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000 FXUS65 KLKN 172115 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 214 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...PW`S WILL BE INCREASING TO ABOVE 0.60 INCHES AND COULD BE UPWARDS OF 0.90 INCHES ACCORDING TO GFS BUT THIS SEEMS SORT OF HIGH GIVEN MORNING EKO AND RNO SOUNDINGS. THINK THERE WILL BE A MIX OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL KEEP RED FLAG GOING. WITH MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN RECENTLY AND LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE MILDER LOWS THAN RECENTLY. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBIES. A CUTOFF LOW WILL START TO MOVE ONSHORE THU NIGHT/FRI WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. NORTHERN NV WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 80KT JET MOVING INTO NW NV SO KEPT IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ID BORDER AND GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN...BUT ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. JMG .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN NV FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NV DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-80. WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHERN NV BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. SINCE THIS TROUGH NOW APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80S IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. BEGINNING SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A DIFFERENT IDEA...SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT THROUGH OVER THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. BECAUSE OF ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS TO MUCH AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT DID RAISE THEM A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. IF GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ENDS UP RIGHT THEN OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL WILL COINCIDE PERFECTLY WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. MCGEE && .FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME AND MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO WET...BUT WILL KEEP RED FLAG GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS MUCH HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE GOOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBIES THU. AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER ZONES 451...452 AND 454 ON FRIDAY BUT A MAJORITY OF THESE SHOULD BE WET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM PDT THROUGH 9 PM TODAY FOR FIRE ZONES 452...454...AND 455. $$