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000 FXUS65 KLKN 161301 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 300 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE SILVER STATE BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY DRY...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THINGS TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN. GFS SHOWING PWS OF ONLY AROUND .5 TO .6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH LIS AROUND -.5 TO -1 EXCEPT CLOSER TO -2 IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF NVZ 13. WOULD NOT BE VERY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR A JET MAX THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER ELKO COUNTY. GFS ESTIMATING THE CORE TO BE AROUND 60KTS. THIS COULD VERY WELL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO...850 MB WIND STREAMLINES SHOWING GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND DRY FUEL CONDITIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERN NV THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF AND MOST OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND BRING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NRN NV LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA AND SRN NV BY SATURDAY AND LINGER IT THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY NRN NV FRIDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY THEN GO DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS STORM TRACK REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. CEC && .AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CA COAST TODAY WILL DRAW UP SOME MOISTURE INTO CNTRL AND ERN NV TODAY FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTN AND EVE...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. CEC && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS THE SILVER STATE. THE DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN 452...454...AND 455 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...THE EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY WET STORMS FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS COULD BE A SEASON ENDING EVENT AS MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF TROUGHS FOR THE WEEK AFTER THIS LOW EJECTS... WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH 9 PM WEDNESDAY. $$