Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000 FXUS65 KBOU 162018 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 200 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2008 .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ATTM...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TNT. A BIT OF ASCENT AND MID LVL MSTR SKIRTS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE VERY LOW POPS THERE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MODEST W-NW WINDS OVER THE FRONT RANGE OVER TO THE N-NE. HOWEVER BEYOND A WIND SHIFT AND TEMPORARY GUSTS...THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THRU TNT. BEHIND THE TROF THIS EVENING...GUSTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AS NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING 30-40KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW TNT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 50-60KT RANGE OVER THE TYPICAL WINDY LOCATIONS. WINDS SUBSIDE FRI AM AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDSF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MID LVL FLOW DECREASES. .LONG TERM...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...EXPECT SATURDAYS TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGRESS WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOK FOR MID/UPPER 70S OVER THE PLAINS AND 50S TO UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOW MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERLAYS THE STATE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND MOVE IT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS. AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK QG VERTICAL VELOCITY VALUES FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE COOLING MONDAY...TEMP GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER 7-10 F REDUCTION IN DAYTIME TEMPS. FOR THE STRONG SYSTEM BEING ADVERTISED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH A MUCH MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DECREASES POPS BY 10 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOVING EAST A LOT QUICKER AND ONLY THE TAIL END OF THE MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT INTO NERN COLORADO. WITH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH...TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO WARM A BIT BEFORE THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY W-NW WINDS UP TO 25KT AT BJC/DEN WILL SHIFT N-NE AROUND 03Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS WILL PERSIST. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN
