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JUNE 1997
This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data;numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-327) June 12, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGSTOP 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1045. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on July 14, 1997.
In April 1997, below-normal precipitation prevailed in England, France, most of the Iberian peninsula, and Italy, limiting moisture for winter grain development and newly-emerging spring-planted crops. However, starting about April 19, rain began in these areas and continued until month's end, improving growing conditions for crop development. During May 1 - 10, 1997, widespread soaking rain in England, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and northern Italy benefited winter grains in or nearing the heading stage and provided generous topsoil moisture for emerging summer crops. Light showers fell in northern Spain and peninsular Italy, benefiting winter grains in the reproductive to filling stages. Dry weather in southern Spain favored winter grain maturation and early harvesting. During the week of May 11 - 17, widespread light-to- moderate rain continued in England, France, the Benelux countries, Germany, northern Spain, and northern Italy. From May 18 - 24, widespread rain continued to spread from England and France, eastward though Germany, alleviating previous dryness and benefiting winter grains and spring-sown crops. Little or no rain fell in northern Italy's Po Valley, where rain was needed for winter grains in the filling stage and for summer crops in the vegetative stage. During May 25 - 31, mostly dry weather prevailed over England, France, the Benelux countries, western Germany, and Italy's Po Valley. In Spain and Portugal, generous rains fell in most areas, benefiting spring grains and summer crops but slowing winter grain maturation and harvesting. Light-to-moderate rain returned to England, northern France, and Germany, during the first week of June, and benefited winter grains in the reproductive-to-filling stages, as well as summer crops in the vegetative stage. Unusual rains fell in Portugal and Spain, providing moisture for summer crop development and lowering irrigation requirements.
In April 1997, rainfall was below normal throughout eastern Australia, favoring cotton and sorghum harvests but drying topsoils for winter grain planting. April rainfall was near-to-above normal in northern winter grain areas of Western Australia. During May 1 - 10, 1997, widespread showers covered primary winter grain areas from western Victoria to southeastern Queensland. The rainfall was timely for winter grain planting and provided increased moisture in pastures and grazing lands but slowed cotton and sorghum planting in northern summer crop areas. During the week of May 11 - 17, moderate-to-heavy rain fell throughout primary agricultural areas of Queensland and New South Wales. Again, this moisture was highly beneficial for winter grain establishment and pastures although the quality of unharvested cotton may have been affected. Scattered showers in Western Australia kept topsoils moist for winter grain germination. However, dryness returned to South Australia and southernmost New South Wales where planting conditions remained poor due to long-term moisture deficits. From May 18 - 24, light-to-moderate showers swept across the winter grain growing regions, maintaining favorable conditions for germination. However, dry pockets lingered in the southeast. During May 25 - 31, light-to-moderate showers continued throughout primary winter grain areas, keeping topsoil moisture adequate for germination. Rainfall exceeding 10 millimeters was especially welcomed over much of Victoria and South Australia where seasonal moisture deficits have threatened crop prospects. During the first week of June, beneficial rain covered Western Australia's winter grain belt, conditioning topsoils for establishment. In the east, rainfall was generally light and scattered, although moderate showers fell over crop areas of South Australia Victoria nearest the coast. As of June 10, the region in greatest need of rain stretches from the northern growing districts of South Australia into southern New South Wales.
In April 1997, precipitation was near-to-above normal in Manitoba, exacerbating the flood situation in the Red River Valley and the Interlake Region. Precipitation was below normal in southern Alberta and over a broad section of southeastern Saskatchewan. April temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees C below normal across the Prairies, precluding significant early fieldwork. During May 1 - 10, 1997, scattered showers fell throughout the western and central Prairies. In Manitoba, somewhat heavier rain in the western and southern districts kept fields unfavorably wet, especially in flooded areas of the Red River Valley. During May 11 - 17, scattered, mostly light precipitation fell across the southern Prairies, causing only minor fieldwork delays. Temperatures averaged near-to-above normal in the west, helping warm topsoils for germination. Lingering cold in Manitoba hampered early crop development. Below-normal temperatures and locally-heavy rain fostered delays in Prairie spring crop planting and germination during the week of May 18 - 24. Moderate-to-heavy precipitation, stretching from southern Alberta to western Manitoba, halted fieldwork but provided the southwestern Prairies with welcomed moisture. During May 25 - 31, warmer, generally-drier weather aided Prairie spring grain and oilseed planting. Conditions were especially favorable in Manitoba where cold, wet weather so far this season has restricted fieldwork in some districts. Lingering, moderate showers in southern Alberta and neighboring areas of Saskatchewan hampered late plantings but were a boon to farmers in that traditionally drier region. During June 1 - 7, a ridge of high pressure dominated the Prairies, bringing warm, dry weather to most spring grain and oilseed areas. While promoting planting and warming topsoils for germination, a few locations are in need of moisture. Persistent showers also kept parts of northern Alberta too wet for fieldwork. As of June 10, any crops planted from this point on run a higher risk of summer heat stress or autumn freeze damage.
On June 17, nearly two weeks after Australia's first 1997/98 wheat production forecast of 19.2 million tons, the Australia Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) in its quarterly review, cut its forecast 15 percent to 16.2 million tons. (Production in 1996/97 is estimated at record 23.6 million tons.) While sown wheat area is forecast to remain historically high and unchanged from the June 3 report of 11.1 million hectares, yield is cut due to expected below-average growing conditions created by the latest El Nino event. El Nino may cause dryness Australia's eastern wheat and barley growing regions.
An early dry spell in eastern Australia caused some concern about soil moisture, but western Australia received adequate rainfall to date. In Queensland, wheat is forecast to increase 10 percent; however, after an earlier dry period, good follow-up rains are needed in June. Wheat area in New South Wales is expected to remain stable. Most of New South Wales has benefitted from May rainfall. Planting area in South Australia is expected to be marginally lower than 1996/97, while virtually the same in Victoria. Dry pockets linger in the southeastern States and a good soaking rain is needed to ensure even germination and proper establishment. In Western Australia, ABARE's June 3 report indicates that the crop has had an ideal start to the season and wheat area is off slightly from last season's level. Planting is usually completed by the end of July.
Spring seeding as of early-June is making good progress in much of western Canada, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Ottawa. In Alberta, provincial sources estimate approximately 75 percent of crops are in the ground, but in northern regions planting is lagging due to excessive precipitation. Snow and rain during late-May and early-June meant Alberta farmers made little additional progress, though the moisture was welcomed by farmers in the south. In Saskatchewan, seeding was about 99 percent complete, with all areas of the province at least 96 percent seeded. Moisture conditions are reported as generally good in the province. In Manitoba, seeding is nearing completion. At present, prospects are looking reasonably good for fields to dry out sufficiently in the flood affected regions for Manitoba allowing farmers to get their crops sown.
In Ontario, 25 percent of the winter wheat crop is estimated in good condition, 25 percent in poor condition, and the balance in between. Industry sources are predicting winter wheat output at 500,000 tons, split between 200,000 soft white wheat, 200,000 soft red wheat, and 100,000 hard red winter. Given these levels, Ontario millers may again look to the United States for soft wheat supplies to meet their requirements in 1997/98. August-March wheat imports from the United States were 86,000 tons.
Some harvesting of 1996/97 crops that wintered in the field in western Canada is occurring, but reports indicate that quality is poor, and much will simply be burned off. Perhaps 200,000 to 300,000 tons of wheat may ultimately be recovered out of an estimated 1.0 million tons that could not be combined last fall due to inclement weather. The Canadian Wheat Board created a special contract for this wheat and has called for 100 percent delivery of quantities contracted. Product may also be consumed domestically for feed.
The National Crop Estimates Committee's third official estimate of South Africa's 1996/97 summer grain production has been released, the U.S. agricultural counselor in Pretoria reports. The corn production estimate is unchanged from the previous month at 8.2 million tons and includes output on both developing and commercial farming operations and based on conditions as of May 15, 1997. Corn and other summer grain crops are currently being harvested, but the process has been interrupted by heavy rainfall in the major grain-producing areas. Based on field observations and other sources, the recent rainfall has caused damage to crops that are still on the land, particularly corn and groundnuts, and may have an adverse effect on quality. There are indications that there is a temporary shortage of corn which will be alleviated by the resumption of harvesting. The harvest may get into full swing again when both fields and crop have dried out, probably by the third and fourth week of June. Wheat planting for 1997/98 is in progress and will continue through the end of June. The recent rain resulted in soil moisture ideal for wheat production. USDA estimates the 1996/97 corn production at 8.3 million tons and 1997/98 wheat output at 2.5 million.
Unseasonably cool weather east of the Rocky Mountains slowed crop emergence and development the entire month of May. Localities as far south as Kentucky recorded freezing temperatures well beyond their normal "last freeze date." Despite the cool weather, corn planting progressed well ahead of normal throughout the Corn belt. As corn planting finished, farmers immediately switched to planting soybeans, which also progressed well ahead of the normal pace. However, below-normal temperatures hindered crop emergence and development, requiring limited replanting. Overall, corn condition as of June 1, 1997, was mostly good.
Continuous cool, wet weather hindered planting operations along the Gulf Coast and in the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Late-month rains eased a 3- week dry spell along the southern and middle Atlantic Coast. Southeastern cotton and peanut growers made good planting progress during the middle of the month. End-of-month rains improved crop conditions, but hindered planting progress.
Dry soils in the central and northern High Plains stressed the winter wheat crop for most of the month, causing conditions to decline. Favorable rains fell in the area the last half of May, alleviating drought-like conditions. Planting of spring wheat, barley, and oats was delayed until mid-month by cool weather and saturated soils in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Drier soils allowed small grain farmers to plant at a rapid pace during the latter part of May.
Unlike the East, States west of the Rocky Mountains recorded above-normal temperatures during May. In the Northwest, winter wheat condition improved with late-month rains. Spring wheat, barley, and oat growers made good planting progress during the month. Six consecutive weeks of hot weather in the Southwest provided good crop planting and development conditions, but exacerbated long-term drought.
Cocoa production in Ghana for 1996/97 is estimated at 350,000 tons, down 11 percent from an earlier forecast of 390,000 and down 13 percent from a revised 1995/96 estimate of 403,000 tons, the U. S. agricultural attache in Lagos, Nigeria reports. The previous 1995/96 production estimate for Ghana was 420,000 tons. The reductions were based on field travel observations and revised official Ghanaian data.
In crop areas west of the Urals, weather conditions in May continued mostly favorable for crop development. Above-normal precipitation fell in Russia, northern Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics, providing favorable moisture for winter grain and spring-planted crop development. Two to four times the normal amount of rain fell in the Volga Valley, a key spring grain producing region. Although the rain boosted soil moisture, it likely caused some delays in spring grain planting. In southern Ukraine, there was a period of hot, dry weather during the first 3 weeks in May which reduced topsoil moisture for emerging spring grains and summer crops. However, showers and cooler weather at month's end improved growing conditions. Since early June, soaking rain in traditional winter wheat producing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia (Central Black Soils Region, lower Volga Valley, and North Caucasus) was timely for the crop which is typically advancing through reproduction.
In crop areas east of the Volga Valley, the bulk of spring grains (spring wheat, spring barley, and oats) are typically planted in May. In Russia, weather conditions in Western Siberia favored spring grain planting while cool, wet weather in the Urals caused some planting delays. In Kazakstan, abundant pre-planting moisture in early May was followed by a drying trend that began around May 18 and continued until month's end, allowing planting to occur on schedule. Since early June, showers continued to hamper final spring grain planting efforts in the Urals while planting advanced to completion in Kazakstan. Moisture conditions were favorable for spring grain emergence and early crop development in most of Russia and Kazakstan. However, the drying trend in eastern Kazakstan was accompanied by periodic heat, which rapidly reduced topsoil moisture needed for emergence and early establishment. Tom Puterbaugh 720-2012 (June 1997)
The preliminary forecast for 1997/98 world green coffee production is 103.7 million 60-kilogram bags, up 3 percent from the 100.7 million harvested last season. Production in 1997/98 would match the previous record crop produced in 1991/92.
Brazil: The world's largest producer is projected to produce 28.0 million bags in 1997/98, up slightly from last season's 27.5 million-bag harvest. The 1996/97 crop estimate for Brazil was revised up 0.5 million bags from the December 1996 forecast (WAP 12-96). Factors influencing the 1997/98 forecast include: 1) field surveys of major coffee-producing regions during September 1996 and March-April 1997 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2) favorable weather and good growing conditions; 3) high grower prices that resulted in improved cultural practices, coupled with an increase in production inputs; 4) harvested area and bearing bushes up 3 and 5 percent, respectively, from last season; 5) production coming on-stream from a marked increase in high-density plantings; and, 6) the recovery of bushes that were severely pruned following the two frosts and drought of 1994.
The marginal increase in the 1997/98 crop estimate is tempered by the "off- year" cycle in some coffee- growing regions. There also was excessive rainfall during the September-January period that contributed to a larger number of flowerings than usual, negatively affecting fruit formation in some areas. However, the on/year-off/year cycles are not nearly as pronounced as they were in the past. This decreased variation is due to changes in cultural practices which include new coffee tree varieties, increased irrigation, and a higher plant density per hectare. The 1997/98 forecast includes 23 million bags of Arabica and 5 million of Robusta. The total number of coffee trees is forecast at 3.6 billion, up 5 percent from the 1996/97 season. The coffee production potential in Brazil is currently estimated at 35 million bags.
Colombia: Colombia's 1997/98 coffee production forecast of 11.3 million bags suggests a modest recovery from the estimated 1996/97 crop of 10.3 million bags, the smallest crop in twenty years.
The decline in 1996/97 Colombian coffee production was due to: 1) unusually heavy, sporadic rains that damaged coffee flowering; 2) reduced producer inputs and cultural practices as a result of lower producer prices; 3) an increase in damage by the insect "Broca" that incubates in coffee cherries; 4) the increasing age of coffee trees that results in yield reductions; and, 5) the continual reduction in coffee area as coffee lands are replanted to other crops. The 1996/97 estimate takes into account the high production levels reported by the Colombia Coffee Growers Federation (FEDECAFE) that during April and May production were up 23 and 12 percent, respectively, from the same months a year ago.
Colombian coffee production for the near future is expected to fluctuate between 11 and 13 million bags. Improved yield levels are projected to offset reduced area. Once coffee prices weaken again, the downward trend in area is likely to resume. Grower coffee prices improved dramatically only after February 1997. As a result, growers have regained enthusiasm for the crop and this should result in better cultural practices this year.
Indonesia: Coffee production in 1997/98 is forecast at 6.8 million bags, down 11 percent from last season due to excessive rains and strong winds which occurred last year in several high-elevation areas in Bengkulu, South Sumatra, and Lampung. These provinces account for around 50 percent of total production. The combined effects of the excessive rains and strong winds destroyed some coffee flowers, while the heavy rains decreased soil fertility. Coffee production in East Java is expected to decline by about 20 percent due to the off-year production cycle.
The Government of Indonesia (GOI) production policy remains focused on the rehabilitation and intensification of existing areas rather than of expanding planted area. These efforts were designed to increase yields and improve bean quality. Coffee farmers have access to extension services to improve coffee quality and provide high-yielding clones to replace older trees. In certain areas, old robusta coffee trees are being replaced with arabica seedlings. The main constraint to the expansion of arabica is the limited suitable area at elevations high enough for economical production.
The area planted to coffee for 1997/98 is forecast at 1.15 million hectares, unchanged from 1996/97.
Mexico: Coffee production In 1997/98 is forecast at a record 5.7 million bags, 2 percent above the revised 1996/97 crop of 5.6 million. The projected increase is due to a favorable response to stronger state and federal support programs. The harvested crop area for 1997/98 is forecast at 625,000 hectares, up 2 percent from last season due to Government assistance programs and high international prices.
The 1996/97 production estimate was revised upward as a result of an increase in planted area and favorable weather in the main coffee-producing areas, and higher yields from large and medium coffee growers. The 1995/96 production estimate also was raised based on official statistics and is indicative of improved cultivation practices and new plants which came into production.
Until recently, several factors combined to prevent the opening of new areas for coffee production and investment in established plantings. First, higher grower returns had little effect on improved tree care because small growers commonly spent their increased incomes to meet basic needs rather than to improve cultivation practices. Secondly, many medium and large-scale growers had overdue loans which hampered the allocation of funds to new areas.
The Government's financial support program for coffee in 1997 will total about US$11.5 million, of which $10 million will be used for the removal of trees and overall improvement of coffee production and the remaining $1.5 million will be used to improve roads. The financial support programs launched by the Government will enable small producers to improve cultural practices and raise overall production in the medium and long term through improved varieties that are more resistant to insects and diseases.
Guatemala: Coffee production for 1997/98 in Guatemala is forecast at a record 4.2 million bags, up 2 percent from 1996/97 due to favorable world coffee prices which are enabling growers to improve agronomic practices. Timely rains in March and April, 1997 in the main coffee-producing areas resulted in an early and well-balanced coffee flowering.
Coffee farmers are harvesting fields several times in order to increase the quantity of quality coffee harvested by picking only the ripe beans. In addition, farmers also are harvesting for local consumption marginal-quality coffee beans that otherwise would be left in the field. Harvested area and the number of bearing trees in 1997/98 are projected at 250,000 hectares and 755 million trees, respectively -- both unchanged from the previous season.
India: Coffee production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 3.8 million bags, up 10 percent from last season and 1 percent above the previous record set in 1995/96. The prospects for 1997/98 appear unusually good as more than 80 percent of the traditional coffee-producing states received good showers during the blossom stage and total precipitation was sufficient for a good cherry set. Increased yields are expected as higher coffee prices have led to increased fertilizer usage, particularly among small growers.
India's Coffee Board (CB) operations have changed dramatically since the Government began deregulating the local coffee industry in 1992. The CB is now primarily involved in research, producing new varieties, and creating demand for coffee. It has received U.S.$72 million for the next five years to promote and improve coffee production. Major emphases are on: 1) regulating seed and clonal certification; 2) development of high-yielding varieties; 3) cataloguing and conservation of the coffee gene pool; 4) expanding the use of tissue culture and crop management; and, 5) encouraging production in northeastern areas.
Purchases of coffee seedlings have increased from 6,000 cuttings in 1995/96 to 50,000 cuttings in 1997/98. Most of the new cuttings are expected to be used in existing coffee areas.
Cote d'Ivoire: Coffee production in 1997/98 is forecast at 3.8 million tons, down 18 percent from last year's record level because of dry conditions during flowering. The rains ended early in December 1996, followed by a drought in January. The long duration of the drought caused flower fall which reduced the level of cherry formation. The low level of flowering also was attributed to poor harvest practices during the previous year, including stripping of cherries and leaving large numbers of cherries unharvested on trees. This year also is the off-year of the alternate production cycle.
Based on cuttings purchased by farmers for planting in 1997, new plantings are expected to increase from 7,000 hectares in 1996 to 18,000 hectares in 1997. However, a drop in new plantings is expected in 1998 due to relatively low producer prices, marketing difficulties faced by growers in 1996/97, and a delay in preparation of cuttings for 1998 plantings.
The projected area for harvest in 1997/98, at 1.2 million hectares, is up slightly from last season and the number of bearing trees at 1.5 billion are also up slightly from a year ago.
Franklin E. Hokana
Phone: (202) 720-0875
E-mail: hokana@fas.usda.gov.
World unmanufactured tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 7.51 million tons, up 5 percent from the revised 1996 crop of 7.18 million. Except for China, production is up in all the major trading countries in response to higher world prices. From 1995 to 1996 production rose 13 percent, largely due to the sharp rise in Chinese production. For 1997, Chinese production is forecast to remain unchanged from last year.
United States: Tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 782,000 tons, up 14 percent from 1996 due to increased plantings and higher expected yields. Flue-cured production is forecast at 450,000 tons, up 9 percent from last year, while burley is forecast at 294,000 tons, up 24 percent.
European Union (EU): Tobacco production in the EU for 1997 is forecast at 353,326 tons, down slightly from 1996. The level of tobacco production in the EU is tightly regulated and varies only because of changes in weather. Greece and Italy, the two largest tobacco producers, are forecast to produce 132,000 and 136,000 tons respectively in 1997, little changed from last year. EU tobacco production is based upon type quotas that are issued for each country. For example: in Italy the flue-cured quota is 48,000 tons. The EU quota payment or premium paid directly to the farmer is US$3.13 per kilo. The market price for 1996 flue-cured crop was only US$0.72 per kilo or only 19 percent of total producer return.
China: Tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 2.90 million tons, unchanged from the revised estimate for the 1996 crop which was up 25 percent from 1995. The increase in production over 1995 was due largely to higher yields. Leaf quality in 1996 also was higher, as measured by an increase in the percentage of tobacco in the highest grade and the percentage of tobacco that was up to procurement standards. Currently, weather conditions are favorable for the 1997 crop, and it is believed that the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) will not have a problem with a crop as large as 1996. Flue-cured tobacco accounts for about 95 percent of total production, or 2.76 million tons. Production is estimated at only 75,000 tons and 35,000 tons for burley and oriental, respectively. There is little domestic demand for these types as most cigarettes are made from flue-cured tobacco. The STMA has tried to limit tobacco production by keeping procurement prices low. However, provincial governments collect taxes from tobacco and do not actively support national policy to reduce production.
India: Tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 604,500 tons, up 7 percent from the 1996 crop estimate of 562,750 tons that was revised upward from the original projection because of higher-than-expected yield. For 1997, production is forecast to increase because of increased plantings. This is the result of increased export demand and higher domestic prices. Flue-cured tobacco production for 1997 is estimated at 170,000 tons, up 33 percent from the revised 1996 crop. The increase is due largely to a 25-percent increase in plantings because of a strong export market and higher price supports, as well as lower prices for competitive crops such as chilies and pulses. Burley production is estimated at 8,500 tons, up 125 percent from last year and light air-cured is estimated at 15,000 tons, up 121 percent. Both types are estimated up because of increased plantings and higher yields. Dark air and sun-cured production for 1997 is estimated at 410,500 tons, down 3 percent from revised 1996 output due to reduced plantings. The production of this type is dependent on the free market and has no price support.
Brazil: Tobacco production for 1997 is estimated at 545,000 tons, up 21 percent from 1996 due to higher yields and increased plantings. The 1997 crop also is considered to have the best quality in 10 years. While the price paid for the 1997 crop was unchanged from last year in Reals, it was down about 7 percent in US dollars. However, labor costs are down from last year. This, and the devaluation of the Real, reduced tobacco production costs in the Southern Region 10 percent from last year. Flue-cured production for 1997 is estimated at 386,000 tons, up 22 percent from last year. Burley production increased 29 percent to 90,000 tons, and light air- cured production is up 500 tons, to 4,500 tons. In the Northern Region, production of cigar and dark air and sun-cured production remained unchanged at 6,000 and 54,000 tons respectively.
Argentina: The 1997 tobacco crop is estimated at 122,700 tons, up 25 percent from 1996 due to favorable farm prices, increased plantings, and higher yields due to good weather. An important part of the total payment received by the tobacco producer is provided by the Special Tobacco Fund payment (STF) collected from retail taxes on cigarettes. Last year, the STF was US$1.20 per kilo, while the farm price was about US$1.82 for flue-cured and about US$1.20 per kilo for burley. This year, burley and flue-cured prices are US$2.04 and US$1.35 per kilo, respectively, while the STF is only US$0.70 per kilo because of the larger crop. The lost support is expected to be compensated for from other sources. Flue-cured production is up 28 percent, to 75,500 tons for 1997, with much of this production supported by tobacco buyers through loans and technical support. Burley production is up 35 percent, to 36,200 tons. In Misiones, where 72 percent of the burley is grown and 70 percent of the crop is exported, tobacco quality was better than last year.
Indonesia: Favorable prices and good weather to date are expected to produce a 1997 crop of 184,300 tons , up 4 percent from 1996. Plantings have remained high because of the good prices paid for the high quality 1996 crop. Dark air and sun-cured production is forecast at 117,500 tons, up 5 percent from last year. Most of this tobacco is grown by small farmers on unirrigated land and is used to make clove cigarettes for export. Flue-cured production is forecast up percent, to 45,700 tons, as tobacco prices are more favorable than prices for competing crops. Cigar tobacco production is forecast up 4 percent due largely to higher yields.
Turkey: Total tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 235,400 tons, up almost 3 percent from 1996. Oriental tobacco, the major type grown, is forecast at 229,400 tons, up 2 percent from 1996. Oriental tobacco prices are supported in part by burning low quality stocks. In the last few years, stable production levels and expanding exports have reduced the need to dispose of stocks. In 1994, a total of 70,000 tons were burned. In 1995,16,700 tons were burned, but falling tobacco stocks reduced burning to only 2,500 tons in 1996 and no burning will occur this year. The Government has reduced market controls and the export market for oriental tobacco has expanded. Also, the Government has proposed the ending of current production limits on oriental tobacco, but local observers think controls should be lifted gradually. Tobacco exports have been encouraged by more competitive pricing and limited world supplies.
Malawi: Tobacco production for 1997 is estimated at a record 152,700 tons, up 7 percent from the 142,162-ton crop of 1996. Improved economic conditions and free market outlets, which were opened to small farmers last year, have encouraged production expansion. Most tobacco production is from small 2 hectare plots. Burley is the major type produced with 1997 production estimated at 127,000 tons, up 8 percent from last year. The expansion is attributed to increased plantings. Yields would have been higher this year but higher-than-normal rains levels caused a slight drop in yields. Crop quality for 1997 is very good compared to the gray and moldy 1996 crop. Prices are down 4 percent in US dollars because of the larger crop. There are no price supports in Malawi but tobacco buyers provide loans to producers to plant the crop.
Zimbabwe: Tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 210,580 tons, up 1 percent from last year, but down from the earlier projections due to above- normal rain fall between December 1996 and February 1997. Tobacco quality for 1997 is said to be above average. Flue-cured production for 1997 is estimated at 204,000 tons, down slightly from last year. Burley production is estimated up 5 percent to 6,500 tons. Tobacco prices for 1996 flue cured tobacco were up 37 percent to US$2.94 per kilo, while burley was up 76 percent to US$1.92. Growers think this year's prices will be as good as last year's.
Arthur Hausamann
Phone: (202) 720-0885
E-mail: hausamann@fas.usda.gov.
BURLEY TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTIION----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
----Hectares------ ----Metric tons-----
NORTH AMERICA
Mexico 11,700 12,060 14,493 24,532 26,078 23,852
United States 94,777 108,581 126,469 197,922 236,087 293,928
Total 106,477 120,641 140,962 222,454 262,165 317,780
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina 17,600 18,800 24,200 21,900 26,880 36,200
Brazil 41,000 46,000 54,000 53,000 70,000 90,000
Chile 2,248 2,029 2,290 7,766 6,645 7,634
Colombia 2,000 2,000 2,000 3,205 3,205 3,205
Ecuador 700 700 700 1,700 1,700 1,700
Peru 400 400 400 380 380 380
Uruguay 65 65 65 50 50 50
Venezuela 3,000 2,928 2,928 7,450 7,320 7,349
Total 67,013 72,922 86,583 95,451 116,180 146,518
CENTRAL AMERICA
Costa Rica 148 148 148 325 325 325
El Salvador 195 195 195 368 368 368
Guatemala 6,644 6,900 7,500 9,730 15,275 15,860
Honduras 3,425 3,425 3,425 5,751 5,751 5,751
Nicaragua 1,150 1,150 1,150 2,300 2,300 2,300
Panama 1,094 1,094 1,094 2,188 2,188 2,188
Total 12,656 12,912 13,512 20,662 26,207 26,792
CARIBBEAN
Dominican Republic 1,000 850 850 2,160 2,030 2,030
EUROPEAN UNION
France 2,288 2,217 2,480 6,650 6,794 7,900
Germany 1,143 983 915 2,140 2,673 2,450
Greece 3,700 3,700 3,650 12,375 14,000 13,000
Italy 13,061 13,600 13,600 42,328 46,200 46,200
Portugal 431 431 431 1,231 1,231 1,231
Spain 5,219 4,500 4,500 12,677 12,700 12,700
Total 25,842 25,431 25,576 77,401 83,598 83,481
OTHER W. EUROPE
Switzerland 674 670 670 1,490 1,295 1,295
EASTERN EUROPE
Bulgaria 1,604 1,828 2,000 1,634 2,232 2,449
Czech Rep & Slovak 800 800 800 1,240 1,240 1,240
Poland 4,100 4,130 5,160 8,500 8,335 10,800
Romania 3,000 3,200 3,300 3,500 3,700 3,800
Serbia & Montenegro 3,500 4,000 2,700 3,774 4,551 3,330
Total 13,004 13,958 13,960 18,648 20,058 21,619
FOOTNOTES AT END OF TABLE BURLEY TOBACCO AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS -----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTIION---- 1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997 ----Hectares-------- -------Metric tons--- NORTH AFRICA Libya 360 360 360 859 859 859 Morocco 3,360 3,360 3,360 3,500 3,500 3,500 Tunisia 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,500 6,500 6,500 Total 10,420 10,420 10,420 10,859 10,859 10,859 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola 250 250 250 200 200 200 Kenya 250 250 250 278 278 278 Madagascar 2,150 2,150 2,150 1,545 1,545 1,545 Malawi 67,492 78,624 86,000 101,450 117,937 127,000 Mozambique 950 950 950 1,150 1,150 1,150 Zaire 650 650 650 660 660 660 Zambia 800 800 800 1,000 1,000 1,000 Zimbabwe 6,950 5,014 5,900 10,259 6,175 6,500 Total 79,492 88,688 96,950 116,542 128,945 138,333 ASIA Bangladesh 1,740 1,740 1,740 2,000 2,000 2,000 China 41,000 35,000 35,000 80,000 75,000 75,000 India 7,000 5,000 8,600 6,750 3,750 8,500 Japan 7,834 7,718 8,033 24,975 22,565 24,000 Korea, South 10,201 9,020 8,220 31,345 19,770 22,630 Malaysia 373 502 515 400 497 540 Pakistan 275 350 350 590 669 700 Philippines 8,951 8,422 5,000 16,560 15,160 9,000 Sri Lanka 843 843 843 1,347 1,347 1,347 Thailand 8,000 11,800 15,000 20,000 30,000 36,000 Total 86,217 80,395 83,301 183,967 170,758 179,717 MIDDLE EAST Syria 1,220 1,220 1,220 2,440 2,440 2,440 Turkey 700 800 1,000 1,600 1,700 2,000 Total 1,920 2,020 2,220 4,040 4,140 4,440 OTHER 2/ 3,110 2,901 3,719 3,333 3,091 4,175 WORLD 407,825 431,808 478,723 757,007 829,326 937,039
1/ Forecast.
2/ Includes Haiti, Austria, Ghana, Swaziland,Tanzania, New Zealand, Uganda, and Moldova.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
DARK AIR-CURED TOBACCO, CIGAR
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTION----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
----Hectares-------- -----Metric tons---
NORTH AMERICA
Canada 400 400 400 709 709 709
Mexico 216 155 1,195 285 97 538
United States 3,946 4,274 4,186 9,001 8,861 8,936
Total 4,562 4,829 5,781 9,995 9,667 10,183
SOUTH AMERICA
Brazil 3,000 3,000 3,000 5,000 6,000 6,000
Ecuador 125 125 125 125 125 125
Total 3,125 3,125 3,125 5,125 6,125 6,125
CENTRAL AMERICA
Honduras 500 500 500 1,240 1,240 1,240
Nicaragua 450 450 450 950 950 950
Total 950 950 950 2,190 2,190 2,190
CARIBBEAN
Cuba 59,000 59,000 59,000 28,000 33,000 37,000
Jamaica 628 628 628 1,127 1,127 1,127
Total 59,628 59,628 59,628 29,127 34,127 38,127
EUROPEAN UNION
Spain 363 380 360 1108 1370 1100
Total 363 380 360 1,108 1,370 1,100
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Cameroon 2,590 2,590 2,590 4,900 4,900 4,900
Cent. Afr. Rep. 750 750 750 650 650 650
Total 3,340 3,340 3,340 5,550 5,550 5,550
ASIA
Indonesia 15,800 16,200 16,000 20,000 20,200 21,100
Philippines 8,227 7,894 6,000 9,050 8,920 6,600
Thailand 3,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 750
Total 27,027 26,094 23,500 30,550 30,120 28,450
OTHER 2/ 534 534 534 972 972 972
WORLD 99,529 98,880 97,218 84,617 90,121 92,697
1/ Forecast.
2/ Includes Costa Rica, St. Vincent, Chad, and Spain.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
DARK FIRE-CURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTION---
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
----Hectares-------- -----Metric tons---
NORTH AMERICA
Mexico 800 800 0 770 71 0
United States 6,831 6,710 6,912 17,776 20,061 17,962
Total 7,631 7,510 6,912 18,546 20,132 17,962
European Union
Italy 2,478 2,500 2,500 6,149 6,500 6,500
EASTERN EUROPE
Poland 1,300 3,034 1,190 3,648 6,899 2,920
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Benin 66 66 66 133 133 133
Ghana 190 190 190 100 100 100
Kenya 3,055 3,055 3,055 3,712 3,712 3,712
Malawi 24,680 25,000 26,000 8,180 7,742 8,500
Mali 333 333 333 183 183 183
Tanzania 8,400 8,400 8,400 5,000 5,000 5,000
Togo 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Zaire 1,350 1,350 1,350 986 986 986
Total 40,074 40,394 41,394 19,294 18,856 19,614
OTHER 2/ 1,244 1,244 1,244 1,295 1,295 1,295
WORLD 52,727 54,682 53,240 48,932 53,682 48,291
1/ Forecast.
2/ Includes Liberia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Liberia.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment, FAS, USDA
DARK AIR/SUN-CURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTION----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
----Hectares-------- ------Metric tons---
NORTH AMERICA
Canada 400 400 400 800 800 800
United States 1,691 1,558 1,562 3,886 3,901 3,765
Total 2,091 1,958 1,962 4,686 4,701 4,565
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina 8,700 8,100 6,650 12,200 11,120 10,700
Bolivia 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250
Brazil 53,000 59,000 59,000 48,000 54,000 54,000
Colombia 13,325 13,325 13,325 20,451 20,451 20,451
Ecuador 325 325 325 450 450 450
Paraguay 5,200 5,200 5,200 9,100 9,100 9,100
Peru 800 800 800 800 800 800
Total 82,600 88,000 86,550 92,251 97,171 96,751
CARIBBEAN
Dominican Republic 15,236 19,300 22,000 17,115 21,800 26,000
European Union
France 3,911 3,731 3,430 12,072 12,247 11,100
Germany 1,143 1,115 1,140 2,669 3,165 3,050
Italy 9,066 10,000 10,000 16,941 19,000 19,000
Total 14,120 14,846 14,570 31,682 34,412 33,150
EASTERN EUROPE
Albania 24,000 24,000 24,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Hungary 3,000 2,900 3,800 7,340 6,300 8,050
Poland 2,654 367 150 6,600 693 330
Romania 2,300 2,400 2,400 2,600 2,600 2,700
Total 31,954 29,667 30,350 31,540 24,593 26,080
NORTH AFRICA
Algeria 2,400 2,400 2,400 4,300 4,300 4,300
Libya 300 300 300 533 533 533
Morocco 108 108 108 191 191 191
Total 2,808 2,808 2,808 5,024 5,024 5,024
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Angola 500 500 500 500 500 500
Burundi 705 705 705 705 705 705
Congo 2,200 2,200 2,200 750 750 750
Cote d'Ivoire 10,000 10,000 10,000 2,600 2,600 2,600
Madagascar 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,300 1,300 1,300
Malawi 1,815 1,750 2,000 605 573 700
Mali 333 333 333 183 183 183
Mozambique 400 400 400 230 230 230
Nigeria 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,070 1,070 1,070
South Africa 1,797 1,807 2,200 2,912 3,578 3,740
Swaziland 100 100 100 100 100 100
Togo 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Zaire 450 450 450 532 532 532
Total 22,500 22,445 23,088 12,487 13,121 13,410
ASIA
Bangladesh 32,930 32,930 32,930 38,000 38,000 38,000
Burma 32,764 32,764 32,764 41,400 41,400 41,400
Cambodia 6,400 6,400 6,400 3,800 3,800 3,800
China 95,000 25,000 25,000 150,000 35,000 35,000
India 272,600 264,000 254,000 461,750 425,000 410,500
Indonesia 136,000 137,500 138,000 109,000 112,200 117,500
Korea, North 15,100 15,100 15,100 18,400 18,400 18,400
Laos 6,260 6,260 6,260 24,342 24,342 24,342
Pakistan 279 450 425 600 1,180 1,120
Sri Lanka 1,726 1,726 1,726 1,654 1,654 1,654
Vietnam 22,500 22,500 22,500 20,800 20,800 20,800
Total 621,559 544,630 535,105 869,746 721,776 712,516
MIDDLE EAST
Iran 4,780 4,780 4,780 7,200 7,200 7,200
Oman 1,800 1,800 1,800 2,000 2,000 2,000
United Arab Em. 350 350 350 2,000 2,000 2,000
Total 6,930 6,930 6,930 11,200 11,200 11,200
OTHER 2/ 711 711 721 751 751 771
WORLD 800,509 731,295 724,084 1,076,482 934,549 929,467
1/ Forecast.
2/ Includes Solomon Islands, Uruguay, Haiti, Ghana, St Vincent, Benin, and Zimbabwe.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Divisoin, FAS, USDA
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTION-----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
----Hectares-------- ------Metric tons---
NORTH AMERICA
Canada 29,800 29,800 29,800 77,778 77,778 77,778
Mexico 3,150 3,487 3,934 7,342 7,156 7,690
United States 156,289 170,864 183,208 338,660 412,018 449,964
Total 189,239 204,151 216,942 423,780 496,952 535,432
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina 26,600 31,500 40,000 43,150 58,800 75,500
Brazil 160,000 174,000 201,000 289,000 317,000 386,000
Chile 1,603 1,274 1,211 4,590 3,891 3,483
Colombia 1,840 1,840 1,840 3,397 3,397 3,397
Ecuador 650 650 650 1,575 1,575 1,575
Peru 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,820 1,820 1,820
Uruguay 665 665 665 1,250 1,250 1,250
Venezuela 4,563 4,392 4,392 11,407 10,541 10,980
Total 197,121 215,521 250,958 356,189 398,274 484,005
CENTRAL AMERICA
Costa Rica 283 283 283 600 600 600
El Salvador 366 366 366 670 670 670
Guatemala 1,566 1,323 1,850 990 1,000 1,890
Honduras 1,042 1,042 1,042 2,030 2,030 2,030
Nicaragua 500 500 500 1,000 1,000 1,000
Total 3,757 3,514 4,041 5,290 5,300 6,190
CARIBBEAN
Dominican Republic 1,320 788 750 2,630 2,269 2,340
Jamaica 547 547 547 1,212 1,212 1,212
Total 1,867 1,335 1,297 3,842 3,481 3,552
EUROPEAN UNION
France 3,513 3,302 3,340 8,618 8,620 8,600
Germany 1,244 1,282 1,445 2,027 2,475 2,600
Greece 11,000 11,000 11,000 34,500 33,500 35,000
Italy 18,106 18,500 18,500 46,296 50,000 49,500
Portugal 2,478 2,478 2,478 4,995 4,995 4,995
Spain 10,889 11,300 11,300 28,972 29,000 29,000
Total 47,230 47,862 48,063 125,408 128,590 129,695
EASTERN EUROPE
Bulgaria 4,602 5,527 6,500 8,567 7,588 11,276
Czech Rep & Slovakia 2,000 2,000 2,000 3,709 3,709 3,709
Hungary 2,500 2,400 2,800 2,800 3,100 4,366
Poland 10,500 11,037 12,500 21,000 22,283 26,000
Romania 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,800 5,000 5,200
Serbia & Montenegro 1,500 2,500 1,100 1,221 2,220 1,166
Total 24,802 27,264 28,800 42,097 43,900 51,717
FOOTNOTES AT END OF TABLE
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTION-----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
----Hectares-------- ------Metric tons-----
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Angola 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200
Ethiopia 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,750 1,750 1,750
Ghana 3,230 3,230 3,230 1,120 1,120 1,120
Kenya 5,500 5,500 5,500 5,920 5,920 5,920
Madagascar 750 750 750 1,200 1,200 1,200
Malawi 10,651 7,649 7,800 19,947 15,410 16,000
Mozambique 1,270 1,270 1,270 1,350 1,350 1,350
Nigeria 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,752 1,752 1,752
South Africa 11,021 11,668 13,000 16,348 18,867 25,960
Tanzania 25,400 25,400 25,400 20,000 20,000 20,000
Uganda 5,375 5,375 5,375 5,145 5,145 5,145
Zaire 880 880 880 1,400 1,400 1,400
Zambia 4,082 4,082 4,082 5,300 5,300 5,300
Zimbabwe 74,606 81,500 93,000 198,752 201,550 204,000
Total 148,565 153,104 166,087 283,184 283,964 294,097
ASIA
Bangladesh 17,330 17,330 17,330 20,000 20,000 20,000
Burma 3,236 3,236 3,236 2,600 2,600 2,600
Cambodia 2,600 2,600 2,600 1,200 1,200 1,200
China 1,309,000 1,465,000 1,465,00 2,072,700 2,755,000 2,755,000
India 106,500 124,140 155,200 110,100 127,000 170,000
Indonesia 60,700 62,000 63,500 42,400 44,600 45,700
Japan 17,820 17,698 18,196 51,370 41,735 50,000
Korea, North 15,100 15,100 15,100 18,400 18,400 18,400
Korea, South 22,029 20,880 18,970 52,517 41,240 45,370
Laos 1,150 1,150 1,150 2,300 2,300 2,300
Malaysia 10,525 10,982 11,300 10,467 11,988 12,500
Pakistan 20,539 18,200 17,500 42,586 39,360 38,000
Philippines 26,092 26,660 23,000 39,920 39,990 32,200
Sri Lanka 6,117 6,117 6,117 4,909 4,909 4,909
Taiwan 5,140 4,165 4,165 12,996 11,410 9,890
Thailand 20,000 19,000 18,000 25,000 25,000 23,000
Vietnam 13,500 13,500 13,500 11,200 11,200 11,200
Total 1,657,378 1,827,758 1,853,864 2,520,665 3,197,932 3,242,269
MIDDLE EAST
Iran 2,750 2,750 2,750 5,300 5,300 5,300
Jordan 1,850 1,850 1,850 4,800 4,800 4,800
Syria 4,122 2,875 2,875 8,829 5,750 5,750
Turkey 1,600 1,800 2,000 3,300 3,700 4,000
Yemen 3,300 3,300 3,300 5,720 5,720 5,720
Total 13,622 12,575 12,775 27,949 25,270 25,570
OCEANIA
Australia 3,300 3,300 3,200 7,620 9,100 9,600
New Zealand 583 583 583 1,520 1,520 1,520
Total 3,883 3,883 3,783 9,140 10,620 11,120
OTHER 2/ 3,233 2,758 3,418 4,458 3,655 4,742
WORLD 2,290,697 2,499,725 2,590,028 3,802,002 4,597,938 4,788,389
1/ Forecast.
2/ Includes Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago, Benin, Mauritius, Reunion, and Moldova.
June 1997 Producation Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
LIGHT AIR-CURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- ------ PRODUCTION-----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
------Hectares-------- -------Metric tons----
NORTH AMERICA
Mexico 4,970 5,841 5,755 12,498 14,764 11,336
United States 4,816 4,533 4,452 8,135 7,294 7,394
Total 9,786 10,374 10,207 20,633 22,058 18,730
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina 600 600 150 1,760 1,400 300
Brazil 2,000 3,000 5,000 3,000 5,000 9,000
Colombia 740 740 740 1,125 1,125 1,125
Peru 100 100 100 100 100 100
Total 3,440 4,440 5,990 5,985 7,625 10,525
CENTRAL AMERICA
Costa Rica 542 542 542 1125 1125 1125
Honduras 148 148 148 120 120 120
Nicaragua 140 140 140 300 300 300
Total 830 830 830 1,545 1,545 1,545
EUROPEAN UNION
Italy 842 900 900 1,695 1,800 1,800
Total 842 900 900 1,695 1,800 1,800
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Cameroon 810 810 810 600 600 600
Congo 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,050 1,050 1,050
Madagascar 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,455 1,455 1,455
Niger 1,000 1,000 1,000 930 930 930
Nigeria 5,000 5,000 5,000 6,401 6,401 6,401
Reunion 100 100 100 100 100 100
Zaire 370 370 370 532 532 532
Total 11,080 11,080 11,080 11,068 11,068 11,068
ASIA
India 5,000 5,000 9,000 8,500 7,000 15,500
Japan 704 641 519 1,867 1,731 1,600
Korea, North 6,800 6,800 6,800 9,200 9,200 9,200
Pakistan 20,484 19,200 19,000 26,588 25,450 25,000
Sri Lanka 3,479 3,479 3,479 1,090 1,090 1,090
Total 36,467 35,120 38,798 47,245 44,471 52,390
MIDDLE EAST
Syria 300 300 300 270 270 270
OTHER 2/ 382 382 382 1,114 1,114 1,114
WORLD 63,127 63,426 68,487 89,555 89,951 97,442
1/ Forecast.
2/ Includes Mauritius, and Algeria.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
ORIENTAL TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- -------- PRODUCTION-----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
----Hectares-------- -------Metric tons-----
EUROPEAN UNION
Greece 55,300 52,650 52,600 85,000 84,000 84,000
Italy 6,164 7,000 7,000 11,083 12,500 13,000
Total 61,464 59,650 59,600 96,083 96,500 97,000
EASTERN EUROPE
Bulgaria 8,049 20,507 30,000 16,339 33,392 55,102
Romania 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,400 2,700 2,800
Serbia & Montenegro 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,998 1,998 1,721
Total 12,549 24,607 33,700 20,737 38,090 59,623
FSU-12
Armenia 4,304 4,304 4,304 1,100 1,100 1,100
Azerbaijan 5,000 4,500 4,500 10,500 10,000 10,500
Belarus 1,076 1,076 1,076 2,606 2,606 2,606
Georgia 5,380 5,380 5,380 8,800 8,800 8,800
Kazakstan 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,100 2,100 2,100
Kyrgyzstan 8,000 12,000 12,000 19,000 30,000 30,000
Moldova 17,800 18,350 23,000 24,366 23,913 33,695
Russia 1,270 817 800 740 580 700
Tajikistan 3,228 3,228 3,228 10,593 10,593 10,593
Turkmenistan 1,076 1,076 1,076 2,570 2,570 2,570
Ukraine 5,380 5,380 5,380 6,000 6,000 6,000
Uzbekistan 11,000 11,000 11,000 22,000 30,000 30,000
Total 65,666 69,263 73,896 110,375 128,262 138,664
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Ethiopia 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,750 1,750 1,750
Malawi 1,100 800 1,100 504 500 500
South Africa 1,242 1,242 1,300 747 584 638
Zimbabwe 200 275 393 31 42 60
Total 4,042 3,817 4,293 3,032 2,876 2,948
ASIA
China 10,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 35,000 35,000
Pakistan 5,866 7,567 7,000 10,553 14,101 13,500
Thailand 11,300 13,000 15,200 9,000 12,500 14,500
Total 27,166 35,567 37,200 34,553 61,601 63,000
MIDDLE EAST
Iran 10,470 10,470 10,470 12,500 12,500 12,500
Iraq 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,180 2,180 2,180
Lebanon 3,750 3,750 3,750 5,000 5,000 5,000
Syria 11,358 10,110 10,110 11,827 8,748 8,748
Turkey 257,000 233,726 265,000 200,000 224,000 229,400
Total 284,578 260,056 291,330 231,507 252,428 257,828
OTHER 2/ 299 299 1099 105 105 982
WORLD 455,764 453,259 501,118 496,392 579,862 620,045
1/ Forecast.
2/ Includes Cyprus, Libya, Honduras, and Mexico.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
TOTAL UNMANUFACTURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
-----AREA------- --------- PRODUCTION----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
--------Hectares-------- -------Metric tons-----
NORTH AMERICA
Canada 30,600 30,600 30,600 79,287 79,287 79,287
Mexico 20,836 22,343 26,177 45,427 48,166 44,293
United States 268,350 296,520 326,789 575,380 688,222 781,949
Total 319,786 349,463 383,566 700,094 815,675 905,529
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina 53,500 59,000 71,000 79,010 98,200 122,700
Bolivia 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250
Brazil 259,000 285,000 322,000 398,000 452,000 545,000
Chile 3,851 3,303 3,501 12,356 10,536 11,117
Colombia 17,905 17,905 17,905 28,178 28,178 28,178
Ecuador 1,800 1,800 1,800 3,850 3,850 3,850
Paraguay 5,200 5,200 5,200 9,100 9,100 9,100
Peru 2,500 2,500 2,500 3,100 3,100 3,100
Uruguay 800 800 800 1,400 1,400 1,400
Venezuela 7,563 7,320 7,320 18,857 17,861 18,329
Total 353,369 384,078 433,276 555,101 625,475 744,024
CENTRAL AMERICA
Costa Rica 1,072 1,072 1,072 2,180 2,180 2,180
El Salvador 561 561 561 1,038 1,038 1,038
Guatemala 8,210 8,223 9,350 10,720 16,275 17,750
Honduras 5,157 5,157 5,157 9,177 9,177 9,177
Nicaragua 2,240 2,240 2,240 4,550 4,550 4,550
Panama 1,094 1,094 1,094 2,188 2,188 2,188
Total 18,334 18,347 19,474 29,853 35,408 36,883
CARIBBEAN
Cuba 59,000 59,000 59,000 28,000 33,000 37,000
Dominican Republic 17,556 20,938 23,600 21,905 26,099 30,370
Jamaica 1,175 1,175 1,175 2,339 2,339 2,339
Total 77,731 81,113 83,775 52,244 61,438 69,709
EUROPEAN UNION
Belgium-Luxembourg 363 380 360 1,108 1,370 1,100
France 9,712 9,250 9,250 27,340 27,661 27,600
Germany 3,530 3,380 3,500 6,836 8,313 8,100
Greece 70,000 67,350 67,250 131,875 131,500 132,000
Italy 49,717 52,500 52,500 124,492 136,000 136,000
Portugal 2,909 2,909 2,909 6,226 6,226 6,226
Spain 16,308 16,000 16,000 42,249 42,300 42,300
Total 152,539 151,769 151,769 340,126 353,370 353,326
EASTERN EUROPE
Albania 24,000 24,000 24,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Bulgaria 14,255 27,862 38,500 26,540 43,212 68,827
Czech Rep & Slovak 2,800 2,800 2,800 4,949 4,949 4,949
Hungary 5,500 5,300 6,600 10,140 9,400 12,416
Poland 18,554 18,568 19,000 39,748 38,210 40,050
Romania 11,000 11,500 11,800 13,300 14,000 14,500
Serbia & Montenegro 7,500 8,500 5,300 6,993 8,769 6,217
Total 83,609 98,530 108,000 116,670 133,540 161,959
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
FOOTNOTES AT END OF TABLE
TOTAL UNMANUFACTURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
---------AREA----------- -------- PRODUCTION---
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
------Hectares-------- ------Metric tons-----
FSU-12
Armenia 4,304 4,304 4,304 1,100 1,100 1,100
Azerbaijan 5,000 4,500 4,500 10,500 10,000 10,500
Belarus 1,076 1,076 1,076 2,606 2,606 2,606
Georgia 5,380 5,380 5,380 8,800 8,800 8,800
Kazakstan 2,152 2,152 2,152 2,100 2,100 2,100
Kyrgyzstan 8,000 12,000 12,000 19,000 30,000 30,000
Moldova 20,100 20,000 26,130 27,500 26,087 38,043
Russia 1,270 817 800 740 580 700
Tajikistan 3,228 3,228 3,228 10,593 10,593 10,593
Turkmenistan 1,076 1,076 1,076 2,570 2,570 2,570
Ukraine 5,380 5,380 5,380 6,000 6,000 6,000
Uzbekistan 11,000 11,000 11,000 22,000 30,000 30,000
Total 67,966 70,913 77,026 113,509 130,436 143,012
NORTH AFRICA
Algeria 2,700 2,700 2,700 5,300 5,300 5,300
Libya 900 900 900 1,450 1,450 1,450
Morocco 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,962 3,962 3,962
Tunisia 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,500 6,500 6,500
Total 13,800 13,800 13,800 17,212 17,212 17,212
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Angola 3,950 3,950 3,950 3,900 3,900 3,900
Burundi 705 705 705 705 705 705
Cameroon 3,400 3,400 3,400 5,500 5,500 5,500
Central Africa Rep 750 750 750 650 650 650
Congo 4,000 4,000 4,000 1,800 1,800 1,800
Cote d'Ivoire 10,000 10,000 10,000 2,600 2,600 2,600
Ethiopia 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,500 3,500 3,500
Ghana 3950 3950 3950 1500 1500 1500
Kenya 8,805 8,805 8,805 9,910 9,910 9,910
Madagascar 5,900 5,900 5,900 5,500 5,500 5,500
Malawi 105,738 113,823 122,900 130,686 142,162 152,700
Mozambique 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,900 2,900 2,900
Niger 1,000 1,000 1,000 930 930 930
Nigeria 7,300 7,300 7,300 9,223 9,223 9,223
Reunion 200 200 200 200 200 200
South Africa 14,060 14,717 16,500 20,007 23,029 30,338
Swaziland 200 200 200 200 200 200
Tanzania 33,900 33,900 33,900 25,080 25,080 25,080
Togo 4,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Uganda 7,525 7,525 7,525 7,198 7,198 7,198
Zaire 3,700 3,700 3,700 4,110 4,110 4,110
Zambia 4,882 4,882 4,882 6,300 6,300 6,300
Zimbabwe 81,756 86,789 99,303 209,042 207,767 210,580
Total 311,421 325,196 348,570 453,441 466,664 487,324
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
FOOTNOTES AT END OF TABLE
TOTAL UNMANUFACTURED TOBACCO
AREA AND PRODUCTION, WORLD AND SELECTED REGIONS
---------AREA----------- -------- PRODUCTION----
1995 1996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997
-------Hectares-------- --------Metric tons----
ASIA
Bangladesh 52,000 52,000 52,000 60,000 60,000 60,000
Burma 36,000 36,000 36,000 44,000 44,000 44,000
Cambodia 9,000 9,000 9,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
China 1,455,000 1,540,000 1,540,000 2,317,700 2,900,000 2,900,000
India 391,100 398,140 426,800 587,100 562,750 604,500
Indonesia 212,500 215,700 217,500 171,400 177,000 184,300
Japan 26,358 26,057 26,748 78,212 66,031 75,600
Korea, North 37,000 37,000 37,000 46,000 46,000 46,000
Korea, South 32,230 29,900 27,190 83,862 61,010 68,000
Laos 7,410 7,410 7,410 26,642 26,642 26,642
Malaysia 10,898 11,484 11,815 10,867 12,485 13,040
Pakistan 47,443 45,767 44,275 80,917 80,760 78,320
Philippines 43,270 42,976 34,000 65,530 64,070 47,800
Sri Lanka 12,165 12,165 12,165 9,000 9,000 9,000
Taiwan 5,140 4,165 4,165 12,996 11,410 9,890
Thailand 42,300 45,800 49,700 55,500 68,500 74,250
Vietnam 36,000 36,000 36,000 32,000 32,000 32,000
Total 2,455,814 2,549,564 2,571,768 3,686,726 4,226,658 4,278,342
MIDDLE EAST
Iran 18,000 18,000 18,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
Iraq 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,180 2,180 2,180
Jordan 1,850 1,850 1,850 4,800 4,800 4,800
Lebanon 3,750 3,750 3,750 5,000 5,000 5,000
Oman 1,800 1,800 1,800 2,000 2,000 2,000
Syria 17,000 14,505 14,505 23,366 17,208 17,208
Turkey 259,300 236,326 268,000 204,900 229,400 235,400
United Arab Em. 350 350 350 2,000 2,000 2,000
Yemen 3,300 3,300 3,300 5,720 5,720 5,720
Total 307,350 281,881 313,555 274,966 293,308 299,308
OCEANIA
Australia 3,300 3,300 3,200 7,620 9,100 9,600
New Zealand 600 600 600 1,550 1,550 1,550
Total 3,900 3,900 3,800 9,170 10,650 11,150
OTHER 3/ 4,559 4,521 4,519 5,875 5,595 5,592
WORLD 4,170,1788 4,333,075 4,512,898 6,354,987 7,175,429 7,513,370
1/ Forecast.
2/ FSU-12 includes the 12 newly independent states of the former USSR.
3/ Includes Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad & Tobago, Benin, Mauritius, Mali, Sierra Leone,St. Vincent, Cyprus, Solomo Islands, Israel, Switzerland, Austria, Chad, and Liberia.
June 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
This article presents early indications of the 1997/98 rice crop prospects outside the United States. Information in this article is based on field reports received from U.S. agricultural attaches, together with analysis from Washington-based USDA staff. The first official USDA forecast of individual countries' area, yield, and production will be released July 12, 1997. Currently, the 1997/98 total foreign production is forecast at 372.0 million tons (milled-basis), down 3.6 million or 1 percent from 1996/97. Refer to Table 10, Rice Area, Yield, and Production for 1994/95 - 1996/97 country detail.
China: As the Chinese Government continues to strive to maintain a high level of grain production, rice area in 1997/98 is projected to change little from the 30.7 million hectares harvested last year. Higher prices likely will discourage farmers from switching to cash crops or alternative land uses. Farmers will continue to emphasize higher-quality, but lower-yielding rice varieties. Most rice is planted along the Yangtze River and in southern China, although some single-crop rice is produced in the northern provinces. China produces three rice crops annually: early rice is planted in April and harvested in July; single-crop rice is planted in May and harvested in September; and late double-cropped rice is planted in June and harvested in October. Precipitation over central and southern China has been adequate, favoring the vegetative early-season rice and replenishing irrigation supplies.
India: Rice area is projected to exceed the 42.7 million hectares harvested in 1996/97. The increase in area is forecast as land suitable for irrigation continues to expand. However, the primary constraint to production is the performance of the monsoon. Planting of the 1997/98 crop begins in June, at the start of the monsoon season. About 85 to 90 percent of the rice crop is planted at some point during the monsoon. India's rice area and yield are dependent on monsoon performance, because only 55 percent of the rice is rainfed. In the three states of Punjab, Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh over 95 percent of the rice crop is irrigated and accounts for approximately 25 percent of total national production. The use of fertilizer and high- yielding varieties is high in these states, although, for the nation as a whole, usage is limited. In Punjab, Haryana, and West Uttar Pradesh, there are indications that intensive rice-wheat rotation is causing soil problems (salinity, persistent weeds, and flat yields). However, a major shift from rice to less irrigation-intensive crops is not imminent in the absence of a more profitable crop rotation.
Bangladesh: Rice area is projected to be similar to the 10.0 million hectares harvested in 1996/97. Twenty eight percent of total rice area is irrigated, making rice particularly dependent on monsoon rainfall. Although harvested area has declined slightly over the last ten years (due to diversification), the crop mix between the first crop Aus and the last crop Boro have reversed. The Aus crop has lost nearly 1.5 million hectares over ten years, while the Boro crop gained about 1.0 million hectares. The late- May cyclone did little damage to either the 1996/97 Boro crop or 1997/98 Aus crop.
Pakistan: Rice area is projected to be similar to the 1996/97 level of 2.2 million hectares. Nearly all rice is irrigated, drawing on both surface and groundwater sources. In an effort to improve yields, the Government has a price-support system which is adjusted each year to keep pace with changes in the cost of production. The 1996/97 price support for paddy rice increased 15 percent for all varieties, while the prices for milled rice were increased 10 percent for Basmati varieties and 15 percent for IRRI varieties. The 1997/98 level is expected to increase at least 10 percent to cover the increases in production costs.
Thailand: Rice area for 1997/98 is projected to be higher than the 1996/97 level due in part to current attractive price of the main crop, especially jasmine/fragrant. Also, increased water supplies in Chao Phraya reservoir should encourage farmers to increase the dry-season crop. The main-season (rainfed) crop, comprising about 85 percent of total production, is planted from May through August and harvested from mid-October to late January. The second-season crop is planted in January - February and harvested from June - August. Thai farmers continue to have one of the lowest fertilizer use rates of any country in Asia and fertilizer use is expected to be similar to the previous years. High-yielding varieties are primarily grown during the dry season, but are increasingly being integrated into the main season crop.
Burma: Rice area in 1997/98 is likely to be up slightly from 1996/97 as irrigated cropland and second-crop area continues to expand. The second crop is mostly irrigated and comprises about 25 percent of the total rice area, while 10 percent of the main crop is irrigated. Although the Government is intent on improving yield this year, inferior seeds plus the shortage and high price of inputs will still be the major problems hampering production in both crops. Spring-rice planting commenced in May with the arrival of rain.
Indonesia: Rice area is projected to be stable for 1997/98. The Government is continuing its effort to increase production by developing new rice fields in central Kalimantan and expanding the irrigation network. About 55 percent of the total crop is produced on the island of Java and nearly 25 percent on Sumatra. Planting of the 1997/98 crop will begin this fall with the onset of the rainy season.
Vietnam: Vietnam's three rice crops will likely be similar to those harvested in 1996/97. Harvested area is projected to stabilize as the Government tries to maintain its production base in order to sustain exports. Actual yields will depend upon the level of input use and the performance of monsoon rains.
Japan: Rice area is projected to decrease slightly from the 2.0 million hectares harvested in 1996/97 as producers continue to respond to the Government's rice diversion program. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries announced that it will not change the requirements for rice paddy diversion to alternative crops from the target of 787,000 hectares effective April 1997 - March 1998. In 1996/97, favorable weather throughout the growing season allowed the producers to harvest their second-highest yielding rice crop.
Timothy Rocke, World Grains Chairman
Phone: (202) 720-1572 E:mail: rocke@fas.usda.gov
Total grain production in the former Soviet Union (FSU-15) for 1997/98 is estimated at 127.1 million tons (not including rice, pulses and miscellaneous grains), up 7.6 million from last year. The increase is driven chiefly by a projected jump in Ukrainian output: production is forecast to rebound by nearly 8 million tons from the low 1996/97 harvest, while production in Russia, Kazakstan, Belarus, and Central Asia is estimated near last year's levels.
Russian total-grain production is estimated at 65.9 million tons, down marginally from 66.8 million in 1996/97, with estimated wheat output nearly unchanged from last year's 35.0 million. Higher yields are projected to compensate for a 2.0-million-hectare decline in total grain area. Winter grains (especially winter wheat) have gotten off to a good start: over- wintering conditions were favorable and winterkill was relatively low. Soil- moisture levels were adequate for spring-grain establishment throughout European Russia.
Ukraine's 1996 grain crop suffered from persistently unfavorable weather and production fell to a 33-year low of 23.0 million tons. Production for 1997/98 is forecast to rebound to 30.8 million tons. Wheat output is estimated at 17.5 million tons, up 4.0 million from last year. Winter wheat comprises nearly half of Ukraine's total grain area and winter grains benefitted from excellent fall establishment conditions for the first time in five years. Corn production is estimated at 3.5 million tons, a 1.6-million- ton increase over last year when punishing drought in southern Ukraine compelled farmers to harvest half of the intended corn-for-grain area as silage corn. Belarus total-grain production is estimated at 5.8 million tons, nearly unchanged from last year, and Moldova output is set at 2.4 million, up from 1.8 million in 1996/97. Both wheat and corn production are forecast to increase from last year when severe summer drought and torrential September rains suppressed yields.
Although early-season weather has been generally favorable for grains in European FSU, the reduced application of fertilizers and plant-protection agents will again hamper yields. Despite a reported year-to-year increase in the amount of fertilizers delivered to farms in Russia and Ukraine, farms still face severe financial constraints. The estimated application rates for 1997 remain roughly 80 percent below the level of 1990 when intensive technology was in full swing and the use of fertilizers and pesticides was at its peak.
Kazakstan grain production is estimated at 11.6 million tons, including 8.5 million of wheat. An increase in projected yield is likely to nudge production above last year's 10.9 million tons despite a 700,000-hectare reduction in total grain area. Since 1993, spring-wheat area has been virtually stable at approximately 11.5 million hectares while spring-barley area has plummeted from 7.0 to an estimated 3.0 million hectares over the same time.
Since Kazakstan's grain-production region lies in a zone of marginally adequate precipitation, yield is especially vulnerable to drought and can fluctuate sharply from year to year. Typically, one year in five is marked by drought. For the past two years key grain-production oblasts in northern Kazakstan have fallen victim to severe dryness. Farmers also must grapple with the same problem faced by producers in European FSU: insufficient financial resources with which to obtain fertilizers, chemicals, and quality planting seed.
In Uzbekistan, early prospects for winter wheat--which comprises over 70 percent of total grain production--are not especially favorable, according to a U.S. agricultural attache report. Grain production is estimated at 2.8 million tons, not including rice. Winter-grain establishment was hampered by unusually low fall and winter rainfall which also resulted in inadequate recharge of irrigation reserves. Roughly two-thirds of the winter-wheat crop is irrigated. Elsewhere in Central Asia, grain output is forecast to match last year's levels. Production is estimated at 0.7 million tons for Turkmenistan, 1.4 million for Kyrgyzstan, and 0.2 million for Tajikistan.
The outlook for the Caucasus countries is roughly the same as last year. Grain production is estimated at 0.6 million tons for Georgia, 0.3 million for Armenia, and 1.0 million for Azerbaijan. Baltic production is forecast slightly down from last year's three-year high, but projected yields are above the five-year average. Lithuania output is estimated at 2.1 million tons, Latvia at 0.9 million, and Estonia at 0.5 million.
Mark Lindeman, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 690-0143 E-mail: lindeman@fas.usda.gov
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