America's vulnerability to weather, water, and climate variability is rising as more of the population moves into harm's way and national and global economies become more complex. Approximately 40 percent of Americans—some 100 million—currently reside in areas of high risk to natural disasters, with the number climbing yearly. National and global economies are becoming entwined in an intricate web of interdependencies so complex that disruption in one part by weather or water events (e.g., transporta tion impacts caused by a major snow storm in one region) can reverberate with costs and delays in other parts of the Nation or world. During the next century, historically unprecedented situations will arise in which weather and climate events could significantly challenge the way Americans live or cause dramatic departures in the way the economy functions. Innovative use of weather, water, and climate information will increase our safety and productivity and improve the Nation's competitiveness to enhance our standard of living. The NWS will be challenged to meet this expanded need for high quality weather, water, and climate services.

STRATEGIC CONTEXT

The Changing World: Opportunities and Challenges.

Explosion of Information Technology

Computer speed and capacity will continue to increase with a corresponding decrease in hardware and communications costs. Greater and faster computer power will provide the mechanism for forecasters to extract critical hydrometeorological information and predict natural hazards related to weather, water, and climate with increasing confidence. Expanding information technology capabilities will enable the NWS to distribute high resolution digital forecast databases that provide the flexibility for users to tailor data and information to meet specific needs. . 

Strengthen Linkages Among the
Disciplines of Weather, Water,
and Climate Prediction

Customers and partners have advocated a seamless set of observed and forecast products cutting across the lines of weather, water, and climate and incorporating forecast time scales from minutes to years. The rapid advancement of the sciences of meteorology, hydrology, and climate during the next 6 years (2000 - 2005) will strengthen the linkages among the three disciplines. Accurate and higher resolution forecasts of the hydrosphere, with time scales ranging from minutes to years, will be available. Hydrological forecasting will use quantitative precipitation forecasts (known as QPF), especially with respect to flash floods and river levels, and will rely on climate forecasts for long-term trends. Increasingly reliable climate and long-term hydrological predictions will benefit the Nation's economy and allow the country to prevent natural hazards from becoming natural disasters.

Increased Need to Work More Effectively with Partners to
Improve and Expand Services
 

"The highly accurate long-range predictions issued by the [NWS] Climate Prediction Center  . . . led California to conduct major mitigation efforts . . . [that] led to a reduction in losses of about $1 billion."  Stanley A. Changnon, "Impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño — General Weather in the U.S."; to be published: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

The NWS serves, in cooperation with many partners including the private sector and the universities, all people and institutions in the United States with timely weather, water, and climate information; forecasts; and warnings. The increasing interest in and utility of weather, water, and climate information coupled with the rapid advances of science and technology will expand the opportunities for both NWS and the private sector. By 2005, more public and private organizations will recognize that weather, water, and climate information has a positive and marked influence on a myriad of business and economic decisions. The private sector will expand into new sectors of the economy with a concomitant demand for more and better information from the NWS. Improved cooperation with our partners in enhancing distribution systems, establishing and accomplishing research objectives, and understanding customer needs will be necessary. Our partners in the university community and national laboratories will play an essential role in developing a better understanding of the Earth's hydrosphere, including the impact of solar activity on the Earth's environment.

A More Responsive and Efficient Government

The American people will continue to demand a responsive and efficient Government. To achieve the highest levels of Government operation will require a more thorough understanding of how customers and partners use NWS products and services. It also will require that managerial structures be in place to ensure cost-efficient operations. Working with our parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the opportunity exists to build on the best business practices of the private sector and other Government agencies (Federal, state, and local) to develop a more responsive and efficient agency.

STRATEGIC CONTEXT

National Weather Service - Past and Future

Looking to the next century, the NWS is at a crossroads. Completing the modernization provides the basis for the NWS to better serve the Nation. The path for advancement is clear. Emerging scientific and technological capabilities in weather, water, and climate prediction are matched by increasing national needs for improved warnings and forecasts and a more integrated NWS focus in these three scientific disciplines. The NWS is now postured to blend forecasts in these areas into a seamless suite of products and services — accurate and timely products with high resolution and in a format that will provide users the flexibility to tailor the information to their specific needs. The characterization of a seamless suite of products and services means that by 2005 the NWS will provide weather, water, and climate forecasts for a specific geographic area from time scales of minutes to seasons or years. Climate services will be provided months in advance to allow communities and businesses to prepare for extreme weather and water conditions. These will be further supported by forecasts that assess the threat of particular hazardous conditions (e.g., heavy precipitation or flooding) for specific areas of the country up to 2 weeks in advance. Finally, very precise forecasts of individual events (e.g., flash floods) will be provided hours and minutes in advance. In contrast, many of today's products and services are prepared independently of other products and services for the same geographic area. This results in potential inconsistencies and in less effective use of data and computational power. By 2005, NWS forecasts will be continuous, cumulative, consistent, relevant, and make the most effective use of data and computing power of the agency. .

Our Vision is to be:

America's no surprise weather service. A world-class team of professionals who:
 

	Produce and deliver quality forecasts you can trust when you need them most
	Use cutting edge techniques
	Provide services in a cost-effective manner
	Strive to eliminate weather-related fatalities and improve the economic value of weather information

Our Values are:
 

	Service above self
	Our customers and partners
	Respect and trust of others and the diversity of our agency
	Open exchange of information and ideas
	Commitment to integrity, teamwork, self-improvement, high standards, and the scientific approach to our mission
	An innovative and empowered work force

Our focus through 2005 will be to build on the NWS modernization and provide a seamless suite of weather, water, and climate products and services with time scales ranging from minutes to years. These products will be relevant to user needs, accurate, and timely.

This strategic plan, through the goals, objectives, and performance measures, lays out the path we will take to accomplish our mission, achieve the focus and vision, and integrate our core values throughout NWS. .

STRATEGIC CONTEXT

Serving Our Customers

	American society is sensitive to changes in weather, water, and climate conditions at different scales of interest and action, ranging from individual citizens to households, businesses, organizations, communities, states, and the Nation as a whole. .
	Customer needs for weather, water, and climate information vary markedly by geographic region and by season.

These varied needs are met by NOAA and NWS products and services as well as tailored products created by our partners. Our partners help the NWS collect and share user needs, distribute NWS products directly to the American public, better understand and apply technology and science, and obtain observational data. Better service to America will be achieved by building on the knowledge base and best practices of our partners and improving the cooperation among all components of the weather provider system.

Relation to the Department of Commerce
and NOAA Strategic Plans

The Department of Commerce (DOC) and NOAA provide us with the policy direction and resources to accomplish our mission. For year 2005, NOAA envisions a world in which societal and economic decisions are coupled strongly with a comprehensive understanding of the environment. The NWS vision of a no surprise weather service is in concert with NOAA's view.

The DOC and NOAA have given the NWS important guidance for future action to respond to national needs. This guidance is reflected in the strategic goals of DOC and NOAA. The NWS embraces the challenges and actions in the DOC and NOAA strategic plans and will support the visions by:
 

	Being a credible and responsive organization
	Producing budgets based on strategic planning
	Assessing performance with quantitative measures
	Administering policy faithfully

The NWS is one of the 32 High Impact Agencies in the Executive Branch of the U.S. Government. As a High Impact Agency, the NWS has a special mandate to strive for new standards of customer service and improved mission performance using the best practices available. This strategic plan is our road map to serve America with distinction. .

VISION & GOALS 2000-2005

Agenda for Action - Interlocking Goals for Advancement

The NWS has five strategic goals to advance its service to America. To achieve success and to accomplish our mission, the NWS will pursue each goal in a manner that reinforces the others.

1.0 Deliver Better Products and Services

Deliver a credible, timely, and relevant suite of seamless weather, water, and climate products and services which exploit technology to the fullest to meet customer and partner needs.

Our passion is to meet our customer and partner needs. It is the essence of our mission delivery. Our highest priority is to translate customer and partner needs into products and services that are trusted when needed most. We will meet these needs with a seamless suite of weather, water, and climate products of increasingly higher resolution and accuracy.

1.1 Expand and improve the existing weather, water, and climate product and service line:

 

Public Services

• Increase the accuracy and timeliness of NWS warnings.

Performance Measures:
 

	Reduce the national average tornado warning false alarm rate from 0.80 (1998) to 0.69 or lower and increase the probability of detection from 0.64 (1998) to 0.73 or higher and the lead time from 11 minutes (1998) to 13 minutes (2005).
	Decrease the hurricane track 48-hr forecast error to 133 nautical miles. Improve hurricane wind speed forecasts by 20 percent (2005).
	Increase probability of detection of winter storms to 90 percent and the lead time to 15 hours (2005).
	Increase flash-flood warning lead time from 44 minutes (1999) to 48 minutes (2005).

• Extend the time periods and improve the accuracy and formats of weather, water, and climate forecast products.

Performance Measures:

 

	Extend weather forecasts to 7 days (2000).
	Provide weather, water, and climate forecasts in probabilistic terms (2005).
	Extend precipitation forecasts to 3 days, and attain current Day 2 accuracy at Day 3 (2005).
	Improve numerical model guidance over the Pacific and West Coast so it is as accurate as the rest of the country (2005).

• Improve the accessibility and availability of weather, water, and climate information to the American people.

                    Performance Measures:

 

	Post NWS products and data on the Internet in graphic-oriented format (2002).
	Increase coverage of the NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) transmitter network to 95 percent of U.S. population (2006).
	Deploy improved NWR voice for critical products (2003).

•   Improve accessibility of weather, water, and climate information to high risk communities¹.

Performance Measures:
 

	Increase NWR coverage to 100 percent in hazardous weather high-risk areas (2005).
	Where demographics demand, convert NWR products into multilingual formats (2003)

 

Emergency Management

Enhance partnerships with the emergency management community and increase the lead time for information delivered on emergency weather and water situations.

Performance Measures:
 

	Establish "StormReady"2 community recognition program, and designate 30 communities as "StormReady" each year.
	Establish two-way links to state emergency management communications infrastructure (2005).

 

Aviation Services

Improve terminal and domestic en route warnings and forecasts.

Performance Measures:
 

	Ensure local airport warnings for established criteria have a probability of detection of at least 0.80 and a false alarm rate of 0.40 or less (2005).
	Reduce false alarm rate from 52 percent (1998) to 30 percent and increase the probability of detection by 50 percent for the 0- to 12-hour period for critical ceiling (200 feet) and visibility (1/4 mile) forecasts as contained in aviation terminal forecasts (2005).
	Increase probability of detection by 50 percent and reduce false alarm rate by 50 percent for the 0- to 12-hour aviation terminal forecasts of ceiling and visibility within the instrument flight rules (IFR) and marginal visual flight rules (MVFR) categories (2005).
	Increase the probability of detection for turbulence, icing, and thunderstorm warnings by 50 percent, and reduce the false alarm rate by 50 percent (2005).
	Implement graphical aviation products capable of cockpit display. (2005).

 

Marine Services

• Extend and improve the accuracy of marine (wind and wave) forecasts.

Performance Measures:
 

	Improve the accuracy by 20 percent of wind and wave forecasts (2005).
	Extend wind and wave forecasts from 36 hours out to 7 days (2005).
	Improve by 15 percent the lead time and accuracy for Storm, Gale, and Small Craft Advisories (2005).
	Improve by 20 percent the lead time and probability of detection for Special Marine Warnings (2005).
	Reduce over-warned coastline from the 1998 average of 45 miles to 30 miles (2005).

• Improve the format and distribution of marine products.

Performance Measures:

 

	Increase NWR programming to include routine and special marine products, and tailor it to needs of marine community (2005).
	Increase the number of graphic marine forecasts (2005).

 

Flood Forecasting and Water Management

Improve accuracy and lead time of hydrological forecasts and relevance of products.

Performance Measures:

 

	Deploy the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) to 50 percent of river forecast sites (2005).
	Specify the confidence level of all river and flood forecasts produced by the AHPS and increase accuracy at AHPS points by 25 percent (2005).
	Integrate within AWIPS the functionality of all hydrologic applications required to support Weather Forecast Office and River Forecast Center operations (2005).

Agenda for Action - Interlocking Goals for Advancement

Fire Services

Implement a seamless suite of fire-weather products and services uniformly across the Nation.

"Total dollar amount of insured property in the hurricane prone coastal counties of the U.S. is estimated to be over $3.15 trillion." -Institute for Business and Home Home Safety, 1993

Performance Measures:

 

	Implement Day 1 to seasonal outlook products for critical fire-weather elements and patterns (2002).
	Specify the forecast confidence on all national outlook and local forecast products (2005).
	Develop baseline for fire-weather parameters and improve accuracy by 30 percent (2005).

 

Space Services

Integrate space weather forecasts into the NWS operational product suite.

Performance Measures:

 

Integrate totally the operational forecast production process into NWS operations (2005).

1.2 Produce a seamless suite of products and services.

• Produce a seamless suite of products and services linking weather, water, and climate with an emphasis on emerging climate products.

Performance Measures:

 

	Introduce threat assessments which link climate events to hazardous weather forecasts (2000).
	Link climate forecasts and threat assessments to local weather and water forecasts (2002).

• Improve the use, integration, quality, and cost effectiveness of observations.

 

	Achieve the optimal mix of observing and data processing systems to support the NWS mission (2005).
	Complete modernization or replacement of the Radiosonde Network, Cooperative Observer Program, Marine Observation Networks, and Voluntary Observing Ship Program (2005).
	Support the Global Ocean Observing System (known as GOOS) and Global Climate Observing System (known as GCOS) by building on NWS and other observing systems (2005).

1.3 Nurture critical partnerships to provide effective and efficient delivery of NWS products and services.

Performance Measures:

 

	Increase the number of state and local emergency managers trained in the NOAA/Federal Emergency Management Agency core hazard courses by 5% annually (2005).
	Expand fire-weather incident response from regional to nationwide and for all hazards (2005).
	Eliminate backlog of Federal Aviation Administration pilot weather briefer certifications (2005).
	Ensure, in concert with the U.S. Coast Guard, a delivery rate of 99.5 percent of all marine weather products within 5 minutes of schedule (2005).

1.4 Implement a customer service improvement program.

Performance Measures:

 

	Establish a customer satisfaction index (2003).
	Track customer index with the goal of a 10 percent increase yearly (2005).

2.0 Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances

Aggressively and continually infuse science and technological advances to improve products and delivery of services that best meet and anticipate customer needs.

Sound science and innovative technologies are the foundation of NWS product and service quality. Improving products and services to meet customer and partner needs in the future is critically dependent on providing a well trained work force with a continual infusion of new and proven scientific ideas and technological systems.

2.1 As operational leaders in weather, water, and climate, expand cooperation with the entire research community to promote and guide research and development toward product- and service-improvement goals.

Performance Measures:

 

	Link NOAA research and development activities to NWS improvement goals (2000).
	Based on NWS service priorities, develop a multi-year research plan and process involving the NWS and its research partners (2005).
	Assess annually the impact of NWS service improvement goals on research and development programs and initiatives including the Natural Disaster Reduction Initiative, the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the U.S. Weather Research Program, and the Collaborative Science Technology and Applied Research Program among others.

2.2 Reduce the time required to implement proven research and technology into operations.

Performance Measures:

 

	Increase the number of cooperative alliances to 5 percent per year.
	Establish six experimental test beds to accelerate the infusion of new science and technology into the forecast process (2005).
	Sustain the NWS/Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (known as COMET) outreach program.
	Develop and implement standardized procedures for introducing science and technology into the forecast process (2005).

2.3 Improve data assimilation systems and numerical forecasts.

Performance Measures:

 

	Develop and implement a weather research and forecast community model (2004).
	Develop and implement the next generation Global/Climate prediction system (2005).
	Decrease by 50 percent the time necessary to incorporate new satellite data sets into an operational assimilation system (2005).
	Incorporate Doppler radar data into operational mesoscale models (2002).

2.4 Improve understanding and prediction of long-term climate variability.

Performance Measures:

 

	Increase forecast accuracy for long-term decadal trends by 25 percent (2004).
	Implement, with our partners, a coupled atmospheric-oceanic model for global data assimilation and for seasonal to interannual to decadal prediction. (2005).

2.5 Prepare and disseminate NWS products in a form that offers high resolution and maximum flexibility to customers and partners.

Performance Measures:

 

Prepare and disseminate NWS forecast products in digital form (2003).

VISION & GOALS 2000-2005

Agenda for Action - Interlocking Goals for Advancement

3.0 Exercise Global Leadership

Strengthen U.S. leadership on emerging applications of weather, water, and climate information to meet environmental and economic challenges.

Global weather, water, and climate issues will dominate the attention of the international community through 2005 and beyond. Economic and technological linkages among countries will further translate international concerns to the local level and from the local to regional and global levels. NOAA/NWS is positioned to take advantage of emerging applications to work with our partners in addressing global challenges for the betterment of the Nation and the world. We are poised with the tools, capabilities, and partnerships to seize the opportunity to provide leadership for these emerging and exciting challenges.

3.1 Promote the open exchange of data and information worldwide.

Performance Measures:

 

	Continue to actively advocate open exchange of information worldwide.
	Use regional/international forums to disseminate information on new affordable data and information systems as they become available.
	Expand the number of international Emergency Manager Weather Information Network (EMWIN) receiving stations by 50 percent (2005).

3.2 Increase U.S. participation in international activities.

Performance Measures:

 

	Develop and implement in association with all meteorological service agencies in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Region IV3, an integrated regional observing system (2005).
	Establish a regional maintenance activity for surface and upper-air observing systems in developing countries in WMO Region IV (2002).

3.3 Foster national and international education efforts and technology transfer programs.

Performance Measures:
 

	Develop courses in "distance learning over Internet" in meteorology and hydrology in at least two languages (initiate 3 courses by 2000, and 10 courses by 2005).
	Develop a course in "Application of Climate Data" for international students (2002).

3.4 Continue U.S. leadership of the International Tsunami and Volcanic Ash Programs.

Performance Measures:

 

	Improve the timeliness, accuracy, reliability, coverage, and effectiveness of tsunami warnings.
	Expand U.S. Tsunami Program to the Caribbean area (2005).
	Host one meeting a year of the Coordinators of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.
	Continue active U.S. support to the International Tsunami Warning Program.
	Continue U.S. efforts to standardize global response to volcanic activity.

4.0 Change the NWS Organizational Culture

Work with our people to create an organizational culture which embraces change; values service; promotes teamwork with customers, partners, and each other; and fosters innovation in mission and vision accomplishment.

The heart and soul of the NWS are its people. They accomplish the mission and convert the vision into reality. With energized, highly trained, and service-oriented people, we will achieve success. We are committed to building on the organizational culture which embraces change, values service and professionalism, and promotes teamwork in serving our customers and partners.

4.1 Implement human resource and management practices to support our Vision and reflect our Core Values.

Performance Measures:

 

	Review the 1998 and 1999 National Partnership for Reinventing Government Employee Survey Results and 1999 NOAA Survey Feedback and Action (SFA) results4, and other relevant documents to determine the organizational culture deficits related to implementing the NWS Vision (2000).
	Develop and implement an improvement plan to address culture deficits with specific targets tied to the results of applicable survey instruments in 2001 and beyond.
	Implement effective tools to assess management performance, and provide feedback to managers (2002).
	Implement core competencies for all supervisors and leaders (2005).

4.2 Place decision and budget authority at the lowest and most effective levels.

Performance Measure:

 

Implement a financial information management system which supports delegation of budget authority; periodically review operating procedures to ensure delegation of authority to lowest appropriate level (2005).

4.3 Encourage, recognize, and reward innovation at all levels, especially for improved service to customers.

Performance Measure:

 

Incorporate customer satisfaction indices (refer to 1.4) and reduced operating costs when performing employee appraisals and determining employee recognition (2005).

4.4 Enhance the professional development and training program for our work force to include teamwork, leadership, diversity, EEO, customer service, and implementing change.

Performance Measures:

 

	Complete leadership training for all supervisors and leaders (2005).
	Establish and apply Baseline Proficiency Standards (known as BPS) to all operational positions (2005).
	Ensure all employees have an individual development plan (2003).
	Expand the National Strategic Training and Education Plan (known as NSTEP) to address all training needs of the work force (2005).

4.5 Capitalize on the diversity of our work force to improve participation, communication, and overall organizational performance.

Performance Measures:

 

	Use geographically and functionally diverse teams to implement this strategic plan (2000).
	Establish baseline Managing Diversity Performance Measures (2001).
	Set targets for Managing Diversity performance measures for 2002 and beyond, using 2001 as a baseline (2002).

4.6 Increase the representation of women, minorities, and people with disabilities in NWS.

Performance Measure:

 

Increase the representation of women, minorities, and people with disabilities in the NWS as compared to the National Civilian Labor Force (NCLF). Use 1999 as baseline; set targets for 2000 and beyond.

5.0 Manage NWS Resources

Create a responsive support system, adaptable to changing needs and opportunities which maximizes the return on investment to America.

Supporting the mission and vision of the NWS are the critical systems, processes, relationships, mechanisms, and equipment. Our support systems must be quickly adaptable to changing conditions and challenges. We are committed to shaping our infrastructure to facilitate the effective, productive, and cost-effective delivery of products and services to our customers and partners.

5.1 Implement an integrated policy, planning, budgeting, assessment, and accountability system that links decision making and goals to program implementation and evaluation.

• Link planning processes into a system that cascades from strategic to operational to individual performance plans.

Performance Measures:

 

	Align NWS budget and reporting process with the strategic plan for 2003 budget (2002).
	Put performance measures in place for programs and operations (2000).
	Put annual operating plans in place for all entities of NWS linked to the strategic plan (2000). Individual performance plans linked to annual plan (2001).

• Ensure operational costs are the minimum required to carry out the NWS mission and meet the goals of this strategic plan.

Performance Measure:

 

Base decisions to eliminate or add services or activities on assessment of costs to be incurred and the benefits to be achieved.

5.2 Leverage information technology to improve the cost effectiveness of NWS systems, programs, and operations.

Performance Measures:

 

	Base decisions on use of information technology on business needs and an NWS-wide systems architecture.
	Base decisions concerning telecommunications on business needs and the NWS telecommunications architecture and strategic plan.
	Equip NWS facilities with computer resources necessary to achieve planned and evolving operational and strategic results.

Continuing a 130-Year Legacy — Improved and Innovative 
Service to America

We have a 130-year legacy of service to America. The five goals in this strategic plan build on the past and lay out a plan and agenda to lead us into the new millennium. The initiatives and activities outlined will enlarge the number, type, time period, and quality of our services to the Nation. We will provide our customers and partners with improved services and a seamless product suite of quality and relevant warnings and forecasts covering time scales from minutes to years. Our actions will show we are a world-class team of professionals. Our customers' reactions will demonstrate we have provided products they can trust when they need them most. .

We strive to be America's no surprise weather service and be recognized as one of America's most respected Government agencies. This strategic plan will help us meet these aspirations and elevate a good organization to new levels of greatness. .

NWS Corporate Board Concurrence,

We the Corporate Board of the NWS,pledge that we are committed to working with the men and women of our agency, and with our customers, partners, and stakeholders, to turn this strategic plan into reality.
 

Assistant Administrator	Deputy Assistant Administrator
President, NWS Employees Organization	Chief Financial Officer
Director, Alaska Region	Director, Central Region
Director, Eastern Region	Director, Southern Region
Director, Western Region	Director, Pacific Region
Director, Office of Meteorology	Director, Office of Hydrology
Director, National Centers for  Environmental Prediction	Director, Office of Systems  Development
Director, Office of Systems Operations	Director, AWIPS Program Office

^Footnotes

²This program would provide a check list of actions to ensure communities are well prepared to respond to hazardous weather.

³WMO Region IV includes North America, Central America, and the Caribbean.

⁴The NOAA SFA program is designed to elicit employee perceptions about NOAA in order to improve the quality of work life for all present and future NOAA employees