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000 FXUS66 KLOX 171100 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 400 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2008 .SHORT TERM... MARINE LAYER HAS RISEN TO 1200 TO 1300 FEET AND GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT 3 MB ONSHORE BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE EAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO A 4 MB ONSHORE TREND. THIS WILL NOT COOL THE VLYS MUCH...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...SINCE THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE THAN YDY. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YDY WITH SUNNY SKIES AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPS ON THE COAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY WHILE THE SALINAS VLY WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. STILL ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS TO WARRENT A SLGT CHC OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS BUT IF THEY DO FORM THEY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THAN YDY DUE TO THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HGTS THE GRADIENTS AND THE MARINE LAYER THURSDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT THAT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY AND THERE WILL BE NO CHC OF TSTM FORMATION. A NEGITIVE TILT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NRN CA FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LIFT THE MARINE LAYER INTO ALL COASTS AND VLYS AND COOL THINGS DOWN. THE NAM HOWEVER THROWS A LITTLE CURVE INTO THE MIX AND FORECASTS ZERO MARINE LAYER FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE IS LITTLE TO INDICATE WHY SUCH A CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE OTHER THAN A WEAKER EDDY. WENT AGAINST GUIDENCE AND DID BRING A GOOD MARINE LAYER WITH COOLER TEMPS. .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... 16/1935Z KLAX... KBUR... && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...BRUNO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES