000
FXUS66 KLOX 162056
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, ESPECIALLY LA COUNTY, KILLING THE
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, GRADIENTS TRENDED STRONGLY ONSHORE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPED OVER LA COUNTY. SO FAR NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS,
THOUGH THERE WAS A REPORT OF SOME SPRINKLES NEAR BURBANK THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, STILL SOME HEATING TO GO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.

MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS FAR NORTH AS VENTURA
COUNTY TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. INLAND
PUSH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST.

MODELS ACTUALLY INDICATE A VERY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS ON
WED AS THE TROF OVER NRN CA LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE LIKELY
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD
SOME CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
ONSHORE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. THE
MODELS INDICATED AT LEAST AS MUCH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON WED AS
TODAY SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS.

SLIGHT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES NRN CA.
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO OVER SFO FRI
SO DAYTIME HIGHS SHOUL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. MARINE LYR WILL
DEEPEN AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...NO HUGE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS THE TROF MOVES EAST AND
HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA. BY MON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A
DEEPER TROF SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, ON TUE THE
GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND COOLER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE TROF EAST
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE FOR TUE AS IT`S
TOO SOON TO PLAY FAVORITES.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1935Z.
ODD SITUATION OF BKN CONDITIONS AT KLGB WILL GO AWAY WITHIN THE
HOUR. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
LATE TONIGHT TO ALL COASTAL TAFS EXCEPT KSBA WHICH WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. POSSIBLE DIFFICULTY WITH LLWS IN KSBA THIS
EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING IN SOONER
THAN DEPICTED BY THE CURRENT TAF...PERHAPS BY 05Z.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE...IN CLEAR
SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES