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November 1996
This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data;numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-320) November 12, 1996.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on December 13, 1996.
WEATHER BRIEFS
ARGENTINA: MOISTURE FAVORABLE IN ALL GROWING AREAS
In September 1996, below-normal rainfall in central Argentina reduced soil moisture for vegetative-to-reproductive wheat. September rainfall was normal to above-normal in Buenos Aires, favoring wheat. During the first week of October 1996, rain fell in most of Argentina's crop areas and boosted topsoil moisture for summer crop planting and winter wheat development. Light-to-moderate rain fell across Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires. Heavier rain favored winter wheat in central and southern Buenos Aires. Historically, Buenos Aires accounts for 60 to 65 percent of Argentina's wheat production, while Cordoba and Santa Fe, combined, account for about 25 percent. Also during the first week of October, heavy rain boosted moisture supplies for cotton planting in northern Argentina, which had been too dry. Moderate rainfall continued in southern Santa Fe, southern Cordoba, La Pampa, and northern Buenos Aires during the week of October 6 - 12. This rain boosted soil moisture for corn and sunflower planting and favored winter wheat which was in the reproductive and filling stages. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall continued in northern Argentina. During October 13 - 19, drier weather favored summer crop planting. Late-week, scattered rain in southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires aided filling wheat and kept topsoils moist for summer crop sowing. Also, late-week rain kept topsoils moist for cotton planting in northern Argentina. During the week of October 20 - 26, scattered showers benefited winter wheat and summer crops in southern and central Argentina but slowed cotton planting in the north. On October 21 - 22, freezing temperatures damaged reproductive winter wheat in southern and central Buenos Aires province. Rain covered most major growing areas during October 27 through November 5. This rain boosted water supplies for cotton and sunflowers in northern Argentina, provided continued moisture for wheat in central and southern Argentina, and benefited corn and sunflower establishment. As of November 10, soil moisture across all major summer crop areas was favorable for the establishment of planted crops.
SOUTH AFRICA: EARLY SEASON MOISTURE IS FAVORABLE
In South Africa, rainfall during September 1996 exceeded 25 millimeters only in central and eastern Orange Free State, Kwazulu-Natal, and western and southern Cape Province. During October 13 - 19, eastern Orange Free State and southeast Transvaal received 10 to 25 millimeters. These conditions favored winter wheat harvesting and field preparations prior to corn planting. From October 20 through November 2, heavy rain soaked sections of the eastern corn belt, increasing moisture reserves for crop germination and establishment. In the western corn belt, mostly dry weather persisted, limiting planting opportunities as soil were dry due to recent heat and lack of rain. Elsewhere, during October 20 - 26, moderate-to-heavy rain covered the southern and eastern winter wheat regions of Western Cape Province, raising concern for unharvested crops. Drier weather prevailed during October 27 through November 2, allowing the mature wheat to dry. Drier weather covered the corn belt during November 3 - 11. Isolated showers brought only light rainfall to the major corn growing areas. This favored field work in the east. However, western corn belt farmers are still waiting for increased soil moisture for planting.
GREECE: HEAVY RAINFALL INTERFERES WITH HARVESTING
Rainfall during September 1996 was above normal in Greece, increasing reservoir levels but interfering with summer crop harvesting and winter grain planting. This wet pattern continued and worsened in October. During the first week of October, clear weather allowed for field work. The following week, October 6 - 12, moderate rain fell across portions of northern and western Greece. However, during the week of October 13 - 19, heavy rain (25 to 100 millimeters) fell across much of Greece. This rainfall interrupted cotton harvesting and caused some concern for cotton quality. Only light and widely scattered rain fell across Greece during the remainder of October. This drier weather improved conditions for summer crop harvesting and winter grain planting.
PRODUCTION BRIEFS
ARGENTINA: WHEAT AREA RECEIVING FERTILIZER APPLICATIONS INCREASES
According to Argentina's Agriculture Secretariat, farmers used fertilizer on approximately 65 percent of their 1996/97 wheat crop, compared to 51 percent last season. Farmers sowed 6.8 million hectares this year versus an estimated 4.5 million harvested in 1995/96. USDA is estimating harvested area at 6.6 million hectares, up 2.1 million from last year. If the percent of fertilizer use is accurate, an additional 1.9 million hectares of wheat area received fertilizer this season. With wheat planting complete, USDA estimates yield at 2.20 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from the 5-year average. The record yield was established in 1992/93 at 2.33 tons per hectare. Early-season planting difficulties due to dry weather mitigated yield potential. The 1996/97 wheat crop is estimated at 14.5 million tons.
AUSTRALIA: WHEAT PRODUCTION REVISED HIGHER
According to an October 22 crop report released by Australia's Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE), wheat production for 1996/97 is estimated at 20.9 million tons, up 2.5 million or 15 percent from last season. The increase reflects an estimated 13-percent rise in plantings as well as a higher yield. ABARE reported that, while rains in September and October assisted crop development in large parts of Australia, they also led to some damage in Queensland for crops nearing harvest. In New South Wales, conditions were reported to be excellent. If favorable weather continues, ABARE estimates that the crop will be the second highest achieved by that state. In Victoria, wheat plantings were delayed, but good rains over the season have resulted in above-average yield expectations. In South Australia, delayed plantings of four to six weeks have been offset by a favorable growing season. Above-average rainfall throughout most of the state provided enough subsoil moisture to finish the crop. In Western Australia, despite earlier concerns of waterlogging in the central cropping regions, drier weather in August, and timely rains in September supported the crop.
FRANCE: DRIED PRUNE PACK FORECAST AT RECORD LEVEL
Dried prune production in France for 1996/97 is forecast at 65,000 tons (packed-weight basis), up 7 percent from the revised 1995/96 estimate of 61,000, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Paris. The upturn reflects a slight increase in harvested area and favorable weather during most of the growing season. Two consecutively large crops in 1995/96 and 1996/97 are expected to have a negative affect on prices. Because of this, producers have agreed to fund a 16,000-ton stock of prunes which will be kept off the market for a period of one year. Each farmer's financial contribution for managing this stock will be 12 to 15 percent of their 1996/97 harvest.
FRANCE: PLUM AREA AND DRIED PRUNE PRODUCTION
(Hectares/Metric tons)
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1/
Area Planted 13,444 13,560 13,709 13,887 14,180
Area Harvested 11,178 11,473 11,678 11,816 12,055
Production 50,971 37,147 43,098 61,000 65,000
1/ Forecast.
MEXICO: TOMATO PRODUCTION FORECAST HIGHER
Mexico's production of tomatoes in 1997 (includes tomatoes harvested in late-1996) is forecast up slightly from last season, to 1.92 million tons, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Mexico City. The upturn is based on a 41-percent increase in processing tomato production, to 245,000 tons. Output of tomatoes for fresh consumption is forecast at 1.67 million tons, down 3 percent from 1996.
The area planted to tomatoes for harvest in 1997 is forecast at 72,500 hectares, down from 73,000 hectares in 1996. Of the total area, 66,000 hectares are planted to tomatoes for fresh consumption and 6,500 hectares to processing tomatoes. For the 1996 crop, 7,000 hectares were planted to processing tomatoes, although only 3,800 hectares were harvested for processing because of strong demand from the fresh market.
The combined impact of high production costs and rising yields--due to the increased use of extended shelf life varieties, drip irrigation, and plastic mulch--contributed to the lack of area expansion. Additionally, an increase in the number of greenhouses in Sinaloa State has helped to boost yields. The drought problem in Sinaloa is over and preliminary assessments indicate that reservoirs have enough water to sustain winter crop production and possibly next year's summer crops.
The average yield for processing tomatoes in 1997 is forecast at 45.0 tons per hectare. Yields for fresh market tomatoes are normally about 35.0 to 45.0 tons per hectare in Baja California and Sinaloa, the principal states producing for export to the United States. These states have widespread programs for pest and virus control, in addition to the highest use of inputs. In other areas of Mexico which produce mainly for the domestic market, yields average about 15.0 tons per hectare.
SERBIA/MONTENEGRO: RECOVERY IN DRIED PRUNE PACK FORECAST
Dried prune production in Serbia/Montenegro for 1996/97 is forecast at 7,000 tons (packed- weight basis), up from 2,750 tons last year, according to the U.S. agricultural counselor reporting from Sofia. The recovery in prune production is attributed to improved export prospects due to the suspension of the United Nations sanctions. A 30-percent larger 1996/97 fresh plum crop also contributed to the projected increase in output.
UNITED STATES: CROP CONDITION AND PROGRESS
Low temperatures on October 3 and 4 in parts of the northern Corn Belt stopped crop growth and accelerated dry down of row crops. The moisture content of corn was higher than normal for early-October across most of the Midwest. Row-crop producers with mature fields welcomed the low temperatures, but some growers quickly harvested immature corn for silage. Cool, wet weather in the Southeast slowed harvest activity and fieldwork. Winter wheat started the month more than one-quarter emerged, slightly behind normal. Wheat growers in the central Great Plains were concerned that delays to seeding would leave plants with insufficient growth before entering winter dormancy. Rains associated with Tropical Storm Josephine slowed harvest activity in the Southeastern and Gulf Coast States. Cotton condition continued to decline in the Southeast due to high winds and heavy rain. Cool weather slowed defoliation of late-planted cotton fields in the southern Great Plains. The soybean harvest started the month behind schedule across the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys.
By mid-month, wet weather in the mid-Atlantic saturated fields and delayed small-grain seeding and harvest activity. The high moisture content slowed corn harvest activity in the Corn Belt, where frost caused little damage to mature row crops and aided the dry-down for row crops. Wet weather delayed some small-grain seeding in the Dakotas, where some fields remained unplanted due to the lateness of the season. Strong winds and heavy rains associated with Hurricane Lili delayed fieldwork in Florida's vegetable region and scarred some fruit. Rains over the western Corn Belt interrupted harvest activity, but provided much-needed moisture for small-grain seeding. In the Central States, row-crops matured faster than producers could harvest them.
Later in the month, Midwestern farmers who completed their soybean harvest were delayed from harvesting the corn crop by the high moisture content. Harvest activity lagged more than one week behind normal in the central Corn Belt, where many producers waited for a hard freeze to lower the moisture content of the grain. Widespread rains over the western Corn Belt slowed the row-crop harvest. Late-October brought a snowstorm to the central Great Plains and Mountain States that left fields too wet for harvest activity. Drier weather in the Southeast allowed harvest activity to advance. Thunderstorms in the Delta and Gulf Coast regions delayed harvest activity and threatened cotton fields where bolls were open. A late-month frost in the Texas High Plains reduced the need for cotton defoliation. Frost in the Tennessee Valley ended the growing season for soybeans and helped the plants shed leaves.
Powerful winds and rains on October 29-30 delayed harvest activity and damaged some row crops in the western Corn Belt. A widespread freeze at the end of October in the Central States aided the dry down of high-moisture grain. Wet weather over the upper Delta slowed harvest activity, but brought much-needed moisture to recently plated small-grain fields. Winter wheat planting finished the month slightly ahead of the average. At month's end, high average corn moisture levels slowed the harvest in the Midwest, where strong winds toppled some stalks that were damaged by corn borers.
UNITED STATES: CROP PROGRESS
The U.S. National Agriculture Statistics Service released the following crop progress and crop condition report for the week ending November 10, 1996.
U.S. CROP PROGRESS
1996 1995 AVERAGE
WINTER WHEAT: % emerged 89 83 83
SOYBEANS: % harvested 89 94 92
CORN: % harvested 79 92 81
COTTON: % harvested 69 70 70
SORGHUM: % harvested 85 94 88
PEANUTS: % harvested 94 91 90
FORMER SOVIET UNION: WEATHER AND CROP DEVELOPMENTS
In spring grain areas east of the Ural mountains, persistent wetness in October delayed harvesting. Bitter cold and snow in late-October brought harvest activities to a halt, leaving a portion of the crop unharvested.
In crop areas west of the Ural mountains, the weather during October in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus favored corn, sunflower, sugarbeet, and potato harvesting and winter grain planting. There was a period of beneficial rain from October 20-26 in Ukraine and southern Russia, which provided topsoil moisture for winter grain development. Near-to-above normal temperatures in October over Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics allowed sufficient vegetative growth in winter grains prior to dormancy. By late-October, winter grains in northern Russia were in or entering dormancy with sufficient hardening. Winter grains in the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, and southern Russia continued to develop prior to dormancy.
Since early-November, unseasonably warm, dry weather in Ukraine and southern Russia enabled late-harvest activities to advance toward completion. Winter grains continued to add vegetative growth in southern Russia and Ukraine. Winter grains in northern Russia continued to ease into dormancy.
FEATURE COMMODITY ARTICLES
WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION
The 1996/97 estimate of world centrifugal sugar production has been revised to an all-time high of 125.0 million tons (raw value), 2 percent above the previous record of 122.5 million in 1995/96 and 3 percent above the September 1996 (WAP 09-96) forecast of 121.4 million. Sugar produced from sugarcane is estimated at 88.6 million tons, up 2 percent from a ago. Sugar processed from sugarbeets is estimated at 36.4 million tons, is up 1 percent from last season.
India: In India, the world's largest producer, the 17.0 million ton forecast is 7 percent below the 18.3 million ton record set last season. The sugarcane area to be harvested for centrifugal sugar is forecast at 2.3 million hectares, a decline of 6 percent from 1995/96. The cane yield for 1996/97 is expected to decline 5 percent as a result of lower inputs and reduced prices for sugarcane. Large sugar stocks have lowered sugar prices resulting in delayed payments to growers. India's sugar production estimates include khandsari, a centrifugal sugar produced and consumed domestically, which is estimated at 620,000 tons for both 1995/96 and 1996/97.
European Community (EU): Sugar production during the 1996/97 season is estimated up 1 percent from a year ago, to 17.2 million tons, primarily because of a 3-percent increase in the recovery rate and rains in northern Europe and Spain during the first two weeks of September that proved highly beneficial to the beet crops. Harvested area for 1996/97 is estimated at 2.0 million hectares, down 3 percent from last season.
The EU has had a common market organization for sugar since July 1, 1968. It is currently governed by Council Regulation 1785/81. Council Regulation 1101/95 extended the regime through the 2000/01 season and made provisions for compliance with Uruguay Round commitments. The EU is and will likely remain among the top producers, consumers, and exporters of sugar in the world. The EU's sugar production policy is closely tied to its political commitments to aid the economies of its former colonies and territories as well as the profitability of maintaining beet production and sugar refining capacity within its borders.
Sugar production during 1996/97 in Germany, the largest sugar producing country in the EU, is estimated at 4.6 million tons, up 10 percent from last season. The upturn reflects a 6-percent increase in sugar recovery due to high sucrose levels and a 4-percent increase in the beet yield.
In France, sugar production is estimated down 4 percent, to 4.4 million tons. Sugarbeet area is 2 percent lower and yield per hectare dropped 3 percent.
Brazil: Sugar production for 1996/97 is estimated at 14.5 million tons, up 6 percent from last season because of a 3-percent increase in area and a 2-percent increase in both the cane yield and recovery rate. The shift from alcohol to sugar production slowed this season. Several of the largest millers are postponing planned investments in area expansion and delaying crop renovation (ratooning) because of the industry's poor financial situation.
China: Sugar production for 1996/97 is estimated up 4 percent, to 7.0 million tons, mainly due to a 4-percent expansion in cane area, to 1.1 million hectares. The harvested area for sugarbeets in 1996/97 is estimated at 685,000 hectares, down marginally from last year.
United States: Sugar production for 1996/97 is estimated at 6.5 million metric tons, down 3 percent from last season's 6.7 million ton outturn. Mainland sugar output from sugarcane is estimated at 2.5 million tons, down 7 percent from last season. Freeze damage to Louisiana sugarcane last winter and irrigation water shortages in Texas have cause a 5-percent decrease in sugarcane area and a 3-percent decline in yield. Sugar processed from sugarbeets is estimated at 3.6 million tons, approximately the same as last year.
Thailand: Sugar production for the 1996/97 season is estimated at an all-time high of 6.5 million tons, up 3 percent from the previous record of 6.3 million tons set in 1995/96 due to favorable weather and continued area expansion. The 1996/97 harvest is expected to yield a record-breaking sugarcane crop of 59.0 million tons, up 2 percent from last season. Sugar mills continue to provide advance payments to cane producers who switch from other crops into cane.
Australia: Sugar output for 1996/97 is estimated at a record 5.6 million tons, up 9 percent from last season. Most of the increase can be attributed to a 4-percent increase in harvested area and a similar increase in yield. To cope with the large harvest, the 1996/97 crushing season started early this year with some mills beginning crushing operations during the first week of June.
Cuba: Cuba's sugar production in 1996/97 is estimated at 4.6 million tons, up 3 percent from last season. Prospects for the season appeared significantly better until the cane crop was damaged by Hurricane Lili. Harvested area for 1996/97 is estimated at 1.3 million hectares, unchanged from last year. However, the recovery rate is expected to improve.
Ukraine: Sugar production for the 1996/97 season is forecast at 3.0 million tons, down 21 percent from a year ago. The downturn reflects a 13-percent drop in beet production, to 25.5 million tons, a 4-percent reduction in harvested area, and a 10-percent cut in the per hectare beet yield due to inclement weather and input shortages.
Turkey: Sugar production for 1996/97 is estimated at 2.0 million, up 45 percent from last season's poor outturn of nearly 1.4 million. The main reason for the upturn is a 34-percent increase in the harvested area estimate for 1996/97, a 12-percent increase in the recovery rate, and favorable weather.
Russia: Sugar production in Russia for the 1996/97 season is estimated at 1.9 million tons, down 8 percent from a year ago. For the 1996/97 season, 1.1 million hectares were sown to sugarbeets, up slightly from last year. The sugarbeet crop is estimated at only 16.5 million tons, down 14 percent from 1995/96 due to sharply lower yields.
____________________________
Franklin Hokana, Chairperson
Sugar and Tropical Products
Phone: (202) 720-0875
E-mail: hokana@fas.usda.gov
WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION 1/
(1,000 Metric tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/
NORTH AMERICA
Canada 113 171 151 140
Mexico 3,780 4,556 4,660 4,600
United States 3/ 4/ 6,945 7,191 6,686 6,468
Total 10,838 11,918 11,497 11,208
SOUTH AMERICA
Argentina 1,080 1,180 1,590 1,320
Bolivia 281 270 265 265
Brazil 9,930 12,500 13,700 14,500
Chile 490 505 598 520
Colombia 1,801 2,071 2,002 2,030
Ecuador 362 339 413 415
Guyana 257 254 280 300
Paraguay 95 95 126 110
Peru 566 641 641 700
Surinam 1 1 1 1
Uruguay 32 25 25 25
Venezuela 510 530 456 545
Total 15,405 18,411 20,097 20,731
CENTRAL AMERICA
Belize 105 105 110 110
Costa Rica 322 331 340 350
El Salvador 319 312 317 340
Guatemala 1,118 1,333 1,334 1,440
Honduras 195 214 235 265
Nicaragua 185 250 295 300
Panama 142 135 140 150
Total 2,386 2,680 2,771 2,955
CARIBBEAN
Barbados 51 40 60 65
Cuba 4,000 3,300 4,450 4,600
Dominican Republic 580 482 563 590
Guadeloupe 68 56 53 55
Haiti 0 0 10 10
Jamaica 220 212 227 230
Martinique 5 7 5 5
St. Kitts & Nevis 20 20 20 20
Trinidad & Tobago 127 117 118 145
Total 5,071 4,234 5,506 5,720
EUROPEAN UNION
Austria 519 438 480 460
Belgium-Luxembourg 1,134 945 964 1,000
Denmark 566 487 470 480
Finland 154 167 167 170
France 5/ 4,725 4,363 4,601 4,400
Germany 4,736 3,991 4,150 4,550
Greece 308 277 314 280
Ireland 192 232 242 240
Italy 1,541 1,622 1,621 1,460
Netherlands 1,232 1,050 1,085 1,100
Portugal 4 4 3 4
Spain 1,344 1,214 1,195 1,200
Sweden 394 370 383 400
United Kingdom 1,561 1,373 1,330 1,500
Total 18,410 16,533 17,005 17,244
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE
Switzerland 150 128 135 180
EASTERN EUROPE
Albania 10 10 10 10
Bulgaria 10 13 16 8
Czech Republic 576 375 477 555
Hungary 273 425 484 500
Poland 2,170 1,492 1,714 2,200
Romania 135 212 207 220
Slovakia 151 130 145 180
Former Yugoslavia 7/ 200 340 250 400
Total 3,525 2,997 3,303 4,073
FSU-12
Belarus 130 107 152 140
Kazakstan 107 60 50 65
Kyrgyzstan 20 11 15 15
Moldova 200 160 190 190
Russia 2,700 1,655 2,060 1,900
Ukraine 4,188 3,600 3,800 3,000
Total 7,345 5,593 6,267 5,310
BALTIC STATES
Latvia 35 30 35 35
Lithuania 75 50 80 70
Total 110 80 115 105
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Angola 35 35 35 35
Benin 5 5 5 5
Burkina 20 20 20 20
Burundi 15 15 15 15
Cameroon 60 60 60 60
Chad 20 20 20 20
Congo (Brazzaville) 35 30 35 35
Cote d' Ivoire 170 150 130 150
Ethiopia 200 200 200 170
Gabon 20 20 20 20
Ghana 5 5 5 5
Guinea 25 25 25 25
Kenya 382 302 386 410
Madagascar 80 80 80 80
Malawi 170 200 200 200
Mali 20 20 20 20
Mauritius 604 532 573 650
Mozambique 20 20 30 40
Nigeria 50 40 30 35
Reunion 185 165 209 229
Rwanda 5 5 5 5
Senegal 90 90 90 90
Sierra Leone 7 7 7 7
Somalia 30 30 30 30
South Africa 1,243 1,770 1,769 2,500
Swaziland 482 495 447 490
Tanzania 137 135 135 135
Togo 5 5 5 5
Uganda 50 50 75 90
Zaire 60 83 85 90
Zambia 150 155 160 170
Zimbabwe 56 524 512 380
Total 4,436 5,293 5,418 6,216
NORTH AFRICA
Algeria 10 10 10 10
Egypt 1,050 1,088 1,109 1,250
Morocco 495 470 460 460
Sudan 550 550 550 550
Tunisia 40 26 30 35
Total 2,145 2,144 2,159 2,305
MIDDLE EAST
Iran 900 900 940 800
Iraq 12 12 12 12
Lebanon 20 18 25 25
Syria 99 115 115 115
Turkey 2,191 1,678 1,375 2,000
Total 3,222 2,723 2,467 2,952
OTHER ASIA
Afghanistan 10 10 10 10
Bangladesh 233 290 200 250
Burma 55 60 60 60
China 6,505 5,900 6,750 7,000
India 6/ 11,660 16,410 18,270 17,000
Indonesia 2,480 2,450 2,100 2,450
Japan 842 817 898 870
Malaysia 114 102 107 110
Nepal 45 45 45 45
Pakistan 3,128 3,212 2,643 2,800
Philippines 1,809 1,647 1,787 1,850
Sri Lanka 60 60 60 60
Taiwan 496 441 397 370
Thailand 3,975 5,448 6,300 6,500
Vietnam 430 450 500 500
Total 31,842 37,342 40,127 39,875
OCEANIA
Australia 4,412 5,196 5,136 5,600
Fiji 458 535 471 480
Papua New Guinea 32 35 35 35
Total 4,902 5,766 5,642 6,115
WORLD TOTAL 109,787 115,842 122,509 124,989
1/ National crop years. About one-half are on a September/August basis.
Crop years for Southern Hemisphere countries begin prior to September.
Factors for converting from refined to raw value sugar are 1.07 for
cane sugar, 1.07 U.S. beet sugar, and 1.087 for beet sugar in other
countries
2/ Forecast.
3/ Preliminary.
4/ United States data include continental beet and cane and Hawaii
cane sugar, and Puerto Rico cane sugar.
5/ French data exclude production of cane sugar in Guadeloupe,
Martinique, and Reunion which are listed separately.
6/ Indian data include production of Khandsari sugar, a native type,
semi-white centrifugal sugar. Estimated output of Khandsari sugar
in thousands of tons (raw value equivalent) is as follows: 1994/95-720;
1995/96 - 620; 1996/97 - 620.
7/ Includes all 6 republics of the Former Yugoslavia.
SUGARBEET AREA, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION
World and Selected Countries
AREA BEET SUGARBEET RAW RECOVERY SUGAR
COUNTRY/YEAR HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION SUGAR RATE YIELD
1,000 Ha MT/H 1,000 MT 1,000 MT Percent MT/HA
NORTH AMERICA
United States 2/
1994/95 584 49.7 29,024 4,076 14.0 6.98
1995/96 574 44.3 25,425 3,553 14.0 6.19
1996/97 NOV 536 45.3 24,277 3,583 14.8 6.68
EUROPEAN UNION
Austria
1994/95 52 49.3 2,561 438 17.1 8.42
1995/96 52 55.5 2,886 480 16.6 9.23
1996/97 NOV 52 54.8 2,850 460 16.1 8.85
Belgium-Luxembourg
1994/95 101 56.7 5,729 945 16.5 9.36
1995/96 104 60.5 6,291 964 15.3 9.27
1996/97 NOV 105 58.1 6,100 1,000 16.4 9.52
Denmark
1994/95 66 44.6 2,942 487 16.6 7.38
1995/96 67 44.6 2,985 470 15.7 7.01
1996/97 NOV 67 52.2 3,500 480 13.7 7.16
France
1994/95 410 58.4 23,943 4,363 18.2 10.64
1995/96 426 59.0 25,121 4,601 18.3 10.80
1996/97 NOV 418 57.4 24,000 4,400 18.3 10.53
Germany
1994/95 506 47.8 24,211 3,991 16.5 7.89
1995/96 518 50.3 26,049 4,150 15.9 8.01
1996/97 NOV 514 52.5 27,000 4,550 16.9 8.85
Greece
1994/95 40 58.5 2,340 277 11.8 6.93
1995/96 42 61.0 2,561 314 12.3 7.48
1996/97 NOV 42 59.5 2,500 280 11.2 6.67
Ireland
1994/95 36 38.6 1,390 232 16.7 6.44
1995/96 36 43.0 1,547 242 15.6 6.72
1996/97 NOV 35 40.6 1,420 240 16.9 6.86
Italy
1994/95 285 41.8 11,905 1,622 13.6 5.69
1995/96 285 45.4 12,932 1,621 12.5 5.69
1996/97 NOV 245 44.9 11,000 1,460 13.3 5.96
Netherlands
1994/95 115 53.5 6,149 1,050 17.1 9.13
1995/96 116 55.6 6,449 1,085 16.8 9.35
1996/97 NOV 116 58.0 6,728 1,100 16.3 9.48
Portugal
1994/95 1 53.0 53 4 7.5 4.00
1995/96 1 60.0 60 3 5.0 3.00
1996/97 NOV 1 55.0 55 4 7.3 4.00
Spain
1994/95 180 45.0 8,100 1,205 14.9 6.69
1995/96 174 42.8 7,450 1,191 16.0 6.84
1996/97 NOV 161 47.8 7,700 1,192 15.5 7.40
United Kingdom
1994/95 170 49.2 8,360 1,373 16.4 8.08
1995/96 170 49.6 8,432 1,330 15.8 7.82
1996/97 NOV 170 50.0 8,500 1,500 17.6 8.82
Total European Union
1994/95 2,049 49.4 101,135 16,524 16.3 8.06
1995/96 2,079 51.2 106,351 17,001 16.0 8.18
1996/97 NOV 2,018 52.1 105,163 17,236 16.4 8.54
EAST EUROPE
Albania
1994/95 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
1995/96 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
1996/97 NOV 7 21.4 150 10 6.7 1.43
Bulgaria
1994/95 8 13.1 105 13 12.4 1.63
1995/96 8 16.9 135 16 11.9 2.00
1996/97 NOV 7 15.7 110 8 7.3 1.14
Czech Republic
1994/95 91 35.6 3,240 375 11.6 4.12
1995/96 90 41.2 3,712 477 12.9 5.30
1996/97 NOV 102 42.3 4,317 555 12.9 5.44
Hungary
1994/95 106 33.9 3,593 425 11.8 4.01
1995/96 122 36.6 4,460 484 10.9 3.97
1996/97 NOV 110 33.6 3,700 500 13.5 4.55
Poland
1994/95 400 29.1 11,630 1,492 12.8 3.73
1995/96 384 34.7 13,340 1,714 12.8 4.46
1996/97 NOV 436 34.4 15,000 2,200 14.7 5.05
Romania
1994/95 125 21.3 2,664 212 8.0 1.70
1995/96 133 20.0 2,655 207 7.8 1.56
1996/97 NOV 136 19.1 2,604 220 8.4 1.62
Slovakia
1994/95 34 32.5 1,105 130 11.8 3.82
1995/96 33 31.8 1,050 145 13.8 4.39
1996/97 NOV 33 36.4 1,200 180 15.0 5.45
Yugoslavia 3/
1994/95 115 28.7 3,300 340 10.3 2.96
1995/96 94 25.5 2,400 250 10.4 2.66
1996/97 NOV 106 35.8 3,800 400 10.5 3.77
Total Eastern Europe
1994/95 886 29.1 25,787 2,997 11.6 3.38
1995/96 871 32.0 27,902 3,303 11.8 3.79
1996/97 NOV 937 33.0 30,881 4,073 13.2 4.35
FSU-12
Belarus
1994/95 57 18.9 1,075 107 10.0 1.88
1995/96 55 21.3 1,172 152 13.0 2.76
1996/97 NOV 58 19.0 1,100 140 12.7 2.41
Kazakstan
1994/95 55 10.9 600 60 10.0 1.09
1995/96 45 15.6 700 50 7.1 1.11
1996/97 NOV 50 12.0 600 65 10.8 1.30
Kyrgyzstan
1994/95 12 9.2 110 11 10.0 0.92
1995/96 12 13.3 160 15 9.4 1.25
1996/97 NOV 12 17.9 215 15 7.0 1.25
Moldova
1994/95 75 18.7 1,400 160 11.4 2.13
1995/96 74 23.0 1,700 190 11.2 2.57
1996/97 NOV 75 24.0 1,800 190 10.6 2.53
Russia
1994/95 1,104 12.6 13,945 1,655 11.9 1.50
1995/96 1,085 17.6 19,110 2,060 10.8 1.90
1996/97 NOV 1,100 15.0 16,500 1,900 11.5 1.73
Ukraine
1994/95 1,485 18.9 28,138 3,600 12.8 2.42
1995/96 1,448 20.3 29,400 3,800 12.9 2.62
1996/97 NOV 1,390 18.3 25,500 3,000 11.8 2.16
Total FSU-12
1994/95 2,788 16.2 45,268 5,593 12.4 2.01
1995/96 2,719 19.2 52,242 6,267 12.0 2.30
1996/97 NOV 2,685 17.0 45,715 5,310 11.6 1.98
BALTICS
Latvia
1994/95 20 15.0 300 30 10.0 1.50
1995/96 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
1996/97 NOV 20 15.0 300 35 11.7 1.75
Lithuania
1994/95 31 17.7 550 50 9.1 1.61
1995/96 32 26.0 832 80 9.6 2.50
1996/97 NOV 32 25.0 800 70 8.8 2.19
Total Baltics
1994/95 51 16.7 850 80 9.4 1.57
1995/96 52 21.8 1,132 115 10.2 2.21
1996/97 NOV 52 21.2 1,100 105 9.5 2.02
MIDDLE EAST
Turkey
1994/95 405 31.5 12,757 1,678 13.2 4.14
1995/96 309 35.6 10,989 1,375 12.5 4.45
1996/97 NOV 415 34.5 14,300 2,000 14.0 4.82
ASIA
China 2/
1994/95 575 21.6 12,406 1,000 8.1 1.74
1995/96 690 20.3 13,984 1,200 8.6 1.74
1996/97 NOV 685 19.7 13,500 1,200 8.9 1.75
Japan 2/
1994/95 70 55.0 3,853 633 16.4 9.04
1995/96 70 54.5 3,813 708 18.6 10.11
1996/97 NOV 70 54.3 3,800 690 18.2 9.86
Subtotal
1994/95 7,408 269.2 231,080 32,581 14.1 4.40
1995/96 7,364 278.9 241,838 33,522 13.9 4.55
1996/97 NOV 7,398 277.1 238,736 34,197 14.3 4.62
Others
1994/95 390 42.9 16,718 2,169 13.0 5.56
1995/96 385 41.9 16,146 2,276 14.1 5.91
1996/97 NOV 384 40.6 15,599 2,188 14.0 5.70
WORLD
1994/95 7,798 31.8 247,798 34,750 14.0 4.46
1995/96 7,749 33.3 257,984 35,798 13.9 4.62
1996/97 NOV 7,782 32.7 254,335 36,385 14.3 4.68
1/ Refined beet sugar is converted to raw value by a
factor of 1.07 in the United States and 1.087 in other countries.
2/ Produces cane sugar as well as beet sugar.
3/ Includes all 6 republics of the former Yugoslavia.
SUGARCANE AREA, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION
World and Selected Countrie 1/
AREA CANE SUGARCANE RAW RECOVERY SUGAR
COUNTRY/YEAR HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION SUGAR RATE YIELD
1,000 Ha MT/Ha 1,000 MT 1,000 MT Percent MT/HA
Argentina
1994/95 240 46.7 11,200 1,180 10.5 4.92
1995/96 250 54.8 13,700 1,590 11.6 6.36
1996/97 NOV 260 49.2 12,800 1,320 10.3 5.08
Australia
1994/95 365 95.5 34,860 5,196 14.9 14.24
1995/96 383 98.0 37,537 5,136 13.7 13.41
1996/97 NOV 397 102.3 40,600 5,600 13.8 14.11
Brazil
1994/95 1,750 62.9 110,000 12,500 11.4 7.14
1995/96 1,950 61.5 120,000 13,700 11.4 7.03
1996/97 NOV 2,000 62.5 125,000 14,500 11.6 7.25
China 2/
1994/95 1,035 58.3 60,300 4,900 8.1 4.73
1995/96 1,025 63.8 65,417 5,550 8.5 5.41
1996/97 NOV 1,062 62.8 66,700 5,800 8.7 5.46
Colombia
1994/95 130 132.3 17,200 2,071 12.0 15.93
1995/96 131 132.1 17,300 2,002 11.6 15.28
1996/97 NOV 131 132.8 17,400 2,030 11.7 15.50
Cuba
1994/95 1,300 30.0 39,000 3,300 8.5 2.54
1995/96 1,300 35.0 45,500 4,450 9.8 3.42
1996/97 NOV 1,300 35.0 45,500 4,600 10.1 3.54
Dominican Republic
1994/95 208 26.0 5,400 482 8.9 2.32
1995/96 215 28.2 6,060 563 9.3 2.62
1996/97 NOV 215 28.8 6,200 590 9.5 2.74
Egypt 2/
1994/95 105 85.4 8,970 963 10.7 9.17
1995/96 101 85.4 8,630 982 11.4 9.72
1996/97 NOV 102 86.3 8,800 1,090 12.4 10.69
Fiji
1994/95 60 66.7 4,000 535 13.4 8.92
1995/96 58 69.0 4,000 471 11.8 8.12
1996/97 NOV 55 67.3 3,700 480 13.0 8.73
Guatemala
1994/95 150 84.9 12,736 1,333 10.5 8.89
1995/96 163 78.8 12,852 1,334 10.4 8.18
1996/97 NOV 170 81.0 13,770 1,440 10.5 8.47
India 3/
1994/95 2,240 71.2 159,593 16,410 10.3 7.33
1995/96 2,450 74.5 182,600 18,270 10.0 7.46
1996/97 NOV 2,300 71.1 163,500 17,000 10.4 7.39
Indonesia
1994/95 405 75.4 30,545 2,450 8.0 6.05
1995/96 400 75.0 30,000 2,100 7.0 5.25
1996/97 NOV 425 76.5 32,500 2,450 7.5 5.76
Mauritius
1994/95 75 66.7 5,000 532 10.6 7.09
1995/96 75 69.3 5,200 573 11.0 7.64
1996/97 NOV 77 75.1 5,780 650 11.2 8.44
Mexico
1994/95 521 77.0 40,134 4,556 11.4 8.74
1995/96 540 78.3 42,300 4,660 11.0 8.63
1996/97 NOV 540 77.8 42,000 4,600 11.0 8.52
Pakistan 2/
1994/95 732 46.7 34,193 3,192 9.3 4.36
1995/96 525 52.5 27,570 2,621 9.5 4.99
1996/97 NOV 641 47.0 30,100 2,780 9.2 4.34
Peru
1994/95 54 107.9 5,827 641 11.0 11.87
1995/96 56 110.0 6,160 641 10.4 11.45
1996/97 NOV 60 108.3 6,500 700 10.8 11.67
Philippines
1994/95 375 49.1 18,415 1,647 8.9 4.39
1995/96 367 62.1 22,774 1,787 7.8 4.87
1996/97 NOV 375 62.7 23,500 1,850 7.9 4.93
South Africa
1994/95 284 55.2 15,683 1,770 11.3 6.23
1995/96 289 58.0 16,750 1,769 10.6 6.12
1996/97 NOV 300 75.0 22,512 2,500 11.1 8.33
Sudan
1994/95 50 100.0 5,000 550 11.0 11.00
1995/96 50 100.0 5,000 550 11.0 11.00
1996/97 NOV 50 100.0 5,000 550 11.0 11.00
Swaziland
1994/95 37 102.7 3,800 495 13.0 13.38
1995/96 37 89.2 3,300 447 13.5 12.08
1996/97 NOV 37 100.0 3,700 490 13.2 13.24
Taiwan
1994/95 54 81.8 4,417 441 10.0 8.17
1995/96 49 81.0 3,967 397 10.0 8.10
1996/97 NOV 45 81.6 3,670 370 10.1 8.22
Thailand
1994/95 940 53.7 50,459 5,448 10.8 5.80
1995/96 960 60.1 57,693 6,300 10.9 6.56
1996/97 NOV 968 61.0 59,000 6,500 11.0 6.71
U.S. (Hawaii) 4/
1994/95 20 179.3 3,586 453 12.6 22.65
1995/96 16 207.8 3,324 415 12.5 25.94
1996/97 NOV 14 202.1 2,830 354 12.5 25.29
U.S. (Mainland) 2/ 5/
1994/95 331 66.2 21,899 2,620 12.0 7.92
1995/96 334 68.5 22,863 2,687 11.8 8.04
1996/97 NOV 317 66.1 20,965 2,504 11.9 7.90
Venezuela
1994/95 113 60.9 6,879 530 7.7 4.69
1995/96 100 60.0 6,000 456 7.6 4.56
1996/97 NOV 112 61.2 6,850 545 8.0 4.87
Zimbabwe
1994/95 36 117.9 4,244 524 12.3 14.56
1995/96 34 116.0 3,943 512 13.0 15.06
1996/97 NOV 34 80.9 2,750 380 13.8 11.18
Subtotal
1994/95 11,610 61.4 713,340 74,719 10.5 6.44
1995/96 11,858 65.0 770,440 79,963 10.4 6.74
1996/97 NOV 11,987 64.4 771,627 81,673 10.6 6.81
Others
1994/95 1,269 55.2 70,033 6,373 9.1 5.02
1995/96 1,296 56.2 72,849 6,748 9.3 5.21
1996/97 NOV 1,288 57.3 73,758 6,931 9.4 5.38
WORLD
1994/95 12,879 60.8 783,373 81,092 10.4 6.30
1995/96 13,154 64.1 843,289 86,711 10.3 6.59
1996/97 NOV 13,275 63.7 845,385 88,604 10.5 6.67
1/ Refined cane sugar is converted to raw value by a factor of 1.07.
2/ Produces beet sugar as well as cane sugar.
3/ Includes Khandsari (native type semi-white centrifugal sugar).
4/ Hawaiian cane is harvested once every 24 months.
Consequently, yield per hectare are much higher than in countries
where cane is harvested every year.
5/ Does not include Puerto Rico.
RAISIN/SULTANA PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
The 1996/97 raisin/sultana pack in the major commercial producing countries of the Northern Hemisphere is forecast at 473,700 tons (packed-weight basis), down 6 percent from 1995/96. Significant pack reductions in the United States, Turkey, and Mexico are responsible for the downturn in output.
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
United States: Raisin output in 1996/97 is projected to decline slightly from last year's small pack. In 1995/96, over 10,000 hectares were put in the raisin industry diversion program-- due to expected oversupply--which reduced the raisin pack by approximately 44,000 tons. Although no land was put into the diversion program in 1996/97, other factors such as increased demand for grapes for processing into juice and wine, have limited the available supply for drying. The first official estimate of the 1996/97 raisin pack in the United States will be released by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service in January 1997.
Turkey: The 1996/97 sultana pack in Turkey is forecast at 170,000 tons, down 11 percent from 1995/96. Record September rainfall has reportedly caused significant damage to the crop. Preliminary reports indicate that as much as 20 percent of the crop has not been dried and that a significant portion was only partially dried when the rain hit. Indications are that mold will be a problem, resulting in some crop loss, and a significant portion of the crop will be downgraded.
In recent years, most of the increase in seedless grape production has resulted from more intensive cultivation through better irrigation and the use of trellises, rather than from an increase in area. For the past several years, TARIS, the quasi-governmental Agean grower's cooperative for olives, cotton, figs, and sultanas, has advocated limiting the area planted to seedless grapes because it believes the export market is saturated. The idea has reportedly received little support from growers, the Government, or processors. On August 20, 1996, TARIS announced the 1996/97 procurement price of TL 85,000 per kilogram (about US$0.91 per kilogram). This price represents more than a 90-percent increase in the 1995/96 procurement price of TL 44,000 per kilogram in nominal terms and, with inflation averaging about 80 percent from August 1995 to August 1996, represents a slight increase in real terms.
Greece: The 1996/97 sultana pack is forecast at 30,000 tons, unchanged from last year. Production prospects this season were limited by an unexpected expansion of the Phyloxera virus in Crete. However, favorable weather, including the absence of rain during the drying period, has improved fruit quality this season. The Phyloxera Recovery Program is continuing to replace vineyards with Phlyoxera-resistant vines. By the year 2000, 60 to 70 percent of the vines will have been replaced with new plants, allowing output to recover to an estimated 65,000 to 70,000 tons.
Mexico: Raisin production in 1996/97 is forecast to decrease to 13,000 tons, 35 percent below last season. The combined effect of more grapes being diverted to the fresh table grape market and less than optimal weather during the growing season caused the reduction. Many fresh grapes were exported to the United States to be processed into raisins or grape juice.
Planted and harvested area for raisin grapes have remained stagnant over the past several years at 5,000 hectares. The cost of production for raisins in 1996/97 is still considered high at 8,000 pesos per hectare (US$1,015 per hectare) in Sonora. However, the cost depends on cultural practices, which have become less intensive due to the high cost of fertilizers and pesticides. Farmgate prices for raisins for 1996/97 range from 4,500 to 7,000 pesos per ton (US$570 to $890 per ton), significantly higher than last year because of lower domestic production.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
The forecast for the 1996/97 sultana pack in the Southern Hemisphere (harvested early in 1997) will be released in May 1997. The May 1996 (WAP 5-96) estimate for the 1995/96 pack has been revised downward--from 126,000 tons to 122,200--because of a significant reduction in the estimate for Australia. The estimates for Chile and South Africa remain unchanged at 34,000 tons and 30,000, respectively.
Australia: The 1995/96 sultana production estimate has been revised downward to 58,200 tons from the preliminary May 1996 forecast of 62,000. Although the crop did not reach the original target, the sultana pack was up 79 percent from 1994/95--the result of improved growing and drying weather and a decrease in demand for multi-purpose grapes by the wine industry.
Chile: Raisin production in 1995/96 is estimated at 34,000 tons, unchanged from the preliminary forecast, but down 3 percent from 1994/95 because of a reduction in total grape production. In addition to fresh consumption and drying, there is increasing competition for grapes from the grape juice concentrate industry.
South Africa: The 1995/96 raisin/sultana pack is estimated at 30,000 tons, down 22 percent from 1994/95. Inclement weather, including hail and wind damage during the growing season and late-season rains, led to the reduction in output.
____________________________________________
Kelly Kirby Strzelecki, Horticulture Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-6791
E-mail: strzelecki@fas.usda.gov
SOUTHEAST ASIA GRAIN PRODUCTION
Southeast Asia, for the purposes of this article, is comprised of Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Total grain production in Southeast Asia for 1996/97 is forecast at 104.0 million tons from an area of 49.2 million hectares. Production for 1996/97 is up 2 percent from the 102.1 million tons produced last season. Virtually every country in this region increased production this year following the upward trend of the past decade.
Burma: Milled rice output in 1996/97 is estimated at 10.4 million tons, up 4 percent from 1995/96. Gains in the monsoon crop accounted for all the year-to-year increases in area and production. (The monsoon crop comprises 82 percent of the total crop.) Previous projections of higher dry season production have been scaled back because of the lack of irrigation infrastructure and farmer preference for growing pulses during the dry season. The 1995/96 crop size, though 8 percent higher than the previous year, was limited by flooding and rain. This adverse weather damaged most of the seeded area in Irrawaddy Division, the major rice producing region. Also, fertilizer shortages occurred in the 1995/96 monsoon crop.
Cambodia: Milled rice production in 1996/97 is estimated at 2.2 million tons, up 2 percent from 1995/96 and 57 percent from 1994/95. Harvested area increased to 2.0 million hectares in 1996/97, up 3 percent from 1995/96 and 15 percent from 1994/95. The relatively good results the last two years are credited to good weather, more planted area, and recovery from decades of war. The Government of Cambodia is encouraging rice production in hopes of improving the domestic economy through rice exports.
Indonesia: Milled rice production is estimated at 33.5 million tons in 1996/97, up from 32.7 million tons in 1995/96. The Government is continuing its program to open new rice area, especially in Central Kalimantan. Harvested area is forecast at 11.6 million hectares in 1996/97, up from 11.4 million in 1995/96 and 1994/95. New rice varieties and improved farming methods are forecast to raise yields on a milled basis to 2.89 tons per hectare in 1996/97, from 2.87 tons per hectare in 1995/96, and from 2.83 tons per hectare in 1994/95.
Corn production is forecast at 6.0 million tons for 1996/97, down 3 percent from 1995/96, but up 9 percent from 1994/95. Harvested area is forecast to decrease to 3.5 million hectares, down 4 percent from 1995/96, but up 13 percent from 1994/95. The Ministry of Agriculture is continuing its corn expansion program that includes efforts in the Provinces of North Sumatra, Lampung, East Java, South Sulawesi, Central Java, and West Java. However, high rice prices are expected to cause farmers to shift area away from corn in 1996/97.
Laos: Rice production is estimated at 850,000 tons in 1996/97 and 1995/96, down from 950,000 tons in 1994/95. Heavy flooding along the Mekong River in both 1996/97 and 1995/96 caused significant damage to the rice crops which resulted in food shortages in local areas. Correspondingly, area harvested is estimated to have dropped to 520,000 hectares in both 1996/97 and 1995/96, from 610,000 hectares in 1994/95.
Malaysia: No major changes are foreseen for 1996/97 which for Malaysian rice runs from July through June. Milled rice production is forecast steady at 1.3 million tons on a harvested area of 665,000 hectares. For 1995/96, production is also estimated at 1.3 million tons, about the same as it was for the two previous years. Area harvested has been steady since 1993/94 at about 665,000 hectares. There were slight increases in area and production in 1995/96 in MADA, the main rice growing area in the country, which offset a drop in planted area in KADA. Total rice output from MADA was 567,000 tons or about 43 percent of the country's total. Other parts of the country enjoyed a normal harvest. Malaysia maintains a rice production support scheme which includes subsidies of about US$9.75 per 100 kilogram of paddy rice delivered to a licensed facility, and minimum support prices which makes the Government the buyer of last resort.
Philippines: Farmgate prices have now stabilized and with current large stocks, rice production in 1996/97 (July-June) is forecast at 7.3 million tons, only slightly higher than in 1995/96. Recent typhoons have caused damage to rice areas in central and southern producing areas, but have also supplied moisture to the growing crop and are not expected to significantly change overall prospects. There was a record-high production of rice in 1995/96 of 7.3 million tons, up 7 percent from 1994/95. The main reason for the increase appears to be an increase in area, 3.9 million hectares in 1995/96, up 7 percent from 1994/95. High rice prices, caused in part by higher prices for wheat imports, encouraged farmers to increase rice production.
For corn production in 1996/97 (July-June), a slight rise in yield is expected to be offset by a slight decline in area, leaving production forecast unchanged at 4.3 million tons. Production declined 5 percent in 1995/96 to 4.3 million tons primarily because competition from other crops reduced area 7 percent, to 2.8 million hectares. Reduced wet-season crop from July to January accounted for the decline. Rain during the dry season (from January to June) actually increased, particularly on the northern island of Luzon, compared with the previous year.
Thailand: Rice production in 1996/97 is estimated down, at 14.2 million tons. A dry spell delayed seeding right at planting and is expected to reduce average yields at harvest, now getting underway. Heavy rains during the growing season generally maintained the crop despite limited damage caused by flooding. The main- season crop, harvested October - January, suffered minimally from flooding in the lower north and central plains. Also, with large amounts of irrigation water available, the second crop, which made up 18 percent of the 1995/96 crop, is estimated to offset the flood losses of the main-season crop. Traditionally, the dry- season crop was harvested June-August but with the introduction of new varieties and new cropping patterns, a number of areas are harvesting two dry-season crops.
Corn area accounts for about 5 percent of total agricultural area and is mostly planted by small farmers with an average farm size of 8 to 12 acres. Thailand's corn production in 1996/97 (90 to 95 percent harvested in July-October 1996) is estimated at 4.2 million tons, up 14 percent from 1995/96. If realized it will be the highest production level since 1988/89. Record prices for corn in the previous season induced farmers to grow more corn by displacing other crops and using idle land. Yields are continuing to climb and are estimated at 3.4 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from 1995/96 and up 42 percent from a decade earlier.
Vietnam: Rice production on a milled basis for 1996/97 is forecast at 17.8 million tons, up 2 percent from 1995/96 and up 7 percent from 1994/95. This year, heavy rains along with resultant flooding are expected to affect the 10th-month crop, especially in the Mekong Delta. Over the past decade, both harvested area and yield have increased steadily as surplus production is sold in the world market. Vietnam produces rice year-round, with the crop divided into three seasons: the main season or 10th-month crop which is harvested generally around December-January; the Winter-Spring crop which is harvested generally around March-April; and the Summer-Autumn crop which is generally harvested around August-September. For the last few years, the 10th-month crop, the Winter-Spring crop, and the Summer-Fall crop have accounted for 31 percent, 46 percent, and 23 percent of the total crop, respectively.
-----------------------------------------------------
Paul Provance, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 720-0882
E-mail: provance@fas.usda.gov
Ukraine: Trip Report and 1996/97 Harvest Results
Ukraine crop production for 1996/97 fell substantially below last year's levels for nearly all major commodities. Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service traveled to Ukraine and met with republic-level officials, crop forecasters, and independent agricultural observers in order to assess grain and oilseed production and to examine the availability of agro-chemicals and fertilizers. While weather is chiefly to blame for the poor harvest results, the inadequate application of fertilizers and plant-protection agents continues to take its toll on grain and oilseed yields.
Grain production is estimated at 24.5 million tons (not including roughly 1.5 million tons of pulses and miscellaneous grains), down 7.4 million from last year. Wheat output is estimated at 14.5 million tons, down 1.8 million from last year despite a 14-percent increase in harvested area. Crops suffered from unfavorable weather during almost every growth stage. A prolonged winter delayed both the sowing of spring grains and the resumption of tillering for winter grains. Winter grains suffered also from a sudden transition to unusually high May temperatures, which resulted in an abbreviated growing season. Subsequent June drought intensified the stress on both winter and spring grains. Potential corn production was slashed by persistent summer dryness in southern and eastern Ukraine. Because of the drought, nearly 50 percent of the 1.2 million hectares planted as corn-for-grain was reportedly harvested as silage and output is estimated at 1.5 million tons compared to 3.4 million last year.
The output of technical crops is also forecast to fall short of 1995 levels. Sunflowerseed production is estimated to drop 30 percent, to 2.0 million tons, as a result of the same drought that lowered corn yield in southeastern Ukraine. Although only 19 million tons of sugar beets had been harvested by the end of October compared to 28 million last year, approximately 25 percent of the crop still remained to be harvested and the reported yield was down only 6 percent. The main sugar-beet zone is north and west of the area most affected by summer drought this year, and the crop escaped significant weather-related injury. Production is estimated at 25.5 million tons, down 13 percent from last year.
The application of fertilizers and plant-protection chemicals throughout the former Soviet Union has plummeted over the past six years. The situation does not stem from an actual shortage of products--as indicated by observers' estimates that up to 70 percent of the nitrogen fertilizer produced in Ukraine is exported--but rather can be attributed to skyrocketing prices following price liberalization in the early 1990's. Fertilizers and plant-protection chemicals remain prohibitively expensive for cash-strapped farms. Farms have responded to the high price of mineral fertilizers by increasing the use of organic fertilizers (including green-manure crops), adjusting crop rotations, and applying mineral fertilizers with greater efficiency. In most of the key agricultural areas, however, soil fertility remains below optimum levels. Insect pests have had a considerable negative impact on grain quality over the past two years as many fields go untreated. Further exacerbating the situation is the reportedly widespread use of non-certified seed, which has reduced both the yield and quality of the grain crop.
About the only encouraging news for the Ukrainian agricultural sector is that winter-crop sowing for 1997/98 was completed without notable problems and conditions were favorable for crop germination and establishment. According to a senior Ministry of Agriculture official, sown area of winter grains is slated to reach 8.6 million hectares, up 0.9 million from last year.
Mark Lindeman, Regional Analyst
Phone: (202) 690-0143
E-mail: lindeman@fas.usda.gov
THE EFFECTS OF BRAZIL'S ELIMINATION OF ICMS EXPORT TAXES ON SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS
Brazil imposes a sales tax on circulation and distribution of all goods and services, including soybeans and products. This tax is called the ICMS tax (i.e., "Imposto sobre Circulacao de Mercadorias e Servicos"). The ICMS tax can vary by state and product or service. The ICMS tax was structured in such a way that exports of soybean oil and soybean meal were favored over the export of soybeans. The previous ICMS tax applicable to exports was 13 percent for soybeans, 11.1 percent for soymeal, and 8 percent for soyoil.
On September 13, 1996, Brazil's President Fernando Henrique Cardoso signed Law 87, which among other provisions, provided an exemption of the ICMS taxes on exports of primary and semi-processed products, including soybeans and soybean products. This elimination of ICMS taxes on exports went into effect on Monday, September 16, 1996, and is expected to reduce the cost of doing business in Brazil, improve the trade balance, and give the Brazilian economy a badly needed boost. Many analysts report that the exemption could raise Brazil's exports by as much as 4 percent, and its GDP by 1.5 percent in 1997. According to Brazilian economists, the new legislation is the equivalent of a seven percent devaluation without the inflationary effect. To avoid disruption to state services due to an estimated (by the Planning Ministry) revenue losses of about $3.6 billion, Brazil's Central Government will compensate the states. This compensation will be made over a six to ten year period.
The elimination of the ICMS tax on exports is expected to stimulate soybean production and soybean exports. Competition from other crops such as corn and sugarcane in Parana, and corn in Rio Grande do Sul could prevent expansion of soybean acreage in these states. Thus, additional production should come from the Center-West. Although land in Brazil's Center-West is plentiful and potential for expansion is great, transportation to major ports or urban centers is a major limitation. During harvest time, transportation costs from Mato Grosso to the port of Paranagua can rise to as high as $70 to $80 per ton of soybeans during harvest peak.
The effect of Law 87 on the 1996/97 soybean crop will likely be marginal. In the short-term, greater expansion in area for 1996/97 will come from higher prices due to lower stocks, more than lower taxes. Soybean prices in Brazil have risen $80 per ton from last year, compared to a potential increase of $34 from the savings in taxes. In the long-term, however, if prices remain high, farmers in the Center-West could defray the high transportation costs with savings from the elimination of the tax on exports. However, if the price of soybeans return to levels below $6 per bushel, farmers in the Center-West will remain restricted in their ability to expand despite lower taxes and relatively higher returns. This problem will continue until Brazil finds a more reliable and less expensive method to transport soybeans out of the expansion areas. Also heavy farm debt and tight credit is still constraining production on current land, let alone expansion onto new land in Mato Grosso.
Although a number of infrastructural projects such as the Madeira River waterway are on its way, it is improbable that transportation of soybeans would become readily inexpensive in the near term. When and if completed, these projects could give further impetus to soybean cultivation in the Center West. The Madeira River waterway is apparently currently operating, and it would be beneficial for new area brought into production. However, the economic feasibility of this waterway for current area of production in Mato Grosso remains blurry.
On the prospects for greater soybean exports relative to the products, Brazil could export more beans. The increase in exports will likely come from additional production rather than a major shift from products to beans. Even if crushers receive no compensation, the large plants in Brazil (many of which are owned by foreign companies) will benefit greatly from leveling the playing field within Brazil. Some local companies have operated in the informal market and avoid paying taxes. Using current prices, on average the differential export tax provided a margin of about $9 per ton to Brazilian processors. Processors in most states earned only about $6, but in Rio Grande and Parana processors earned significantly more. Large companies in Brazil that made their tax payments to the Government, are likely to find that the incentives lost will be partially recovered through substantially fewer administrative costs of keeping tax records and advancing funds for the tax, thus making them more competitive in the internal market.
Another factor affecting the future of Brazil's exports is the complexity of the ICMS tax on inter-state trade. It appears that the movement of beans among states for crushing may become more difficult than before, providing an incentive for expanding crush capacity in the interior. The ICMS taxes have not been removed and subsequently to move soybeans from Mato Grosso to Sao Paolo the tax must be paid. Prior to Law 87, the importer state such as Parana and Rio Grande do Sul would compensate the state tax when exporting the product. Since, export taxes are zero, the incentive to move beans from one state to other have diminished.
Although there are a wide range of expectations regarding the elimination of the differential export tax in Brazil, most analysts agree that soybean production and farmers will benefit the most. On the other hand, the potential impact on crushers remains to be seen. Currently, Brazilian soybean processors claim that crush margins are low. If Brazil's 1997 soybean crop turns out to be smaller than expected, and soybean prices rise dramatically, Brazilian crushers could request a DET program similar to the Argentine system. Prospects for such legislation to pass a Brazilian congress would be very unlikely. World oilseed and product trade will benefit from Brazil action. This should encourage other countries to eliminate their DET to further liberalize world trade in oilseeds.
This article is a reprint of a paper written by Jaime Castaneda of the Cotton, Oilseeds, Tobacco, and Seeds Division, FAS, USDA.
For additional information contact:
Jaime Castaneda
Phone: (202) 720-0141
E-mail: castaneda@fas.usda.gov
Rod Paschal
Phone: (202) 720-0881
E-mail: paschal@fas.usda.gov
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