000
FXUS65 KLKN 150944
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
244 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY...
BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WEATHER. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. THIS MORNING AND NARY A CLOUD
IN THE SKY OVER THE LKN CWFA. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MILD AFTER A
VERY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. A COUPLE VERY WARM
DAYS AHEAD WITH HIGHS NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WIND REGIME. HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE AT MAXIMUM AMPLIFICATION
ATTM...CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH. RIDGE DE-AMPLIFICATION WILL BEGIN LATE TODAY AND BY TUESDAY
MORNING AXIS OF RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EAST TO POSITION NEAR THE 4-
CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE UP
AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INITIATE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.5 INCHES. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING...
WHICH WILL BE DRY VARIETY. LW

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INJECTED INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
WHICH WILL HELP FUEL SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY. THE
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AS WELL AS
WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE WET OR DRY.
GIVEN THE PATTERN OF STORM BEING MAINLY WET THIS YEAR...WILL NOT
RULE OUT WET STORMS...EVEN THOUGH PWS ARE PROGGED TO ONLY BE
AROUND .6 INCHES. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY ALLOWING TEMPS
THURSDAY TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THEN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

AFTER THIS LOW MOVE OUT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING IN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
AFFECTING THE CWA SATURDAY. EVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN. GFS IS SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY
SATURDAY WITH LIS OF -4.5 OVER WHITE PINE AND SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
CAPE IS ALSO GOOD FOR THIS REGION WITH UP TO 800 J/KG IN WHITE
PINE COUNTY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS IS AROUND 565 OVER WHITE PINE
WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME SNOW TO FALL ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAVE SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. BY MONDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL
EJECT. HOWEVER...GFS IS INDICATING THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE IN DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$