November 2001

WORLD AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION BRIEFS

Kazakstan: Farmers Complete Grain Harvest

Wheat production for 2001/02 is estimated at 13.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 18 percent from last month and up 3.9 million or 43 percent from last year. Despite rain during the final stages of the campaign, harvest weather was generally good and yields were high following excellent weather throughout the growing season. Barley production is estimated at 2.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 15 percent from last month and up 0.6 million or 37 percent from last year.

Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Increases

The 2001/02 wheat crop is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 1.8 million or 7 percent from last year. Estimated area is 12.0 million hectares, up 0.8 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 1.0 million or 8 percent from last year. The wheat area forecast was revised based on new Australia Bureau of Statistics data that indicate last year’s planted area was greater than previously estimated. Area and production for 2000/01 are also revised upward this month, by 8 percent to 13.0 million hectares and by 12 percent to 23.8 million tons, respectively. The current season (2001/02) area and production are revised upward to reflect crop conditions relative to last year’s crop. The Australia winter growing season began with dryness in the western and northeastern wheat areas. Conditions improved in Western Australia and New South Wales, while Queensland endured extreme dryness for most of the winter season. Timely and abundant rainfall in South Australia and Victoria will result in above average yields.

Russia: Harvest Totals Continue to Climb

Wheat production for 2001/02 is estimated at 44.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 2 percent from last month and up 10.1 million or 29 percent from last year. Barley production is estimated at 19.5 million tons, up 2.0 million or 11 percent from last month and up 5.4 million or 38 percent from last year. Rye production is estimated at 6.5 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up 1.1 million or 19 percent from last year. Oat production is estimated at 7.0 million tons, unchanged from last month and up 1.0 million or 17 percent from last year. Corn production is estimated at 0.8 million tons, unchanged from last month and down 0.8 million or 48 percent from last year. According to harvest results released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Russian farms harvested over 90 million tons of grain this year (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying), and final net output is forecast at roughly 83.5 million tons, versus 65.5 million last year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the 2001/02 Russian grain harvest is virtually complete, with total grain yield up 25 percent from last year.

Argentina: Wheat Production Declines Due to Heavy Rains

Argentina’s wheat production for 2001/02 is estimated at 17.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 3 percent from last month, but up 3 percent from last season’s crop of 16.5 million. Argentine wheat area is estimated at 6.7 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month, but up 5 percent from last season. Heavy rains in central Argentina have damaged wheat. More than 12 inches (300 mm) of rain has fallen on central Argentina’s main growing area since September 15 resulting in localized flooding and saturated soils. Approximately 15 percent of the nation’s wheat area is in the area that was most affected by the rains. This area is northwestern Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe, southern Cordoba, and northeastern La Pampa provinces. The wheat harvest has begun in northern Argentina; 2 percent has been collected as of early November. The heavy rains in central Argentina fell on wheat in the heading and flowering stages. The higher-than-normal precipitation has raised concerns for increased outbreaks of fungal diseases. Wheat yields are forecast at 2.54 tons per hectare, slightly higher than average.

India: Sorghum Production Forecast Falls

The 2001/02 sorghum output is forecast at 7.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 22 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 6 percent from last year. Estimated area is 9.7 million hectares, down 0.6 million or 6 percent from last month and down 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. Kharif sorghum typically provides the bulk of India’s sorghum crop with the rabi season producing a smaller share. This season kharif sorghum is estimated lower, production for June through September was 16 percent lower than for the same period last year.

Romania: Corn Production Boosted

Romanian corn production for 2001/02 is estimated at 8.4 million tons, up 1.4 million or 20 percent from last month and up 87 percent from 2000/01, a year that saw a record low production of 4.5 million tons. The increased 2001/02 corn harvest however, still remains below the five-year average of 9.1 million tons. Area is estimated to have remained steady from last month but is up 0.3 million hectares from last season to 3.0 million hectares. The new production estimate can be attributed to several factors. Widespread rains, long absent in much of the primary growing areas of Romania, finally occurred in September, aiding corn in the grain fill stage. Additionally, secondary grain regions in northwestern Romania that border Hungary and Serbia as well as the northeastern region known as Moldavia, received consistent precipitation throughout the growing season. This aided national yields, countering the devastating drought that ravaged the grain-basket region located in the south and east.

Ukraine: Corn Harvest Better Than Expected

Corn production for 2001/02 is estimated at 3.2 million tons, up 1.2 million or 60 percent from last month but down 0.6 million or 17 percent from last year. Ukraine farmers are gathering a respectable corn crop this year despite excessive heat and persistent dryness that prevailed during July and August. Ukrainian wheat production is estimated at 21.0 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up 10.8 million or 106 percent from last year. Barley production is estimated at 10.0 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up 3.1 million or 46 percent from last year.

Australia: Barley Production Forecast Rises

The 2001/02 barley crop is forecast at 7.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 17 percent from last month, but down 0.2 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 3.7 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 16 percent from last month, and unchanged from last year. The barley area forecast is revised based on new Australia Bureau of Statistics data that indicate last year’s planted area was greater than previously estimated. Area and production for 2000/01 are also revised upward this month, by 24 percent to 3.7 million hectares and by 29 percent to 7.2 million tons, respectively. The current season area and production are revised upward to reflect crop conditions relative to last year’s crop. South Australia, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of Australia's total barley production, has seen very favorable conditions. The Australia winter growing season began drier than normal in the western and northeastern grain areas. Seasonal conditions improved in Western Australia and New South Wales. Abundant rainfall in the later portion of the season in South Australia and Victoria will result in above average yields.

Italy: Corn Production Forecast Falls due to Adverse Weather

Production for 2001/02 is estimated at 10.0 million tons, down 1.0 million tons, or 9 percent from last month, and down slightly from 10.1 million tons last year. Very dry conditions in the last three weeks of August adversely affected the crop in non-irrigated areas, causing 10-15 percent lower yields than last year. Corn harvested area is down more than 7 percent from the previous forecast to 1.1 million hectares, but up nearly 5 percent from last year. The reduction in area from the previous estimate is attributed to planting delays due to excess rain in the spring. Italy produces on average between 9 and 10 million tons of corn annually, making it Western Europe’s second largest producer of corn after France. The major corn growing region of Italy is the Po River Valley, which is irrigated to a large extent.

India: Rice Forecast Increased

The 2001/02 rice crop is forecast at 89.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1 percent from last month and up 2.7 million or 3 percent from last year. The area forecast is 44.7 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 4 percent from last month, but down 0.1 million from last year. Output in the major surplus-producing states of Punjab and Haryana is forecast down slightly from last year due to a decline in planted area. Prospects in the other major rice growing states are positive. The current total forecast is made up of 76.4 million for the current kharif season and 12.6 million tons for the upcoming rabi season. The rabi crop is mostly irrigated and is grown in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Argentina: Soybean Production to Increase as Area Shifts from Corn and Sunflowerseed

Argentine soybean area in 2001/02 is forecast at a record 11.0 million hectares, up 0.3 million hectares from last month and up 7 percent from last year’s area of 10.3 million hectares. Soybean production is forecast at 28.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 5 percent from last season’s revised estimate of 26.7 million tons. Soybean area is expected to increase as farmers shift away from corn and sunflowerseed. Heavy rains in central Argentina have reduced planting intentions for corn and sunflowerseed by 350,000 hectares. More than 12 inches (300 mm) of rain has fallen on central Argentina’s main growing area since September 15, resulting in localized flooding and saturated soils. These soils will need time to dry before planting can occur. In these conditions, soybeans have two advantages over corn and sunflowerseed: planting occurs later in the season than corn and sunflower planting, and no-till planting can occur on wetter soils. Soybean planting is 9 percent complete as of early November. Single-crop soybean planting begins in early November and is typically 50 percent complete by late November. Even before the delays caused by the heavy rains, economic conditions favored the planting of soybeans over corn. Soybeans are preferred due to higher returns and lower input costs. Input costs are financed and the high cost and limited availability of credit are of increasing concern. Rising concerns about a possible default on the national debt by the Argentine government have made credit even tighter in recent weeks.

Argentina: Sunflower Production to Decrease due to Heavy Rains

Argentine sunflower area in 2001/02 is forecast at 2.0 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares from last month but up 6 percent from last season. Argentina’s sunflower production is forecast at 3.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons or 8 percent from last month, but up 11 percent from last season’s estimate of 3.1 million tons. Heavy rains in central Argentina delayed sunflower planting in key growing areas. More than 12 inches (300 mm) of rain has fallen on central Argentina’s main growing area since September 15, resulting in localized flooding and saturated soils. Sunflower planting is 27 percent complete as of early November, the slowest rate in five years. Planting began in mid-September and is typically 50 percent complete by the end of October. By early December, planting is finished. Approximately 26 percent (0.57 million hectares) of national sunflower planted area is in the area that was most affected by the rains. This area is northwestern Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe, southern Cordoba, and northeastern La Pampa provinces. Sunflower area is expected to decrease by 100,000 hectares as farmers shift away from sunflower to soybean.

China: Cotton Production Forecast up on Near-Record Yield

China’s 2001/02 cotton production is estimated at 23.5 million bales (5.12 million tons), up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month due to higher estimated yield. Favorably dry harvest weather raised yield prospects to 1066 kilograms per hectare, second only to last year’s record yield. Estimated cotton area for 2001/02 is 4.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 20 percent from last year in response to strong prices and higher profits compared to grains or oilseeds. Average to above-average cotton yields are expected in all areas of the country despite less-than-ideal summer weather, including an extended drought in eastern China and uncharacteristically cool and wet weather in northern Xinjiang. Although the drought reportedly hindered cotton planting/development and reduced the availability of water for irrigation, widespread rainfall in July and August provided adequate moisture at the most critical time. Mostly dry and warmer-than-normal weather in September and October created nearly ideal conditions for cotton maturing and harvesting across eastern China. According to local officials, cotton quality is better than last year, harvest progress is ahead of schedule, and procurement is going well.

India: Cotton Production Forecast Decreases

The 2001/02 cotton crop is estimated at 12.2 million bales, down 0.3 million or 2 percent from last month, but up 1.3 million or 12 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 8.74 million hectares, up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last month and up 0.6 million or 8 percent from last year. Lower production is anticipated in the northern cotton producing states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. The reductions are a result of pest damage brought on by a combination of factors including early planting, high humidity, and cloud cover. Early sown cotton from the north and central areas have begun arriving in the market at a slower pace due to boll weevil and white fly problems in the north, and rain delays in the central states. Overall, the 2001 monsoon season brought timely and well-distributed rain to most cotton growing regions. The crop in central producing states of Maharastra and Madhya Pradesh is reported as excellent due to increased rainfall in late August and early September. The southern producing state of Andrah Pradesh had localized flooding due to heavy rains in mid-October, but crop damage was negligible. It is likely that this rain further improved opportunities for additional late pickings. The other southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have received sufficient rains and the crop condition is good.

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