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April 14, 1997
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-325) April 11, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on April 14, 1997.
April 11, 1997
UNITED STATES: Paralyzing spring storms produced heavy snow and blizzard conditions across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, already inundated by significant snowmelt runoff into the river drainage basins. Beneficial rain fell over most hard red winter wheat areas in early April, but bitter cold air poured into the Great Plains breaking low temperature records and threatening jointing wheat in southern crop areas. Wet weather slowed fieldwork progress in eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, while dry weather favored planting progress in the Southeast.
SOUTH AMERICA: Below-normal rainfall continued throughout most of March, reducing soybean yields in Argentina. The dryness, however, favored corn and sunflower harvesting. In southern Brazil, below-normal March rainfall favored soybean maturation and harvesting. However, dryness late in the month stressed late-filling soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul.
EUROPE: Persistent dryness in Spain and Portugal lowered crop prospects for nonirrigated winter grains and limited topsoil moisture for spring-sown crops. Well-below-normal precipitation in March in France and the United Kingdom limited moisture for winter grain development but allowed rapid spring grain planting. Mild weather and periodic showers in Germany favored winter grain development and caused only minor planting delays. In eastern Europe, although near- to above-normal precipitation in March provided adequate moisture for winter grains which resumed spring tillering, it slowed spring grain planting, especially in southern areas.
FSU-WESTERN: Cold, wet weather during the second half of March prevented further greening of winter grains in Ukraine and kept winter grains dormant in Russia. Furthermore, the cold wet conditions halted early season fieldwork. In early April, a warming trend accomapnied several days of dryness, allowing a resumption in early season fieldwork and prompting further greening of winter grains.
NORTHWEST AFRICA: Drought continued to reduce yield prospects for winter grains in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Recent showers helped stabilize conditions for drought-stressed crops.
SOUTH AFRICA: Frequent, locally heavy showers, accompanied by below-normal temperatures, kept filling to maturing corn unfavorably wet throughout March. Patchy frost in early April likely causes no significant corn damage. Coastal showers since late March preclude early sugarcane harvests. Winter wheat planting (April to June) prospects are favorable in Orange Free State and environs due to recent wetness. More rain is needed in western crop areas of Western Cape for wheat germination.
EASTERN ASIA: Near- to above-normal March rainfall covered most of China, aiding winter grains and boosting irrigation supplies. Only portions of Manchuria and the Yangtze Valley received below normal rainfall.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Below normal March rainfall favored main-season rice harvesting in Java. Rain during late-March and early-April favored rainfed second-crop rice in northern and central Thailand, but slowed harvesting in the east. Below normal March rainfall prevailed across peninsular Malaysia and most of the Philippines, reducing moisture supplies.
AUSTRALIA: Heavy late-March showers along Queensland's coast increase moisture for sugarcane but reportedly cause local flooding and damage. The rain affects only fringe cotton and sorghum areas as dryness over the bulk of interior summer cropland favors maturation. Beneficial rain improves pre-planting moisture levels in winter grain areas of Western Australia but the southeast was dry.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
April 1997
------------1996/97------------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Estimate Change Change 1995/96
MMT MMT (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
World 581.6 0.1 0 8
Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase in the total
foreign category.
United States 62.1 NC NC 5
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 519.5 0.1 0 8
Production is estimated higher due to increases in Egypt, Lithuania, and
the European Union which more than offset a decrease in Turkey.
Egypt 5.7 0.3 6 1
Production is estimated higher due to increases in area and yield.
Lithuania 0.9 0.2 25 46
Production is estimated higher due to increases in area and yield.
European Union 99.4 0.1 0 15
Production is estimated higher due to upward adjustments in output for
Ireland, Portugal, and Sweden.
Turkey 16.0 -0.5 -3 3
Production is estimated lower due to a downward revision in yield.
COARSE GRAINS
World 896.2 8.5 1 12
Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase in the total
foreign category.
United States 267.6 NC NC 28
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 628.6 8.5 1 7
Production is estimated higher due to increases in China, Brazil, the
European Union, and Hungary. Reductions were made in output for Turkey
and Belarus.
China 135.4 5.0 4 9
Production is estimated higher due to increases in corn area and yield
based upon official total grain statistics.
Brazil 37.8 3.0 9 14
Production is estimated higher for corn due to increases in area and
yield. The main-season crop grew under generally favorable conditions; while the
area for the second crop expanded under generally favorable weather and
economic incentives.
European Union 104.5 0.5 0 18
Production is estimated higher due to small increases for Ireland,
Sweden, and Portugal.
Hungary 7.0 0.3 5 28
Production is estimated higher due to an upward revision in corn yield.
Turkey 9.9 -0.5 -5 6
Production is estimated lower due to a reduction in barley yield.
Belarus 5.1 -0.4 -7 2
Production is estimated lower for barley and rye based official
statistics indicating a reduction in total-grain output.
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
World 376.9 2 1 1
Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase in the total
foreign category.
United States 5.6 NC NC -1
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 371.3 2.0 1 1
Production is estimated higher mainly due to increases in China and
Egypt.
China 133.7 1.7 1 3
Production is estimated higher based on official statistics indicating a
larger total-grain output.
Egypt 3.1 0.6 22 3
Production is estimated higher based on an increase in area. Producers
exceeded the Government target due to the higher profitability of rice
over other crops.
Iran 1.6 -0.3 -16 3
Production is estimated lower due primary to a reduction in yield.
OILSEEDS
World 259.5 0.4 0 1
Production is estimated higher this month due primarily to an increase in
the total foreign category as well as a slight increase in the United
States.
United States 74.9 0.0 0 8
Production is estimated higher due to a slight increase in U.S. peanut
output.
Total Foreign 184.5 0.4 0 -2
Production is forecast slightly higher mainly due to a revised cottonseed
estimate in China, which more than offset lower soybean output in
Argentina.
China 40.4 .07 2 -6
Production is forecast higher based on improved cotton yield reported by
China's State Statistical Bureau.
Argentina 19.8 -0.2 -1 2
Production is estimated lower based on a reduction in soybean yield due to
dryness in southern Santa Fa and Cordoba Provinces.
PALM OIL
World 16.7 0.1 0 6
Production is forecast higher based on historical and current
adjustments for Papua New Guinea.
COTTON
------------1996/97------------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Estimate Change Change 1995/96
MBALES MBALES (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
World 88.1 1.8 2 -4
Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase in the total
foreign category.
United States 19.0 NC NC 6
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 69.2 1.8 3 -7
Production is forecast higher primarily due to increased output in China
and Pakistan.
China 19.3 1.8 10 -12
Production is forecast higher based on data from the State Statistical
Bureau.
Pakistan 7.1 0.1 1 -13
Production is estimated higher due to improved yield prospects.
WHEAT : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Mar. 11 Apr. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 524.568 538.372 581.459 581.564
Area MIL. HA 215.162 219.583 229.753 229.893
Yield MT/HA 2.438 2.452 2.531 2.530
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 63.167 59.400 62.099 62.099
Area MIL. HA 24.998 24.664 25.435 25.435
Yield MT/HA 2.527 2.408 2.441 2.441
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 461.401 478.972 519.360 519.465
Area MIL. HA 190.164 194.919 204.318 204.458
Yield MT/HA 2.426 2.457 2.542 2.541
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.300 9.200 15.500 15.500
Area MIL. HA 5.100 4.781 6.700 6.700
Yield MT/HA 2.216 1.924 2.313 2.313
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 8.903 16.975 23.500 23.500
Area MIL. HA 8.003 9.721 11.000 11.000
Yield MT/HA 1.112 1.746 2.136 2.136
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 23.122 25.037 30.500 30.500
Area MIL. HA 10.838 11.141 12.650 12.650
Yield MT/HA 2.133 2.247 2.411 2.411
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 84.541 86.161 99.305 99.444
Area MIL. HA 15.786 16.161 16.905 16.904
Yield MT/HA 5.355 5.331 5.874 5.883
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 59.892 59.320 62.950 62.970
Area MIL. HA 42.199 45.310 47.310 47.310
Yield MT/HA 1.419 1.309 1.331 1.331
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 33.962 34.970 26.470 26.220
Area MIL. HA 10.072 9.710 8.730 8.703
Yield MT/HA 3.372 3.601 3.032 3.013
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.300 102.215 109.000 109.000
Area MIL. HA 28.981 28.860 29.500 29.500
Yield MT/HA 3.426 3.542 3.695 3.695
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 59.840 65.470 62.620 62.620
Area MIL. HA 25.100 25.600 25.100 25.100
Yield MT/HA 2.384 2.557 2.495 2.495
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 15.212 17.002 16.907 16.907
Area MIL. HA 8.034 8.170 8.376 8.376
Yield MT/HA 1.893 2.081 2.019 2.019
TURKEY
Production MIL. MT 14.700 15.500 16.500 16.000
Area MIL. HA 8.600 8.550 8.450 8.450
Yield MT/HA 1.709 1.813 1.953 1.893
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 4.151 3.460 3.200 3.200
Area MIL. HA 0.965 0.870 0.800 0.800
Yield MT/HA 4.302 3.977 4.000 4.000
OTHER W. EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.805 0.946 0.921 0.921
Area MIL. HA 0.171 0.166 0.163 0.163
Yield MT/HA 4.708 5.699 5.650 5.650
==================================================================
Apr. 11, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
CORN : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Mar. 11 Apr. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 561.403 515.690 575.630 584.844
Area MIL. HA 135.446 134.364 139.586 141.135
Yield MT/HA 4.145 3.838 4.124 4.144
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 256.621 187.305 236.064 236.064
Area MIL. HA 29.496 26.303 29.602 29.602
Yield MT/HA 8.700 7.121 7.975 7.975
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 304.782 328.385 339.566 348.780
Area MIL. HA 105.950 108.061 109.984 111.533
Yield MT/HA 2.877 3.039 3.087 3.127
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.360 11.100 14.500 14.500
Area MIL. HA 2.550 2.700 3.300 3.300
Yield MT/HA 4.455 4.111 4.394 4.394
SOUTH AFRICA
Production MIL. MT 4.845 10.200 8.500 8.500
Area MIL. HA 2.952 3.300 3.400 3.400
Yield MT/HA 1.641 3.091 2.500 2.500
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 3.800 3.700 4.000 4.000
Area MIL. HA 1.200 1.140 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 3.167 3.246 3.333 3.333
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 22.716 25.371 25.355 25.705
Area MIL. HA 7.068 6.949 7.080 7.033
Yield MT/HA 3.214 3.651 3.581 3.655
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 28.298 29.063 34.782 34.882
Area MIL. HA 3.717 3.727 4.105 4.155
Yield MT/HA 7.613 7.798 8.473 8.395
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 4.037 7.010 4.505 4.535
Area MIL. HA 1.864 2.465 2.097 2.097
Yield MT/HA 2.166 2.844 2.148 2.163
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 17.005 17.780 19.000 19.000
Area MIL. HA 8.022 7.800 8.200 8.200
Yield MT/HA 2.120 2.279 2.317 2.317
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.280 112.000 117.000 122.000
Area MIL. HA 21.152 22.767 23.500 24.300
Yield MT/HA 4.694 4.919 4.979 5.021
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 37.440 32.480 34.000 37.000
Area MIL. HA 14.189 13.767 14.000 14.200
Yield MT/HA 2.639 2.359 2.429 2.606
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 4.534 4.324 4.300 4.300
Area MIL. HA 2.967 2.760 2.700 2.700
Yield MT/HA 1.528 1.567 1.593 1.593
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 6.100 6.000 6.600 6.600
Area MIL. HA 3.652 3.531 3.550 3.550
Yield MT/HA 1.670 1.699 1.859 1.859
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 7.043 7.271 7.200 7.200
Area MIL. HA 0.955 1.003 1.040 1.040
Yield MT/HA 7.375 7.249 6.923 6.923
==================================================================
Apr. 11, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Mar. 11 Apr. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 137.780 124.757 133.984 133.690
Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.337 63.038 63.000
Yield MT/HA 2.215 2.034 2.125 2.122
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 64.837 64.837
Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.661 25.661
Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.527 2.527
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 69.287 65.514 69.147 68.853
Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.399 37.377 37.339
Yield MT/HA 1.844 1.800 1.850 1.844
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 12.650 12.640 13.500 13.250
Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.200 6.200
Yield MT/HA 2.219 2.114 2.177 2.137
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.700 27.000 27.000
Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 11.800 11.800
Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.164 2.288 2.288
PARAGUAY
Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.400 2.700 2.700
Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.182 2.250 2.250
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 13.000 13.000
Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 7.500 7.500
Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.733 1.733
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.550 1.550
Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.390 1.400 1.400
Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.122 1.107 1.107
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.303 0.345 0.358
Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.178 0.213 0.216
Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.702 1.620 1.657
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 1.029 0.939 1.070 1.075
Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.314 0.317
Yield MT/HA 2.923 3.227 3.408 3.391
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170
Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.860 0.860
Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.523 2.523
==================================================================
Apr. 11, 1997 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD
COTTON : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Mar. 11 Apr. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. BALES 85.520 92.174 86.337 88.122
Area MIL. HA 32.149 35.878 33.805 33.775
Yield KG/HA 579 559 556 568
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.951 18.951
Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.193 5.193
Yield KG/HA 794 602 795 795
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. BALES 65.858 74.274 67.386 69.171
Area MIL. HA 26.758 29.400 28.612 28.582
Yield KG/HA 536 550 513 527
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.500 2.500
Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.390 0.390
Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,396 1,396
CENTRAL AMERICA
Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.047 0.047
Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.013
Yield KG/HA 666 745 787 787
EGYPT
Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.600 1.600
Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387
Yield KG/HA 835 774 900 900
MEXICO
Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.150 1.150
Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300
Yield KG/HA 683 774 835 835
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 7.000 7.100
Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200
Yield KG/HA 514 586 476 483
SUDAN
Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.450 0.450
Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.230 0.230
Yield KG/HA 501 485 426 426
TURKEY
Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.911 3.650 3.650
Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.757 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,125 1,060 1,060
FSU-12
Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 6.570 6.500
Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545
Yield KG/HA 706 699 562 556
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.930 1.900 1.900
Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.960 0.900 0.900
Yield KG/HA 500 438 460 460
BRAZIL
Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.400 1.400
Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 451 345 406 406
CHINA
Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 17.500 19.300
Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.800 4.800
Yield KG/HA 784 879 794 875
INDIA
Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.649 12.500 12.500
Area MIL. HA 7.861 9.063 8.865 8.865
Yield KG/HA 300 304 307 307
==================================================================
Apr. 11, 1997 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD
RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Mar. 11 Apr. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 364.897 371.590 374.874 376.895
Area MIL. HA 147.996 148.498 148.734 148.791
Yield MT/HA 2.466 2.502 2.520 2.533
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 6.648 5.631 5.595 5.595
Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.133 1.133
Yield MT/HA 4.954 4.498 4.938 4.938
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 358.249 365.959 369.279 371.300
Area MIL. HA 146.654 147.246 147.601 147.658
Yield MT/HA 2.443 2.485 2.502 2.515
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.936 4.260 4.260
Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.162 2.230 2.230
Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.821 1.910 1.910
BURMA
Production MIL. MT 9.280 10.000 9.300 9.300
Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.700 5.700 5.700
Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.754 1.632 1.632
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.388 13.900 13.900
Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.032 9.200 9.200
Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.593 1.511 1.511
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 132.000 133.700
Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.745 30.700 30.700
Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.217 4.300 4.355
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.800 33.500 33.500
Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.390 11.600 11.600
Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.880 2.888 2.888
REP. OF KOREA
Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.320 5.320
Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.050 1.050
Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 5.067 5.067
JAPAN
Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.413 9.413
Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.977 1.977
Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.761 4.761
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 6.200 6.200
Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 3.700 3.700
Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.676 1.676
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 1.050 1.050
Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.165 0.165
Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.364 6.364
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.500 7.500
Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 4.000 4.000
Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.875 1.875
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 80.000 80.000
Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.700 42.700
Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.874 1.874
BANGLADESH
Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.500 18.500
Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.941 10.000 10.000
Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.779 1.850 1.850
==================================================================
Apr. 11, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
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