNING TO EDGE UPWARD ON MON...THERE MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS...BUT WITH 950
MB TEMPS CHANGING LITTLE...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPS W OF THE MTNS FOR MON.

.LONG TERM...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AS A FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE W CST. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LVL ONSHORE GRADS
WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW MON
NIGHT/TUE...WITH CLOUDS PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CSTL PLAIN. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON TUE...MOST
NOTICEABLY IN THE VLYS. MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK...SPECIFICALLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER HIGH WHICH IS NOW FCST TO BE SE OF THE FCST AREA AS OPPOSED TO
RIGHT OVER THE AREA. HEIGHTS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH...AND MODELS
STILL SHOW WEAK OFFSHORE TO NEUTRAL LOW LVL FLOW...AT LEAST WED AND
THU MORNINGS. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WARMING ON WED...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE
90S IN WARMER LOCATIONS...THEN IT WILL CONT TO BE RATHER WARM THU
AND FRI. MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN COVERAGE WED THRU
MORNING...CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CST.


&&

.AVIATION...20/1146Z.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SCATTERING OUT AT
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AROUND THE SAME TIME TO
LATER THAN LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WHILE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AT LOS ANGELES COUNTY
COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO
KOXR...KBUR...AND KVNY AFTER 11Z TONIGHT.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z
TONIGHT...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE
KLAX AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. AFTER 08Z TONIGHT...THERE IS A 80
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 11Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 11Z TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES