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000 FXUS66 KLOX 162056 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 155 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, ESPECIALLY LA COUNTY, KILLING THE TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, GRADIENTS TRENDED STRONGLY ONSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPED OVER LA COUNTY. SO FAR NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS, THOUGH THERE WAS A REPORT OF SOME SPRINKLES NEAR BURBANK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, STILL SOME HEATING TO GO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS FAR NORTH AS VENTURA COUNTY TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. INLAND PUSH SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST. MODELS ACTUALLY INDICATE A VERY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS ON WED AS THE TROF OVER NRN CA LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT, WE LIKELY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD SOME CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ONSHORE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. THE MODELS INDICATED AT LEAST AS MUCH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON WED AS TODAY SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS. SLIGHT COOLING ON THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES NRN CA. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO OVER SFO FRI SO DAYTIME HIGHS SHOUL DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES. MARINE LYR WILL DEEPEN AND SPREAD INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...NO HUGE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS THE TROF MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA. BY MON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A DEEPER TROF SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, ON TUE THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND COOLER WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE TROF EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SO FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE FOR TUE AS IT`S TOO SOON TO PLAY FAVORITES. && .AVIATION...16/1935Z. ODD SITUATION OF BKN CONDITIONS AT KLGB WILL GO AWAY WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT TO ALL COASTAL TAFS EXCEPT KSBA WHICH WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. POSSIBLE DIFFICULTY WITH LLWS IN KSBA THIS EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING IN SOONER THAN DEPICTED BY THE CURRENT TAF...PERHAPS BY 05Z. KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE...IN CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...WOFFORD AVIATION...SWEET WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES