000
FXUS65 KLKN 192249
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
349 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN NV WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NV AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW CURRENTLY KEEPING
A LID" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">LID ON ANY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN NV. HOWEVER...EVEN
OVER EASTERN NV WHERE CU HAVE BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...TSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED OVER NE ELKO
COUNTY. EXPECTING WEATHER TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATUS QUO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH CREEPS CLOSER TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS JET MAX BEGINS TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW SOME DECENT OMEGA LIFT OVER 10 UB/S EAST OF THE
TROUGH BASE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...IN THE AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 ACROSS NORTHERN NV. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICK WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA...SO
NOT EXPECTING LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS. LOCALIZED QPF AMOUNTS UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND ELKO COUNTY
NORTH OF I80...IN THE REGION OF BEST DYNAMIC FORCING. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN ELY...TONOPAH AND EUREKA. COOLER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH GFS AND NAM SHOWING 700MB
TEMPS LOWERING TO 1C BY 12Z SATURDAY OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY. CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S MOST PLACES. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NV ON SATURDAY...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREAS AFTER NOON. ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MCGEE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TRAILING SPOKE ON
500MB TROF ROTATES OVER THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH THIS
FEATURE...AIDED BY A 90KT JET. DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP MONDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING ON TUESDAY...RISING TO 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. REA
&&

.AVIATION....SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU NEVADA. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND
TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE SCT TO BKN AT
6000FT AGL" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">AGL AND BKN 10000 FT AGL THRU TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM WMC TO
EKO NORTH...WITH LESS COVERAGE SOUTH TOWARDS TPH AND ELY. ISOLATED
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH
WITH PRECIPITATION. REA
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
CENTRAL NV THROUGH TONIGHT. MCGEE &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$