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November 1989, Vol. 112, No. 11

Projections summary and emerging issues

Ronald E. Kutscher

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed projections to the year 2000. Three alternative projections-moderate growth, low growth, and high growth-were prepared. This article summarizes these projections for the 1988-2000 period-the latest of the Bureau's regular projections.

The four articles presented in this issue have provided detailed information on projections of economic growth, the labor force, and industry and occupational employment.

This article focuses on some important issues raised by these projections. Among these issues are the relationship of productivity growth to expected future increases in our standard of living, our global competitiveness, and the extent of educational preparation needed for the types of jobs our economy is increasingly generating, particularly for minorities who represent a growing share of the labor force. The problem of a general education shortfall is also discussed.

In the moderate or middle set of projections, the rate of economic growth, as measured by real gross national product (GNP) for the 1988-2000 period, shows an increase of 2.3 percent per year. This represents more than a 30-percent expansion over the projected period. However, this is a slower rate of GNP growth than the 2.9-percent rate of annual growth recorded for the 1976-88 period.¹ Labor force growth and productivity play important but offsetting roles in the slower projected rate of real GNP growth.

This excerpt is from an article published in the November 1989 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The full text of the article is available in Adobe Acrobat's Portable Document Format (PDF). See How to view a PDF file for more information.

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Footnotes
¹ See the article by Norman C. Saunders in this issue, pp. 13-24, for a detailed discussion of projected GNP, factors which are important to the rate of growth, and the composition of GNP.

Related BLS programs
Employment Projections

 

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Outlook 2000:
New labor force projections, spanning 1988 to 2000.—Nov. 1989.

The aggregate structure of the economy.—Nov. 1989.

 

Industry output and employment: a slower trend for the nineties.—Nov. 1989.

 

Projections of occupational employment, 1988-2000.—Nov. 1989.

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