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September 1997
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-330) September 12, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on October 14, 1997.
--------------1997/98------------- CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1996/97
MMT MMT (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
WHEAT
World 596.1 -0.3 -0 +2
Production is forecast lower this month due to a reduction in the United States
which more than offset an increase in the total foreign category.
United States 68.2 -0.6 -1 +10
Production is forecast lower due to yield reductions in Minnesota and the Dakotas
which more than offset improved yield prospects in Montana and Washington.
Total Foreign 527.9 +0.3 +0 +1
Production is forecast higher primarily due to increases in in Russia, Eastern
Europe, Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa which more than offset declines in the
European Union, Syria, and Canada.
Russia 39.0 +1.0 +3 +12
Production is forecast higher resulting from favorable spring wheat harvest
weather in the Volga Valley and Urals.
Romania 7.0 +0.5 +8 +121
Production is forecast higher based on harvest results indicating improved
yields.
Mexico 3.8 +0.4 +12 +13
Production is forecast higher due to an increase in projected area and yield.
Brazil 2.8 +0.3 +12 -13
Production is forecast higher due to favorable weather in Parana which improved
yield prospects.
South Africa 2.7 +0.2 +8 NC
Production is forecast higher due to favorable weather which is projected to
encourage increased planting.
Yugoslavia 4.7 +0.2 +4 +47
Production is forecast higher based on harvest results indicating increased
yield.
Hungary 5.2 +0.2 +4 +33
Production is forecast higher based on harvest results indicating improved yield.
European Union 97.0 -1.5 -2 -2
Production is forecast lower based on early harvest reports indicating lower-
than-expected yields in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Portugal which more
than offset an increase in Germany.
Syria 3.2 -0.6 -16 -25
Production is forecast lower due to dry conditions which sharply lowered yield.
Canada 23.0 -0.5 -2 -23
Production is forecast lower due to yield reductions caused by drought in areas
of the Prairie Provinces during July and August.
COARSE GRAINS
World 881.7 +6.2 +1 -2
Production is forecast higher this month due to increases in the United States
and the total foreign category.
United States 263.2 +0.4 +0 -2
Production is forecast higher due to a slight increase in yield prospects for
sorghum.
Total Foreign 618.5 +5.8 +1 -3
Production is forecast higher as increases in Russia, the European Union, and
Eastern Europe more than offset a decline in Thailand.
Russia 36.9 +2.5 +7 +16
Production is forecast higher due to favorable spring grain harvest prospects
which improved yield potential in the Central Black Earth region, the Volga
Valley, and Urals.
European Union 106.9 +1.9 +2 +3
Production is forecast higher due to increases in German barley and rye output
as well as French barley and corn.
Romania 12.4 +1.4 +13 +12
Production is forecast higher due to increases in barley area and yield as well
as corn and oat yields prospects.
Yugoslavia 9.3 +0.4 +4 +3
Production is forecast higher due to favorable weather which improved corn yield.
Thailand 3.4 -0.5 -13 -17
Production is forecast lower due to drought which has reduced corn yield.
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)
World 378.7 -0.6 -0 -0
Production is forecast lower this month primarily due to a reduction in the total
foreign category.
United States 5.9 -0.0 -0 +6
Production is forecast down less than 1 percent.
Total Foreign 372.8 -0.6 -0 -0
Production is forecast lower this month primarily due to reductions in output for
the Philippines and Indonesia.
Philippines 7.3 -0.2 -3 NC
Production is forecast lower due to dry conditions which reduced yield.
Indonesia 33.3 -0.2 -1 +1
Production is forecast lower due to dry conditions which reduced yield.
OILSEEDS
World 275.5 +0.5 +0 +7
Production is forecast higher this month due to increases in the United States
and the total foreign category.
United States 84.8 +0.2 +0 +13
Production is forecast higher due to an increase in cottonseed output which
more than offset a drop in peanuts.
Total Foreign 190.7 +0.3 +0 +4
Production is forecast higher as increases in Argentina, India, Pakistan, and
Romania more than offset declines in China and Canada.
Argentina 21.3 +1.0 +5 +22
Production is forecast higher based on increased area for sunflowers and
soybeans.
Romania 1.2 +0.1 +9 -8
Production is estimated higher since recent rains have benefitted the
sunflower crop, and reports of reduced plant pests.
India 25.6 +0.1 +0 -1
Production is estimated higher based on an upward revision in cotton yield
estimates due to favorable monsoon rains.
Pakistan 4.0 +0.1 +4 +9
Production is forecast higher due to an increase in cottonseed yield.
China 39.0 -0.8 -2 -6
Production is estimated lower resulting from drought damage to peanut yields.
Canada 8.9 -0.2 -2 +22
Production is estimated lower due to drought conditions which reduced rapeseed
yield.
PALM OIL
World 17.5 +0.1 +1 +2
Production is estimated higher for 1997/98 due to an increase in Indonesia.
Indonesia 5.5 +0.1 +2 +8
Production is estimated higher based on a larger-than-expected number of
bearing trees and a revision of output estimates back to 1995/96 by the
Central Bureau of Statistics.
COTTON
--------------1997/98------------- CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1996/97
MBALES MBALES (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
World Total 88.8 +1.5 +2 +0
Production is forecast higher this month due to increases in the United States
and the total foreign category.
United States 18.4 +0.6 +4 -3
Production is forecast higher due to recent rainfall in Texas and improved
crop conditions in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Total Foreign 70.4 +0.8 +1 +1
Production is forecast up due to increased output in China, India, and
Pakistan which more than offset reductions in Greece and other minor
producers.
China 17.5 +0.5 +3 -9
Production is estimated higher due to improved yields in western China and
reduced crop stress on the North China Plain.
India 12.8 +0.3 +2 -5
Production is estimated higher due to a favorable monsoon which improved
yield.
Pakistan 8.0 +0.3 +4 +10
Production is estimated higher due to a better-than-expected yield resulting
from a reduced incidence of insects.
Greece 1.6 -0.1 -9 +16
Production is estimated lower as cool and wet weather reduced yield potential.
WHEAT : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY |1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 |Aug. 12 Sep. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 537.335 582.439 596.394 596.108
Area MIL. HA 219.352 230.544 228.309 228.194
Yield MT/HA 2.450 2.526 2.612 2.612
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 59.400 62.099 68.870 68.234
Area MIL. HA 24.664 25.435 25.696 25.696
Yield MT/HA 2.408 2.441 2.680 2.655
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 477.935 520.340 527.524 527.874
Area MIL. HA 194.688 205.109 202.613 202.498
Yield MT/HA 2.455 2.537 2.604 2.607
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 8.600 16.100 12.700 12.700
Area MIL. HA 4.500 7.000 5.800 5.800
Yield MT/HA 1.911 2.300 2.190 2.190
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 16.504 23.586 16.000 16.000
Area MIL. HA 9.721 11.327 10.800 10.800
Yield MT/HA 1.698 2.082 1.481 1.481
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 25.037 29.801 23.500 23.000
Area MIL. HA 11.141 12.262 11.400 11.400
Yield MT/HA 2.247 2.430 2.061 2.018
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 86.161 99.000 98.550 97.050
Area MIL. HA 16.161 16.802 17.255 17.126
Yield MT/HA 5.331 5.892 5.711 5.667
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 59.320 62.944 74.720 75.720
Area MIL. HA 45.358 47.790 47.605 47.605
Yield MT/HA 1.308 1.317 1.570 1.591
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 34.970 26.300 33.700 34.750
Area MIL. HA 9.710 8.689 9.810 9.855
Yield MT/HA 3.601 3.027 3.435 3.526
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 102.215 110.300 121.000 121.000
Area MIL. HA 28.860 29.558 30.000 30.000
Yield MT/HA 3.542 3.732 4.033 4.033
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 65.470 62.620 67.000 67.000
Area MIL. HA 25.600 25.100 25.400 25.400
Yield MT/HA 2.557 2.495 2.638 2.638
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 17.002 16.907 17.000 17.000
Area MIL. HA 8.170 8.376 8.100 8.100
Yield MT/HA 2.081 2.019 2.099 2.099
TURKEY
Production MIL. MT 15.500 16.000 16.000 16.000
Area MIL. HA 8.550 8.450 8.500 8.500
Yield MT/HA 1.813 1.893 1.882 1.882
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 3.460 3.375 3.400 3.800
Area MIL. HA 0.870 0.809 0.850 0.919
Yield MT/HA 3.977 4.172 4.000 4.135
OTHER W. EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.960 0.995 1.000 1.000
Area MIL. HA 0.168 0.168 0.163 0.163
Yield MT/HA 5.714 5.923 6.135 6.135
==================================================================
September 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
CORN : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY |1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 |Aug. 12 Sep. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 515.944 590.953 572.090 573.681
Area MIL. HA 134.371 141.372 141.517 141.517
Yield MT/HA 3.840 4.180 4.043 4.054
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 187.305 236.064 235.618 235.409
Area MIL. HA 26.303 29.602 29.967 29.967
Yield MT/HA 7.121 7.975 7.863 7.856
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 328.639 354.889 336.472 338.272
Area MIL. HA 108.068 111.770 111.550 111.550
Yield MT/HA 3.041 3.175 3.016 3.032
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.100 14.700 13.000 13.000
Area MIL. HA 2.700 3.225 3.000 3.000
Yield MT/HA 4.111 4.558 4.333 4.333
SOUTH AFRICA
Production MIL. MT 10.200 9.000 8.500 8.500
Area MIL. HA 3.300 3.360 3.200 3.200
Yield MT/HA 3.091 2.679 2.656 2.656
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 3.700 3.900 3.700 3.200
Area MIL. HA 1.140 1.200 1.150 1.150
Yield MT/HA 3.246 3.250 3.217 2.783
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 25.371 25.715 24.825 26.225
Area MIL. HA 6.949 7.023 6.830 6.830
Yield MT/HA 3.651 3.662 3.635 3.840
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 29.224 34.625 35.625 36.125
Area MIL. HA 3.732 4.091 4.230 4.230
Yield MT/HA 7.831 8.464 8.422 8.540
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 7.010 4.824 7.335 7.735
Area MIL. HA 2.465 2.136 2.753 2.753
Yield MT/HA 2.844 2.258 2.664 2.810
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 17.780 19.500 19.500 19.500
Area MIL. HA 7.800 8.200 8.500 8.500
Yield MT/HA 2.279 2.378 2.294 2.294
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 112.000 127.460 110.000 110.000
Area MIL. HA 22.767 24.495 23.500 23.500
Yield MT/HA 4.919 5.204 4.681 4.681
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 32.480 37.000 35.000 35.000
Area MIL. HA 13.767 14.200 14.000 14.000
Yield MT/HA 2.359 2.606 2.500 2.500
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 4.324 4.250 4.200 4.200
Area MIL. HA 2.760 2.730 2.700 2.700
Yield MT/HA 1.567 1.557 1.556 1.556
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 6.000 6.600 7.000 7.000
Area MIL. HA 3.531 3.550 3.580 3.580
Yield MT/HA 1.699 1.859 1.955 1.955
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 7.271 7.200 7.500 7.500
Area MIL. HA 1.003 1.040 1.050 1.050
Yield MT/HA 7.249 6.923 7.143 7.143
==================================================================
September 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY |1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 |Aug. 12 Sep. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 124.456 131.645 147.107 147.396
Area MIL. HA 61.259 63.051 67.669 67.679
Yield MT/HA 2.032 2.088 2.174 2.178
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 59.243 64.837 74.692 74.731
Area MIL. HA 24.938 25.661 28.254 28.254
Yield MT/HA 2.376 2.527 2.644 2.645
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 65.213 66.808 72.415 72.665
Area MIL. HA 36.321 37.390 39.415 39.425
Yield MT/HA 1.795 1.787 1.837 1.843
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 12.430 11.500 13.900 14.200
Area MIL. HA 5.980 6.200 6.400 6.500
Yield MT/HA 2.079 1.855 2.172 2.185
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 23.700 26.500 28.000 28.000
Area MIL. HA 10.950 11.800 12.600 12.600
Yield MT/HA 2.164 2.246 2.222 2.222
PARAGUAY
Production MIL. MT 2.400 2.600 2.700 2.700
Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.200 1.250 1.250
Yield MT/HA 2.182 2.167 2.160 2.160
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 13.500 13.500 13.500 13.500
Area MIL. HA 8.127 7.800 8.200 8.200
Yield MT/HA 1.661 1.731 1.646 1.646
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 1.560 1.500 1.500 1.500
Area MIL. HA 1.346 1.300 1.300 1.300
Yield MT/HA 1.159 1.154 1.154 1.154
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.304 0.358 0.306 0.306
Area MIL. HA 0.179 0.213 0.189 0.189
Yield MT/HA 1.698 1.681 1.619 1.619
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 0.939 1.153 1.412 1.412
Area MIL. HA 0.291 0.335 0.418 0.418
Yield MT/HA 3.227 3.442 3.378 3.378
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 2.293 2.170 2.700 2.700
Area MIL. HA 0.824 0.860 1.050 1.050
Yield MT/HA 2.783 2.523 2.571 2.571
==================================================================
September 12, 1997 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD
COTTON : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY |1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 |Aug. 12 Sep. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. BALES 92.381 88.719 87.344 88.824
Area MIL. HA 35.933 33.811 33.857 33.883
Yield KG/HA 559.758 571.308 561.689 570.768
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. BALES 17.900 18.942 17.783 18.418
Area MIL. HA 6.478 5.208 5.427 5.438
Yield KG/HA 602.000 792.000 713.000 737.000
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. BALES 74.481 69.777 69.561 70.406
Area MIL. HA 29.455 28.603 28.430 28.445
Yield KG/HA 551.000 531.000 533.000 539.000
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. BALES 1.970 2.646 2.800 2.800
Area MIL. HA 0.301 0.384 0.420 0.420
Yield KG/HA 1425.000 1500.000 1452.000 1452.000
CENTRAL AMERICA
Production MIL. BALES 0.065 0.029 0.024 0.024
Area MIL. HA 0.019 0.011 0.010 0.010
Yield KG/HA 745.000 574.000 523.000 523.000
EGYPT
Production MIL. BALES 1.088 1.568 1.600 1.600
Area MIL. HA 0.306 0.387 0.370 0.370
Yield KG/HA 774.000 882.000 942.000 942.000
MEXICO
Production MIL. BALES 0.974 1.077 0.860 0.800
Area MIL. HA 0.318 0.246 0.200 0.200
Yield KG/HA 667.000 953.000 936.000 871.000
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. BALES 8.200 7.300 7.700 8.000
Area MIL. HA 3.048 3.200 3.200 3.200
Yield KG/HA 586.000 497.000 524.000 544.000
SUDAN
Production MIL. BALES 0.490 0.450 0.500 0.500
Area MIL. HA 0.220 0.230 0.260 0.260
Yield KG/HA 485.000 426.000 419.000 419.000
TURKEY
Production MIL. BALES 3.911 3.600 3.500 3.500
Area MIL. HA 0.757 0.750 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 1125.000 1045.000 1016.000 1016.000
FSU-12
Production MIL. BALES 8.260 6.500 7.700 7.700
Area MIL. HA 2.573 2.545 2.630 2.630
Yield KG/HA 699.000 556.000 637.000 637.000
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. BALES 1.929 1.425 1.850 1.850
Area MIL. HA 0.960 0.870 0.900 0.900
Yield KG/HA 437.000 357.000 448.000 448.000
BRAZIL
Production MIL. BALES 1.791 1.300 1.600 1.600
Area MIL. HA 1.130 0.695 0.775 0.775
Yield KG/HA 345.000 407.000 450.000 450.000
CHINA
Production MIL. BALES 21.900 19.300 17.000 17.500
Area MIL. HA 5.422 4.722 4.500 4.500
Yield KG/HA 879.000 890.000 823.000 847.000
INDIA
Production MIL. BALES 12.649 13.500 12.500 12.800
Area MIL. HA 9.063 9.166 9.000 9.000
Yield KG/HA 304.000 321.000 302.000 310.000
==================================================================
September 12, 1997 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD
RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates
1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINARY |1997/98 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 |Aug. 12 Sep. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 371.968 380.150 379.272 378.683
Area MIL. HA 148.579 148.843 148.955 148.843
Yield MT/HA 2.504 2.554 2.546 2.544
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 5.631 5.595 5.945 5.926
Area MIL. HA 1.252 1.133 1.229 1.229
Yield MT/HA 4.498 4.938 4.837 4.822
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 366.337 374.555 373.327 372.757
Area MIL. HA 147.327 147.710 147.726 147.614
Yield MT/HA 2.487 2.536 2.527 2.525
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 3.936 4.260 4.300 4.300
Area MIL. HA 2.162 2.230 2.200 2.200
Yield MT/HA 1.821 1.910 1.955 1.955
BURMA
Production MIL. MT 9.860 9.000 9.600 9.600
Area MIL. HA 5.666 5.600 5.650 5.650
Yield MT/HA 1.740 1.607 1.699 1.699
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 14.388 13.700 14.000 14.000
Area MIL. HA 9.032 9.175 9.200 9.200
Yield MT/HA 1.593 1.493 1.522 1.522
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 129.650 136.500 134.000 134.000
Area MIL. HA 30.745 31.406 30.700 30.700
Yield MT/HA 4.217 4.346 4.365 4.365
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 33.215 32.900 33.500 33.300
Area MIL. HA 11.570 11.300 11.500 11.500
Yield MT/HA 2.871 2.912 2.913 2.896
REP. OF KOREA
Production MIL. MT 4.694 5.320 4.870 4.870
Area MIL. HA 1.056 1.050 1.045 1.045
Yield MT/HA 4.445 5.067 4.660 4.660
JAPAN
Production MIL. MT 9.781 9.413 9.000 9.000
Area MIL. HA 2.118 1.977 1.960 1.960
Yield MT/HA 4.618 4.761 4.592 4.592
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 6.834 6.500 6.350 6.350
Area MIL. HA 3.880 3.500 3.550 3.550
Yield MT/HA 1.761 1.857 1.789 1.789
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 0.680 1.006 1.000 0.850
Area MIL. HA 0.149 0.166 0.160 0.160
Yield MT/HA 4.564 6.060 6.250 5.313
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 7.263 7.300 7.550 7.300
Area MIL. HA 3.924 3.900 4.025 3.900
Yield MT/HA 1.851 1.872 1.876 1.872
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 79.620 80.540 81.000 81.000
Area MIL. HA 42.300 42.700 42.800 42.800
Yield MT/HA 1.882 1.886 1.893 1.893
BANGLADESH
Production MIL. MT 17.687 18.500 18.500 18.500
Area MIL. HA 9.941 10.000 10.000 10.000
Yield MT/HA 1.779 1.850 1.850 1.850
==================================================================
September 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
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