000
FXUS66 KLOX 152214
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...
I DO NOT FORESEE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE WEATHER HEADLINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONSPIRE WITH
NEUTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND TUESDAY.

THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPORT SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE HEAT TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ONE SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST MAY CONCERN THE MARINE CLOUDS. THE
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT. THIS
QUESTION WILL BE ANSWERED WITH A LAST MINUTE DECISION BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

FINALLY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND COMBINED WITH SLIGHT COOLING AND DECREASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE MENTIONED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

MEANWHILE...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
INSPIRE AN INCREASE IN MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR COASTAL SECTIONS
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

.FIRE WX...

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAIN FIRE WEATHER ZONES REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...GFS AND EC ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AS THEY
DEPICT A SMALL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. LOOK FOR TROFING
PATTER THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE US NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS
OVER THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE WEEKEND MAY BRING A SLIGHT
WARMUP AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1745Z
MARINE LAYER BETWEEN 008-012...WITH A FAIRLY SCATTERED STRATUS
PATTERN. OTHER THAN CIGS AT KSMX AND SOME HZ AT KOXR KLAX AND
KLGB...ALL AIRPORTS ARE VFR. VFR CATS SHOULD PREVAIL EVERYWHERE
AFTER 19Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST...WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT EXPECTED AT KSBA KOXR AND KLAX.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SIMILAR STRATUS AT KSMX AND KSBP. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT STRATUS WILL DO AT KOXR KLAX AND KOXR...BUT BEST
CHANCE OF STAYING CIG FREE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FROM 20Z THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
STRONGER THAN NORMAL WEST WIND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
SOME MVFR HAZE AFTER 12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SWEET
AVIATION...KITTELL

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