000
FXUS65 KLKN 180849
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
145 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR
THE UTAH BORDER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR ERN NV TODAY IN THE WAKE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE
THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NV LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NV FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NWD AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50.  CEC

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH NV FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS NRN NV AS A 75 KT JET PUSHES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS MOST OF THE COLD AIR MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POP ~25 TO 30 PCT ALONG AND NORTH OF I80
WITH POP NEAR 15 PCT ALONG HIGHWAY 50 ACROSS CNTRL NV. SOME COOLER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH GFS SHOWING 700MB TEMPS LOWERING TO
1C FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
REGARDING POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW...ALTHOUGH HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATION RUNS ARE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS AND SHOW COLD AIR DIGGING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NRN NV AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW MOST OF THIS COLDER AIR REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER
ON MONDAY. WITH ECMWF REMAINING THE MOST CONSISTENT SO FAR...WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THEREFORE...KEPT
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW POP IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOWING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. TT
&&

.AVIATION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL NV. THERE IS A 15 PCT CHC OF
TSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KELY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT MOST
OF THE TSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ELY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR ERN NV THIS
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 5%. A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN NV LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ZONES 451
AND 452 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ZONE
454 AND THE NRN HALF OF 455. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE WET. CEC
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$