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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KSGX 230332
 AFDSGX
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
 930 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2008
 
 .SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF 
 COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND 
 MORNINGS...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND GRADUALLY 
 WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A LITTLE COOLER TOWARD 
 THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. 
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... 
 ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
 
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR 
 AREAS OF STRATUS NEAR THE COAST. THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING HAD A WEAK 
 INVERSION BASED NEAR 1900 FT WITH DRY WLY WINDS ALOFT. WEAK OFFSHORE 
 GRADIENTS FROM THE N AND ONSHORE TO THE E WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL.
 
 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SW THROUGH WED AND 
 THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH 
 THE SHORT TERM WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S IN MOST OF THE INLAND 
 EMPIRE AND WARMER SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS BY THU. SUBSIDENCE WILL 
 CAUSE A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED TO 
 THE COASTAL AREAS AND WRN SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHTS 
 AND MORNINGS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
 RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU...BUT NO 
 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 
 
 &&
 
 .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF OVER THE GFS 
 IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL 
 MOVE PAST FAR TO THE N FOR A LITTLE COOLING FRI BUT MORE COOLING 
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER. A RIDGE OF 
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A LITTLE 
 WARMING AND SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. LIMITED MID LEVEL 
 MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 230300Z...MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHRINKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
 DAYS. PATCHY CIGS ALONG THE COAST AT 03Z SHOULD FILL IN AFTER 06Z 
 AND SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND WITH BASES NEAR 1.5K FT AND TOPS BELOW 
 FL020. CIGS EXPECTED TO STOP SHORT OF KONT...ALTHOUGH VIS 
 RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 SM ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z 
 TUE. SOME INLAND AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KRNM...MAY EXPERIENCE LIFR VIS 
 OR CIGS AGAIN TUE MORNING. STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIN 
 AND CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY 17Z...HOWEVER MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL 
 LINGER UNTIL 20Z IN SOME VALLEYS.  
 
 ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER AND FAR INLAND...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND VIS 
 UNRESTRICTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
 
 &&
 
 .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
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 PUBLIC...DA
 AVIATION...JAD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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