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000 FXUS65 KLKN 200919 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 220 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS INTO IDAHO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHEASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR NEWD INTO IDAHO TODAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY PUSHED NORTH INTO IDAHO. THIS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FASTER NEWD MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS WHICH SHOWS REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING OUT OF NERN NV BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE NAM KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DRY WLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. CEC .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS RUN FROM 00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPPER S/WV IN NW FLOW BRUSHING ACROSS NRN NV LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NRN BORDER AREA. IN ADDITION EXPECT SOME GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR UTAH BORDER BY LATE MONDAY. SYSTEM IS WEAK OVERALL WITH MINIMAL DYNAMICS AND SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE NE CORNER OF NV LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS 100 KT JET CORE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE REBUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH END OF PERIOD WITH GENERAL SW FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. NOT BEING AS AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING TUESDAY AS THE GFSX GUIDANCE SINCE MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LOWER HEIGHTS THAN OPERATIONAL RUN. MODEL DETAILS BREAK DOWN WITH S/WV ENERGY PASSING BY NORTH OF NV AFTER MIDWEEK BUT RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER NV. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED IN SW FLOW. TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DAYTIME FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...SO VALLEY MINIMUMS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING. KBB. && .AVIATION...PACIFIC JET STREAM BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT TIGHTLY WOUND VORT MAX OVER NE CALIF. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. CLEARING EXPECTED MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF NRN AND CENTRAL NV. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NRN NV. KBB. && .FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN ZONE 451 AND NRN ZONE 452. DRY WLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NERN MTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. CEC && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$