December 1996
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-321) December 12, 1996.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on January 13, 1997.
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
December 12, 1996
UNITED STATES: Inundating precipitation has soaked the Far West as a series of Pacific storms move across the western States. Recent warm weather in the southern Great Plains has allowed late cotton harvesting and late autumn growth of winter grains. Near to above normal November precipitation throughout both hard red and soft red winter wheat areas boosted moisture for crop establishment, but slowed summer crop harvesting. Wintery weather prevailed in early December throughout the East.
SOUTH AMERICA: Above normal November rainfall favored germinating to vegetative summer crops and filling winter wheat across central Argentina. In southern Brazil, early December rainfall aided germinating soybeans and ended a drying trend that began in mid-November.
EUROPE: Above-normal precipitation in November in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany provided ample moisture for winter grains but hampered late-season harvesting. Warm, dry weather through mid-November in southeastern Europe helped fieldwork. Periodic showers favored newly planted winter grains in Spain while farther east, rain in northern Italy caused planting delays.
FSU-WESTERN: Unusually mild weather favored winter grains but caused crops to enter dormancy some 4 to 5 weeks later than usual. The combination of mild weather and lack of snow cover has left crops highly vulnerable to potential winterkill.
NORTHWEST AFRICA: In Morocco, generous rains favored winter grain emergence. In Algeria and Tunisia, prolonged dryness hampered germination and caused planting delays.
SOUTH AFRICA: Frequent, widespread showers across the corn belt greatly improve prospects for corn germination and establishment, especially in western growing areas. Showers occurred less frequently in coastal sugarcane areas. In Western Cape, unusually heavy rain in mid-November threatened the quality of mature winter wheat.
SOUTH ASIA: Persistent, heavy rain causes flooding and possible crop damage over a relatively small but agriculturally significant section of India's southeastern coast. The transition from kharif to rabi rice typically occurs this time of year, and has likely been disrupted by recent events, including the powerful tropical cyclone that struck in early November. Elsewhere, seasonable dryness favors cotton, coarse grains and oilseed maturation as well as winter grain and oilseed planting.
EASTERN ASIA: Above normal November rainfall increased moisture supplies for winter grains and oilseeds across most of the North China Plain and northern Yangtze Valley.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In Java, ample November rainfall maintained favorable irrigation supplies for main-season rice. Early November rainfall slowed rice harvesting in Thailand, but seasonably dry weather later in the month aided fieldwork. Above normal November rainfall slowed rice harvesting across Vietnam and the Philippines.
AUSTRALIA: Periods of locally heavy rain in the east benefited newly planted sorghum, cotton, and sugarcane while causing some fieldwork disruptions. Unharvested winter grains may have been locally affected but fieldwork, in general, was likely complete in the wettest areas. Winter grains advanced towards maturity in the west and southeast with no major rain events.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1996/97 December 1996 CHANGE CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96 MMT MMT (PERCENT) (PERCENT) WHEAT World 579.6 +0.5 +0 +8 Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase in the total foreign category. United States 62.1 NC NC +5 Production is unchanged. Total Foreign 517.5 +0.5 +0 +8 Production is estimated higher as increases in Argentina, Canada, and Australia more than offset a decrease in Kazakstan. Argentina 15.5 +1.0 +7 +68 Production is estimated at a record due to favorable weather. The harvest has begun. Canada 30.5 +0.7 +2 +22 Production is estimated higher based on a Statistics Canada report indicating reduced area, but record yield. An unknown quantity of grain is still in the fields under snow. Australia 21.5 +0.5 +2 +27 Production is estimated higher due to an increase in yield prospects. This is the second-largest production level since 1983/84. European Union 99.0 +0.4 +0 +15 Production is estimated at a record level based on increases in yield for Denmark and Austria. Kazakstan 8.0 -2.0 -20 +23 Production is estimated lower based on harvest reports of reduced area and yield. COARSE GRAINS World 885.4 +1.8 +0 +11 Production is estimated at a record level this month due to an increase in the total foreign category. United States 267.3 NC NC +28 Production is unchanged. Total Foreign 618.1 +1.8 +0 +5 Production is forecast higher mainly due to increases in Brazil and Kazakstan. Brazil 34.8 +1.0 +3 +5 Production is estimated higher for corn as favorable weather improved yield potential. Kazakstan 3.1 +0.7 +27 +4 Production is estimated higher due to reports of increased barley area and yield. Hungary 6.7 +0.3 +5 +6 Production is estimated higher as harvest results indicate improved corn yield. Thailand 4.2 -0.2 -5 +8 Production is estimated lower due to reduced corn area and lower yield caused by excessive rainfall. RICE (MILLED BASIS) World 376.8 -1.9 -0 +2 Production is estimated lower this month due to a decline in the total foreign category. World production is still estimated to be a record. United States 5.7 NC NC +0 Production is unchanged. Total Foreign 371.1 -1.9 -1 +2 Production is forecast lower due to decreases in India, Brazil, Vietnam, and Taiwan which more than offset an increase in South Korea. India 81.0 -1.0 -1 +2 Production is estimated lower due to dryness in Orissa and repeated cyclonic activity on the eastern coast. Brazil 6.2 -0.8 -11 -9 Production is estimated lower due to reduced area. Farmers had difficulties in securing the credit necessary for planting. Vietnam 17.5 -0.3 -2 -1 Production is estimated lower due to flood damage and growers shifting to higher quality but lower yielding rice varieties. Also, data is revised back to 1992/93 based on a report from the U.S. agricultural attache in Hanoi. Taiwan 1.4 -0.1 -7 -8 Production is estimated lower due to reduced area and yield caused by drought in the spring-crop area. South Korea 5.3 +0.2 +5 +13 Production is estimated higher due to record yield. Both growing season and harvest weather were excellent. Australia 1.0 +0.1 +9 +53 Production is forecast at a record level due to an expected increase in area and yield as farmers respond to favorable economic returns and plentiful supplies of irrigation water. OILSEEDS World 255.3 -2.0 -1 -0 Production is forecast lower based primarily on reduced output in the total foreign category. There is a slight increase in the United States. United States 75.2 +0.1 +0 +9 Production is estimated slightly higher due to an increase in cottonseed output. Total Foreign 180.1 -2.1 -1 -4 Production is forecast lower primarily due to reduced estimates for China, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and the FSU. Oilseeds in the European Union were revised upward slightly. China 39.0 -1.0 -3 -10 Production is estimated lower based on reduced area for rapeseed, soybeans, and peanuts. Reduced government incentives for oilseeds and relatively low prices caused growers to shift to alternative crops, especially grains. Cottonseed output is adjusted upward due to an increase in the seed-to-lint ratio. FSU-12 8.3 -0.8 -9 -27 Production is estimated lower based on reduced yields for sunflowerseed and cottonseed. Russian sunflowerseed yield is reduced because of dry conditions in key producing areas. Cottonseed output is estimated lower based on reduced yields primarily in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. India 25.0 -0.2 -1 +1 Production is estimated lower due to heavy October rains that reduced soybean yield potential. Cottonseed output is up slightly based on harvest reports from the northern zone which benefitted from an excellent monsoon and a reduced incidence of pests. Indonesia 2.5 -0.2 -6 NC Production is forecast lower based on official government estimates of lower soybean area and yield. Government incentives favored corn production over soybeans. Pakistan 3.4 -0.1 -4 -15 Production is estimated lower based on a revised cottonseed production estimate. European Union 12.7 +0.1 +1 -4 Production is estimated higher based on harvest reports. French rapeseed and sunflowerseed are revised higher based on increased yields. In Spain, the sunflowerseed yield is estimated higher. PALM OIL World 16.4 NC NC +5 No change this month. Production is forecast at a record, up 0.7 million tons from last year. COTTON CHANGE CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96 MBALES MBALES (PERCENT) (PERCENT) World Total 85.9 -1.1 -1 -6 Production is forecast lower based on reduced output in the total foreign category which more than offset an increase in the United States. United States 18.7 +0.1 +1 +5 Production is estimated higher due to an increase in projected yield. Total Foreign 67.2 -1.2 -2 -9 Production is forecast lower this month mainly due to declines in the FSU, Pakistan, Greece, and Brazil which more than offset gains in India, Syria, and the African Franc Zone countries. FSU-12 6.6 -0.9 -12 -20 Production is forecast lower due to decreased output in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan as unfavorable weather throughout the growing season lowered yield. Pakistan 6.8 -0.3 -4 -17 Production is forecast lower due to heavy white fly, boll worm, and aphid damage which reduced yield throughout Punjab Province. This Province produces 80 to 85 percent of the crop. Greece 1.5 -0.2 -12 -27 Production is estimated lower due to heavy rains in early December and less-than-favorable harvest weather throughout the northern cotton-growing area. Brazil 1.4 -0.2 -13 -22 Production is forecast lower this month due to a decline in area caused by high production costs, difficulty securing new financing, high cost of credit, and lack of government support. Australia 2.6 -0.1 -4 +35 Production is forecast lower resulting from less-than-average rainfall during the past two months. India 12.3 +0.1 +1 -2 Production is forecast higher due to increased yield as the major cotton-producing states in the northern and central zones received excellent monsoon rains. In addition, there was a low incidence of insects and disease. African Franc Zone 3.6 +0.1 +3 +16 Production is forecast higher due to increased area and yield resulting from favorable growing and harvesting conditions. Syria 1.1 +0.1 +12 +15 Production is forecast higher due to increased area and improved yield resulting from favorable growing and harvesting conditions. WHEAT : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 524.750 536.877 579.062 579.589 Area MIL. HA 215.191 219.738 230.707 229.998 Yield MT/HA 2.439 2.443 2.510 2.520 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 63.167 59.400 62.099 62.099 Area MIL. HA 24.998 24.664 25.435 25.435 Yield MT/HA 2.527 2.408 2.441 2.441 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 461.583 477.477 516.963 517.490 Area MIL. HA 190.193 195.074 205.272 204.563 Yield MT/HA 2.427 2.448 2.518 2.530 ARGENTINA Production MIL. MT 11.300 9.200 14.500 15.500 Area MIL. HA 5.100 4.781 6.600 6.600 Yield MT/HA 2.216 1.924 2.197 2.348 AUSTRALIA Production MIL. MT 8.903 16.975 21.000 21.500 Area MIL. HA 8.003 9.721 11.100 11.100 Yield MT/HA 1.112 1.746 1.892 1.937 CANADA Production MIL. MT 23.122 25.037 29.800 30.500 Area MIL. HA 10.838 11.253 13.000 12.650 Yield MT/HA 2.133 2.225 2.292 2.411 EU-15 Production MIL. MT 84.541 86.157 98.650 99.020 Area MIL. HA 15.786 16.127 17.075 17.060 Yield MT/HA 5.355 5.342 5.777 5.804 FSU-12 Production MIL. MT 59.904 58.923 66.160 64.160 Area MIL. HA 42.218 45.310 47.700 47.300 Yield MT/HA 1.419 1.300 1.387 1.356 EASTERN EUROPE Production MIL. MT 33.962 34.990 26.360 26.360 Area MIL. HA 10.072 9.710 8.730 8.730 Yield MT/HA 3.372 3.604 3.019 3.019 CHINA Production MIL. MT 99.300 102.215 109.000 109.000 Area MIL. HA 28.981 28.860 29.500 29.500 Yield MT/HA 3.426 3.542 3.695 3.695 INDIA Production MIL. MT 59.840 65.470 62.620 62.620 Area MIL. HA 25.100 25.600 25.100 25.100 Yield MT/HA 2.384 2.557 2.495 2.495 PAKISTAN Production MIL. MT 15.212 17.002 17.000 16.907 Area MIL. HA 8.034 8.170 8.320 8.376 Yield MT/HA 1.893 2.081 2.043 2.019 TURKEY Production MIL. MT 14.700 15.500 16.500 16.500 Area MIL. HA 8.600 8.550 8.450 8.450 Yield MT/HA 1.709 1.813 1.953 1.953 MEXICO Production MIL. MT 4.151 3.460 3.200 3.200 Area MIL. HA 0.965 0.870 0.800 0.800 Yield MT/HA 4.302 3.977 4.000 4.000 OTHER W. EUROPE Production MIL. MT 0.805 0.943 0.975 0.975 Area MIL. HA 0.171 0.173 0.173 0.173 Yield MT/HA 4.708 5.451 5.636 5.636 ================================================================== Dec. 12,1996 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD CORN : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 560.020 513.963 571.174 572.614 Area MIL. HA 134.326 133.514 139.478 139.438 Yield MT/HA 4.169 3.850 4.095 4.107 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 256.621 187.305 235.349 235.349 Area MIL. HA 29.496 26.303 29.651 29.651 Yield MT/HA 8.700 7.121 7.937 7.937 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 303.399 326.658 335.825 337.265 Area MIL. HA 104.830 107.211 109.827 109.787 Yield MT/HA 2.894 3.047 3.058 3.072 ARGENTINA Production MIL. MT 10.900 10.660 13.500 13.500 Area MIL. HA 2.500 2.600 3.200 3.200 Yield MT/HA 4.360 4.100 4.219 4.219 SOUTH AFRICA Production MIL. MT 4.845 10.200 9.500 9.500 Area MIL. HA 2.952 3.300 3.400 3.400 Yield MT/HA 1.641 3.091 2.794 2.794 THAILAND Production MIL. MT 3.800 3.700 4.200 4.000 Area MIL. HA 1.200 1.140 1.250 1.200 Yield MT/HA 3.167 3.246 3.360 3.333 EASTERN EUROPE Production MIL. MT 22.716 25.371 24.670 24.970 Area MIL. HA 7.068 6.949 7.085 7.085 Yield MT/HA 3.214 3.651 3.482 3.524 EU-15 Production MIL. MT 28.298 28.952 33.890 34.030 Area MIL. HA 3.717 3.690 4.091 4.111 Yield MT/HA 7.613 7.846 8.284 8.278 FSU-12 Production MIL. MT 4.032 6.990 4.085 4.085 Area MIL. HA 1.880 2.465 2.097 2.097 Yield MT/HA 2.145 2.836 1.948 1.948 MEXICO Production MIL. MT 17.005 16.000 17.500 17.500 Area MIL. HA 8.022 7.000 7.500 7.500 Yield MT/HA 2.120 2.286 2.333 2.333 CHINA Production MIL. MT 99.280 112.000 117.000 117.000 Area MIL. HA 21.152 22.767 23.500 23.500 Yield MT/HA 4.694 4.919 4.979 4.979 BRAZIL Production MIL. MT 37.440 32.480 33.000 34.000 Area MIL. HA 14.189 13.767 14.000 14.000 Yield MT/HA 2.639 2.359 2.357 2.429 PHILIPPINES Production MIL. MT 4.534 4.300 4.300 4.300 Area MIL. HA 2.967 2.760 2.700 2.700 Yield MT/HA 1.528 1.558 1.593 1.593 INDONESIA Production MIL. MT 5.500 6.200 6.000 6.000 Area MIL. HA 3.109 3.652 3.500 3.500 Yield MT/HA 1.769 1.698 1.714 1.714 CANADA Production MIL. MT 7.043 7.271 7.000 7.200 Area MIL. HA 0.955 1.003 1.050 1.040 Yield MT/HA 7.375 7.249 6.667 6.923 ================================================================== Dec. 12,1996 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 137.783 124.387 133.731 132.581 Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.351 63.583 63.263 Yield MT/HA 2.215 2.027 2.103 2.096 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 65.388 65.388 Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.673 25.673 Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.547 2.547 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 69.290 65.144 68.343 67.193 Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.413 37.910 37.590 Yield MT/HA 1.844 1.789 1.803 1.788 ARGENTINA Production MIL. MT 12.650 12.640 13.000 13.000 Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.000 6.000 Yield MT/HA 2.219 2.114 2.167 2.167 BRAZIL Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.400 26.000 26.000 Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 12.200 12.200 Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.137 2.131 2.131 PARAGUAY Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.300 2.500 2.500 Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200 Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.091 2.083 2.083 CHINA Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 13.300 12.500 Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 8.000 7.500 Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.663 1.667 INDONESIA Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.700 1.550 Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.390 1.500 1.400 Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.122 1.133 1.107 EASTERN EUROPE Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.303 0.352 0.352 Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.178 0.214 0.214 Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.702 1.645 1.645 EU-15 Production MIL. MT 1.032 0.939 1.090 1.090 Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.329 0.329 Yield MT/HA 2.932 3.227 3.313 3.313 CANADA Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170 Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.880 0.860 Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.466 2.523 ================================================================== Dec. 12,1996 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD COTTON : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. BALES 85.520 91.822 87.018 85.934 Area MIL. HA 32.149 35.429 33.232 33.324 Yield KG/HA 579 564 570 561 UNITED STATES Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.594 18.738 Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.172 5.172 Yield KG/HA 794 602 783 789 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. BALES 65.858 73.922 68.424 67.196 Area MIL. HA 26.758 28.951 28.060 28.152 Yield KG/HA 536 556 531 520 AUSTRALIA Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.700 2.600 Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.380 0.390 Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,547 1,452 CENTRAL AMERICA Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.047 0.047 Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.013 Yield KG/HA 666 745 787 787 EGYPT Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.600 1.680 Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387 Yield KG/HA 835 774 900 945 MEXICO Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.100 1.100 Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300 Yield KG/HA 683 774 798 798 PAKISTAN Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 7.100 6.800 Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200 Yield KG/HA 514 586 483 463 SUDAN Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.550 0.550 Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.240 0.240 Yield KG/HA 501 485 499 499 TURKEY Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.845 3.500 3.500 Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.741 0.714 0.714 Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,130 1,067 1,067 FSU-12 Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 7.450 6.570 Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545 Yield KG/HA 706 699 637 562 ARGENTINA Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.800 1.950 1.950 Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.940 0.900 0.900 Yield KG/HA 500 417 472 472 BRAZIL Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.600 1.400 Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.880 0.750 Yield KG/HA 451 345 396 406 CHINA Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 17.500 17.500 Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.600 4.800 Yield KG/HA 784 879 828 794 INDIA Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.493 12.200 12.300 Area MIL. HA 7.861 8.650 8.500 8.500 Yield KG/HA 300 314 313 315 ================================================================== Dec. 12,1996 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 365.259 370.659 378.654 376.774 Area MIL. HA 148.090 148.547 148.699 148.487 Yield MT/HA 2.466 2.495 2.546 2.537 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 6.549 5.678 5.682 5.682 Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.177 1.177 Yield MT/HA 4.880 4.535 4.828 4.828 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 358.710 364.981 372.972 371.092 Area MIL. HA 146.748 147.295 147.522 147.310 Yield MT/HA 2.444 2.478 2.528 2.519 PAKISTAN Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.800 3.800 3.800 Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.090 2.000 2.000 Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.818 1.900 1.900 BURMA Production MIL. MT 9.280 10.000 10.440 10.440 Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.700 5.700 5.700 Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.754 1.832 1.832 THAILAND Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.400 14.200 14.200 Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.250 9.200 9.200 Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.557 1.543 1.543 CHINA Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 132.000 132.000 Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.700 30.700 30.700 Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.223 4.300 4.300 INDONESIA Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.700 33.500 33.500 Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.400 11.600 11.600 Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.868 2.888 2.888 REP. OF KOREA Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.080 5.320 Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.060 1.050 Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 4.792 5.067 JAPAN Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.400 9.400 Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.967 1.967 Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.779 4.779 BRAZIL Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 7.000 6.200 Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 4.200 3.700 Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.667 1.676 AUSTRALIA Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 0.950 1.040 Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.155 0.165 Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.129 6.303 PHILIPPINES Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.300 7.300 Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 3.950 3.950 Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.848 1.848 INDIA Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 82.000 81.000 Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.500 42.500 Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.929 1.906 BANGLADESH Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.000 18.000 Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.950 9.950 9.950 Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.778 1.809 1.809 ================================================================== Dec. 12,1996 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD EARLY RELEASE BULLETIN WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION World green coffee production in 1996/97 is forecast at 100.9 million 60-kilogram bags, up 1.8 million bags from the June forecast, but shy of the record 103.7 million bag crop harvested in 1991/92. The 1996/97 forecast is up 12 percent from the revised estimate of 89.9 million bags harvested last season. The increase is principally the result of a 10.2 million bag increase in Brazilian production. Brazil's 1996/97 coffee estimate of 27.0 million bags is up 61 percent from last year's frost and drought-affected crop, but is 2 percent less than the June forecast. Colombia's 1996/97 coffee crop, forecast at 12.5 million bags, is down 3 percent from last year, down 4 percent from the June forecast, and well below the record 18.0 million bags harvested in 1991/92. Indonesia's coffee production for 1996/97 has been revised upward, to 7.5 million bags, from the preliminary June forecast of 6.5 million. The current forecast is up 21 percent from last season's drought-reduced crop. _______________________________________ Franklin Hokana, Tropical Products Chairperson Phone: (202) 720-0875 E-mail: Hokana@fas.usda.gov WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION (1,000 60-Kg Bags) 1/ Region and Country 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 Dec 2/ NORTH AMERICA Costa Rica 2,475 2,492 2,595 2,500 Cuba 365 400 250 250 Dominican Repub 545 650 790 730 El Salvador 2,361 2,314 2,325 2,220 Guatemala 3,078 3,500 3,827 3,927 Haiti 430 440 440 440 Honduras 2,060 2,295 2,254 2,500 Jamaica 25 44 45 45 Mexico 4,200 4,030 5,400 5,400 Nicaragua 695 685 920 800 Panama 202 136 200 200 Trinidad and To 15 15 10 15 United States 3 228 238 241 209 TOTAL 16,679 17,239 19,297 19,236 SOUTH AMERICA Bolivia 80 95 120 140 Brazil 28,500 28,000 16,800 27,000 Colombia 11,400 13,000 12,900 12,500 Ecuador 2,150 2,550 1,900 1,700 Guyana 5 5 5 5 Paraguay 70 50 70 60 Peru 1,022 1,453 1,850 1,450 Venezuela 920 920 1,260 1,100 TOTAL 44,147 46,073 34,905 43,955 AFRICA Angola 30 70 90 90 Benin 35 35 35 35 Burundi 375 600 400 500 Cameroon 1,250 1,000 1,200 1,000 Central African 150 250 300 350 Congo 25 25 25 25 Cote d'Ivoire 2,700 3,733 2,900 4,000 Equatorial Guin 15 15 15 15 Ethiopia 3,700 3,800 3,800 3,900 Gabon 25 25 25 25 Ghana 25 30 30 30 Guinea 100 100 100 100 Kenya 1,230 1,584 1,580 1,422 Liberia 10 10 10 10 Madagascar 700 1,000 1,100 1,100 Malawi 125 70 80 80 Nigeria 42 50 55 55 Rwanda 487 80 350 300 Sierra Leone 80 70 70 70 Tanzania 567 820 850 700 Togo 185 250 100 250 Uganda 2,700 3,100 4,200 3,700 Zaire 900 1,300 1,000 1,000 Zambia 26 23 27 30 Zimbabwe 65 155 75 200 TOTAL 15,547 18,195 18,417 18,987 ASIA India 3,465 3,060 3,700 3,200 Indonesia 7,400 6,400 6,000 7,500 Laos 130 100 150 150 Malaysia 150 153 158 160 Philippines 875 878 850 905 Sri Lanka 60 60 60 60 Thailand 1,200 1,400 1,300 1,400 Vietnam 2,500 3,500 4,000 4,300 Yemen 65 65 65 65 TOTAL 15,845 15,616 16,283 17,740 OCEANIA New Caledonia 5 5 5 5 Papua New Guine 1,080 1,050 1,000 1,000 TOTAL 1,085 1,055 1,005 1,005 WORLD TOTAL 93,303 98,178 89,907 100,923 1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds. 2/ Coffee marketing year begins October in some countries and April or July in others. 3/ Includes Puerto Rico and Hawaii. NOTE: Production estimates for some countries include cross-border movements. December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assesment, FAS, USDA
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