000
FXUS65 KLKN 190852
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
155 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ERN NV WITH MORE CLOUDINESS
PUSHING INTO NRN CALIF AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OFF
THE NRN CALIF COASTLINE.  CURRENT MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS 90 KT JET
MAX AT 250MB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHES INTO NV LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MINIMAL INITIALLY AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO NE AND EAST CNTRL NV. ONCE THE JET MAX PUSHES INTO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GFS SHOWS
SOME DECENT OMEGA LIFT OVER 10 UB/S EAST OF THE TROUGH BASE...IN THE
AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NRN NV. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICK WITH
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING LARGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. LOCALIZED QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE THIRD AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 IN ELKO AND ERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES IN THE
REGION OF BEST DYNAMIC FORCING. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR ELY...TONOPAH AND EUREKA. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GFS AND NAM SHOWING 700MB TEMPS LOWERING TO 1C.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGS COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO IDAHO AND
UTAH SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. SNOW LEVEL ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY LOWER TO 8500 FEET ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...SO SOME SNOW COVERED PEAKS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAINS OF NE NV BY SATURDAY MORNING. TT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVE EXITING NERN NV SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CORNER. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL BRUSH NRN NV LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NRN MTNS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  CEC
&&

.AVIATION....LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL PUSH INTO
NRN NV LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NRN NV. CIGS/VSBYS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR BUT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS.  CEC
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$