Industry output and employment (EXCERPT), Monthly Labor Review Online, Nov. 1993

The American Workforce, 1992 to 2005
Industry output and employment

James C. Franklin

Employment in the U.S. economy is projected to increase by 26.4 million over the 1992-2005 period, rising from 121.1 million to 147.5 million. The projected annual average growth rate of 1.5 percent is slightly faster than the 1.4-percent rate recorded for the preceding 13-year period, 1979 through 1992. Nonfarm wage and salary jobs are projected to rise from 107.9 million to almost 133 million, and to account for 25.1 million of the 26.4 million increase in total employment. The number of nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers is projected to increase from 8.8 million to 10.4 million. For the agricultural sector, the combined number of self-employed workers and wage and salary workers is projected to remain unchanged at 3.3 million workers. The number of private household workers is expected to continue to decline, falling from the 1992 level of 1.1 million to 0. 8 million.

There are several macroeconomic factors that are expected to affect industry output and employment growth: demographic changes (aging of the population, slowing rate of growth of the labor supply), a projected decline in defense spending, expected continued growth of business investment m equipment, a strong increase in personal consumption expenditures, and a gradual decline in the exchange rate of the dollar concomitant with a gradually improving net export level.¹ All of these factors have general effects on industry output and employment, and some will have special effects on specific industries.

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Footnotes
¹ For further information of the macroeconomic influences, see Norman C. Saunders, "The U.S. economy; framework for BLS projections," pp. 11-30.

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