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000 FXUS65 KLKN 142059 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 158 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2008 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS KEEPING WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON HIGHS... SINCE IT IS THE MIDDLE OF SEPT AND WE ARE GETTING LOWER SUN ANGLES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT MIXED LAYER WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER HIGHS. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PUSH OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA TUE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. JMG && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LONGER TERM STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH A LATE-SEASON PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE NO TROUBLE GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW MAY START DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AFTER THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY...A BRIEF RESPITE OCCURS THURSDAY BEFORE A CLOSED LOW MOVES ON BY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM`S ENERGY IS FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY. LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A QUIET ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVES IN MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN DURING THE SHORT-TERM...BUT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE VERY END OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER. RCM && .AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...AND VISIBILITIES HIGH. RCM && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH`S WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$