Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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000 FGUS73 KGLD 292102 ESFGLD KSC063-129-300258- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 358 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND OFFICE HAS RECENTLY IMPLEMENTED LONG RANGE AHPS RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR SOME OF ITS FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 3 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID SEPTEMBER 29, 2008 - DECEMBER 28, 2008 LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- HACKBERRY CREEK GOVE 19.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER LENORA 10.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.2 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS). LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE END OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. $$