China’s 1999/2000 rice crop is estimated at a record 141.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 1 percent from last year’s revised crop of 139.1 million. Total rice area is estimated up slightly from last year at 31.3 million hectares, with increased single and late rice area offsetting a slight drop in early rice area. The weather was generally favorable for this season’s early rice crop, and production was reportedly higher than last year due to higher yield. Excessive rainfall and local flooding in the lower Yangtze River Valley during the summer delayed the transplanting and development of single and late rice, but any crop losses were minor compared to 1998/99, when China experienced the worst flooding in decades. Warm and mostly dry weather in October favored the maturing late-rice crop, and yield is expected to be at or above record level.

Argentina’s 1999/2000 wheat production is estimated at 14.0 million tons, up 1.3 million from last month and 22 percent above last season. Harvested area is estimated at 5.8 million hectares, up 6 percent from last month and 13 percent above last season. Area is revised higher based on a higher planted area estimate recently reported by the Argentine Agricultural Secretariat. The wheat crop is in generally good condition aided by recent rains which fell throughout the wheat-growing region, improving moisture levels and prospects for the developing wheat. In Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces, crop stage varies from jointing to flowering. Farther north, the crop is in more advanced flowering to grain-filling stages. Harvest of early-planted wheat is underway in the northernmost provinces.

Kazakstan’s wheat production during 1999/2000 is estimated at 11.0 million tons, up 3.5 million from last month and up 6.3 million from last year. Preliminary harvest-progress reports indicate that yield jumped over 100 percent from last year. The crop benefitted from nearly ideal weather, both throughout the growing season and during the harvest campaign, and from support to farms from grain-trading companies, largely in the form of credit, seed, and fuel. In addition, locust damage was less severe than earlier official reports had suggested. Also, barley production increased this month to 2.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up 127 percent from last season. Both area and yield are higher.

After a delay of several months, the Chinese Government has finally released 1998/99 production statistics for most crops. Production of total grain (rice, wheat, corn, other cereals, beans, and tubers) reached a record 512.3 million tons, up 18.1 million from 1997/98. A large decline in wheat production was more than offset by record corn production, which exceeded the previous crop by 28.7 million tons. The 1998/99 rice crop was the second-largest on record despite serious flooding in central and southern China. Oilseed production reached a record 23.1 million tons, boosted by record peanut output. Cotton production declined slightly in 1998/99 due to lower area and yield.

Crop	1997/98	1998/99	Change
Total Grain	494.2	512.3	18.1
Rice	200.7	198.7	-2.0
Wheat	123.3	109.7	-13.6
Corn	104.3	133.0	28.7
Tubers	31.9	36.0	4.1
Beans (incl. soy)	18.8	20.0	1.2
Oilseeds	21.6	23.1	1.5
Peanuts	9.7	11.9	2.2
Rapeseed	9.6	8.3	-1.3
Cotton	4.6	4.5	-0.1

Russia’s 1999/2000 wheat production is estimated at 32.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and 5.1 million from last year. Barley production is estimated at 12.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and 2.7 million from last year. Harvest was virtually complete by late October, except for corn and minor late-seeded grains and reported yield is up approximately 12 percent from last year.

Corn production in Ukraine for 1999/2000 is estimated at 0.8 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month and down 1.5 million from last year. According to official reports, less than 0.4 million of the 1.4 million hectares initially planted to corn-for-grain this year will be harvested. As a result of severe drought, a large portion of the crop was chopped for silage rather than harvested for grain.

CANADA: BUMPER WHEAT, BARLEY, AND RAPESEED CROPS DESPITE LATE PLANTING AND HARVEST

Canada’s 1999/2000 wheat production is estimated at 26.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 7 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 2.52 tons per hectare, surpassing the previous record in 1996/97 of 2.43 tons. Area is estimated to remain at 10.3 million hectares, the same as last month, but down 5 percent from last year. Canada’s barley production is estimated at 13.0 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from both last month and last year. Area is unchanged from last month at 4.1 million hectares, down 4 percent from last year. Canada’s rapeseed production is estimated at a record 8.6 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month and up 13 percent from last year. Crop yield is forecast at a record 1.54 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last month. Area is forecast to remain at 5.6 million hectares, the same as last month and up 3 percent from last year.

Favorable summer weather aided crop development and offset the delay caused by late planting. Area projections declined in June because excessive moisture caused substantial planting delays: southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba were the areas that had the most delays. Weather was cool and wet throughout the early summer, then changed to nearly ideal warmth and dryness in August. Crops in many areas of the prairies were two to four weeks behind normal development, causing concern that an early freeze would damage overall production. However, harvesting continued very late this season due to the late planting, and producers in the prairies benefitted from the fact that hard freezes held off until the average first date in mid September or thereafter. Freezing temperatures in areas in Saskatchewan and Manitoba that suffered the greatest planting delays did not occur until nearly October.

Australia’s 1999/2000 wheat output is estimated at 23.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and up 2.0 million or 10 percent from last year. There is no change in area this month; however, area is up 4 percent from last year. This year’s wheat area of 12.0 million hectares is the largest area since 1984/85 when 12.1 million hectares were planted. The weather over much of the grain growing regions has produced adequate winter rainfall amounts, with the exception of South Australia where dry areas continue to be a problem. State yields are expected to be near the four year average, except for above average yields in New South Wales. Yields in South Australia are not projected to reach record levels this season as a result of delayed planting last autumn and drier conditions. New South Wales began harvesting last week along the northern wheat belt. Harvest in Victoria and South Australia will begin at the end of November. The western Australia, Geraldton zone harvest began the last week of October and will continue south into December.

Estimated corn production in Indonesia for 1999/2000 rose 0.4 million tons this month to 6.2 million tons, but is still down 5 percent from last year. Crop travel by the U.S. agricultural counselor in Jakarta found that producers planted more area to corn than was originally estimated in response to resurgent demand from the poultry feed sector. There is also some replacement of corn for soybeans in East Java. Yield is up slightly in part due to the increased use of hybrid corn. Weather has been favorable in the major corn growing sectors of Java and Sumatra.

The 1999/2000 Romanian corn harvest of 3.0 million hectares is now expected to reach 10.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month, and 1.5 million from last year. As of the end of October, the crop was nearly 80 percent harvested. This year’s corn harvest will be the third largest in the last 10 years, coming in below the 1997 crop of 12.7 million tons. Favorable weather throughout most of the growing season and a warm, dry September boosted yield to 3.33 tons per hectare, up from 2.83 tons last season.

Argentina’s 1999/2000 soybean production is estimated at 18.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month but 7 percent below last season. Harvested area is estimated at 7.7 million hectares, up 3 percent from last month and last season. Area is revised higher based on the recent improvement in price outlook for soybeans. Weather conditions for sowing have also improved as recent rains boosted soil moisture. The Argentine Agricultural Secretariat reports planting intentions at 2.4 percent above last season’s planted area. Expansion is expected to come from a larger area of second-crop soybeans to be sown after wheat, as area currently planted to wheat is estimated 13 percent higher than last season. In addition, some area previously sown to sunflower and peanuts is expected to be shifted to soybeans this season. Production figures for the 1997/98 and 1998/99 seasons were also up this month, 2 and 5 percent respectively, with the production increases based on current crush data.

Brazil’s 1999/2000 soybean production is estimated at 31.0 million tons, up 2 percent from last month, but down about 5 percent from the 1997/98 record crop of 32.5 million tons. Harvested area is forecast upward by about 3 percent from last month to 12.9 million hectares, the same as a year ago. Recent rains have benefitted planting operations in many of the key soybean states. Soybean planting generally takes place over the period October through December. The crop was 16 percent planted by November 5, compared to 5 percent as of October 29 and 18 percent a year ago. Plantings are back on track in the key states of Parana (22%), Mato Grosso (25%), Mato Grosso do Sul (10%), Rio Grande do Sul (10%). Plantings are somewhat behind schedule in the states of Goias (14% vs. 22% in 1998) and Sao Paulo (4% vs. 8% in 1998), but no adverse impact is anticipated given the broad planting window.

A reduction in input use will limit yield in most states. Limestone consumption is reportedly down 8 to 10 percent below last year, while the use of chemicals may be down 15 percent. Devaluation of the real has raised the cost of imported inputs, and high debt levels is making financing difficult for many producers.

Pakistan’s cotton production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 7.8 million bales, up 0.3 million from last month and up 1.5 million from last year’s weather and insect reduced crop. The increase is based largely on good growing weather and the absence of major pest problems. Through October, cotton arrivals at gins were reported to be over 270,000 MT--or about double last year’s pace. The faster pace is due to the early maturation of the crop, coupled with farmers’ willingness to sell as soon as the crop is harvested, rather than risk further price declines. Farmers expect a marginal third picking (due to decreased nitrogen usage) and now predict the harvest will be completed by mid-December. Weather through the end of October generally has been favorable.

Cotton production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 12.7 million bales (including 600,000 bales loose cotton) on prospects of better yields in the northern states (Punjab/Haryana and Rajasthan) and Gujarat due to favorable weather since September. The irrigated cotton areas of the northern states had sufficient canal water access and excellent growing conditions. In the northern zone the season’s cloudless skies and scant rainfall resulted in negligible insect problems. Bollworm attacks were also down this season, in contrast to the heavy losses suffered in the past two seasons. Despite an area decline of more than 15 percent in the region, production is estimated to increase by more than 20 percent this year. The central states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh received good rains during September through early October which benefitted the water-stressed cotton crop, particularly in Gujarat which was reeling under drought conditions due to low rains in July/August. The late rains and improved soil moisture will provide additional pickings and increase yields. In the central and southern zones, the crop is doing well and there are no reports of any significant pest damage.

Cotton production is estimated at 5.2 million bales, up 0.4 million from last month and up 0.6 million from last year’s weather-reduced crop. According to official reports, seed-cotton deliveries had reached 3.5 million tons as of late October, up roughly 20 percent from the same time last year and matching the 1997/98 pace when 5.2 million bales were produced. Typically, harvest is more than 90 percent complete by late October. However, this season’s harvest appears to have progressed at a more rapid pace because of the ideal weather during the harvest season suggesting that less cotton remains to be harvested than in previous years.