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October 1996
CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96
MMT MMT (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
WHEAT
World 581.0 +1.5 +0 +8
Production is forecast higher based on an upward revision in foreign
production.
United States
62.1 -0.4 -0 +5
Production is estimated lower based on reduced harvested area and
yield.
Total Foreign
518.9 +1.9 +0 +9
Production is forecast higher as increases in China, EU-15, and
Australia more than offset decreases in Russia, Ukraine, and
Yugoslavia.
China 109.0 +2.0 +2 +7
Production is forecast at a record level as reports from China
indicate higher yield for the winter wheat crop.
EU-15 98.7 +1.9 +2 +15
Production is forecast higher due to higher yields in France, the
United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, and Denmark.
Australia 20.0 +0.5 +3 +18
Production is forecast higher due to an increase in yield potential
in New South Wales.
Baltic Sts. 1.2 +0.3 +31 +34
Production is forecast higher due to increases in harvested area and
yield. Lithuania accounts for most of the revision.
Ethiopia 1.5 +0.3 +23 -6
Production is forecast higher based on increased harvested area.
Russia 35.0 -2.0 -5 +16
Production is forecast lower as harvest progress reports indicate
lower yield. Siberia is experiencing harvest delays due to
prolonged wet conditions.
Ukraine 14.5 -0.5 -3 -11
Production is forecast lower as harvest progress reports indicate
lower yield.
Yugoslavia 3.2 -0.4 -11 -32
Production is forecast lower due to a decrease in yield.
Poland 8.4 -0.2 -2 -3
Production is forecast lower based on harvest results that indicate
lower yield.
COARSE GRAINS
World 873.5 +8.3 +1 +10
Production is forecast higher on revised output for both the
United States and foreign producers.
United States
260.3 +6.1 +2 +24
Production is forecast higher based on increased yield prospects
for corn and sorghum.
.
Total Foreign
613.2 +2.1 +0 +5
Production is forecast higher as increases in China, EU-15,
Ethiopia, and the Baltic States more than offset decreases in
Kazakstan, Russia, Ukraine, and Nigeria.
China 131.1 +3.0 +2 +5
Production is forecast higher due to a favorable growing season
for corn. Corn production is forecast at a record 117.0 million
tons.
EU-15 103.4 +2.3 +2 +17
Production is forecast higher based mainly on higher barley yield
estimates for Denmark, Sweden, and United Kingdom. Also, Germany
and Sweden oats output are revised slightly higher.
Ethiopia 5.3 +0.9 +20 +4
Production is forecast higher due mainly to upward revisions in
barley, corn, and sorghum area.
Baltic States 2.6 +0.6 +28 +25
Production is forecast higher for Lithuania's barley and rye
output, while Latvia and Estonia's barley, oats and rye are
raised.
Philippines 4.3 +0.2 +5 NC
Production is forecast higher due to higher yield prospects.
Kazakstan 2.5 -1.7 -41 -18
Production is forecast lower based on harvest progress reports.
Barley area and yield are reduced along with oats yield.
Russia 32.1 -1.0 -3 +5
Production is forecast lower as harvest progress reports indicate
lower corn and barley output.
Ukraine 9.9 -0.9 -8 -36
Production is forecast lower due to harvest progress reports.
Projected corn, oats and rye yields are reduced.
Nigeria 15.2 -0.7 -4 -4
Production is forecast lower for corn as yield fell due to
fertilizer shortages and erratic rainfall.
Canada 28.4 -0.4 -2 +18
Production is forecast lower based on a Statistics Canada report
indicating decreases in barley, oats, and rye output.
Eastern Europe
48.2 -0.3 -1 -7
Production is forecast lower for barley in Hungary and Poland, but
higher for corn in Poland.
WORLD RICE (MILLED BASIS)
World 376.2 +0.5 +0 +1
Production is forecast higher based on better yields in the United
States and revised area for foreign producers.
US 5.8 +0.2 +3 +1
Production is estimated higher based on higher area and yield
forecasts for producers in the southern states.
Tot.Foreign 370.4 +0.3 +0 +1
Production is forecast higher due to a increases in South Korea
and Philippines.
Rep. Korea 5.1 +0.3 +7 +8
Production is forecast higher due to favorable weather throughout
most of the growing season.
Philippines 7.3 +0.3 +4 +1
Production is forecast higher based on increases in harvested area
and yield.
Nigeria 2.0 -0.3 -13 -12
Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in yield caused by
erratic rainfall and fertilizer shortages.
OILSEEDS
World 256.3 +2.9 +1 +0
Production is projected higher based on revised yields in the
United States and harvests reports for foreign crops.
United States 73.5 +2.3 +3 +6
Production is estimated higher based on revised yield projections.
The majority of the increase is a result of improved soybean pod
development and weight from favorable weather late in the growing
season.
Total Foreign 182.9 +0.7 +0 -2
Production is forecast higher due to revised crop estimates for
Pakistan, Europe, India, and Bolivia.
Pakistan 3.7 +0.3 +9 -4
Production of cottonseed is adjusted higher based on a revised
seed-to-lint ratio.
EU-15 12.6 +0.5 +4 -5
Production is projected higher based on harvest reports. French
rapeseed and sunflowerseed yields are up due to good growing
conditions. Good weather also benefitted the Italian soybean
yield and the sunflowerseed harvested area.
India 25.0 +0.3 +1 +1
Production is projected slightly higher based on higher cotton
yield. Cotton benefitted from an excellent monsoon season and a
reduced pest population.
Canada 7.2 -0.2 -2 -17
Production is projected down based on official government
estimates by Statistics Canada for rapeseed and soybean yields.
The harvest should be completed by the end of October.
PALM OIL
World 16.2 NC NC +4
No change this month. Production is forecast at a record, up 0.7
million tons from last year.
COTTON
CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96
MBALES MBALES (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
World Total 87.5 +0.1 +0 -4
Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase in
the United States.
United States 18.2 +0.3 +2 +2
Production is estimated up as higher yields in California and
Texas increased output.
Total Foreign 69.3 -0.2 -0 -6
Production is forecast slightly lower this month mainly due to
output drops in Pakistan and China, offsetting production gains in
India, Egypt and Mexico.
Pakistan 7.6 -0.6 -7 -6
Production is forecast down due to heavy white fly damage
throughout the main cotton growing area of the Punjab Province.
This Province produces 80 to 85 percent of the crop.
China 17.5 -0.5 -3 -20
Production is forecast down due to lower area. This reflects
losses that occurred from heavy rains in August and more recently
less-than-favorable pre-harvest weather conditions.
India 12.0 +0.7 +6 -2
Production is forecast up due to increased yield as major cotton
producing states in the Northern and Central zones had an
excellent monsoon season with low insect and disease infestation.
Egypt 1.5 +0.1 +7 +38
Production is forecast up due to increased yield as end-of- season
weather favored the maturation of the crop.
Mexico 1.1 +0.1 +10 +28
Production is forecast up due to increased area with a slight
rise in yield. Available irrigation supplies were used to support
the cotton crop.
EARLY RELEASE BULLETIN
WORLD COCOA BEAN PRODUCTION
World cocoa bean production for the 1996/97 season
(October/September) is forecast at 2.66 million tons, down 8 percent
from last year's revised record outturn of 2.88 million. The
reduction is based upon projections of smaller harvests in Cote
d'Ivoire, Ghana, Brazil, Malaysia, and Cameroon.
In Cote d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa bean producer, the
1996/97 forecast of 1.05 million tons is down 12 percent from the
1995/96 record outturn of 1.20 million due, in part, to heavy rains
from May through August that destroyed blossoms and young pods,
especially in the southern and eastern growing areas. The 1996/97
forecast consists of 900,000 tons of main crop production, including
50,000 tons held over from the 1995/96 mid-crop, and 150,000 tons of
mid-crop beans.
In Ghana, the 390,000 ton cocoa bean crop forecast for 1996/97 is
down 7 percent from last season's revised estimate of 420,000. This
is a normal cyclical decline following the large volume of beans
harvested during the 1995/96 season. The main crop harvest, which
begins in late-October, is forecast at 350,000 tons. The 1996/97
mid-crop, due to be harvested from May through June 1997, is
forecast at 40,000 tons.
The 1996/97 forecast for Indonesia pegs cocoa bean production at
280,000 tons, up 2 percent from 1995/96. Locust and pod borer
infestations, poor management practices, and continued use
of low-quality seedlings remain the major problems for the cocoa bean
industry in Indonesia.
In Brazil, the 1996/97 cocoa bean production forecast of 198,000
tons is down 12 percent from the revised 1995/96 estimate of
225,000. Inclement weather, the continued spread of the
witches-broom fungus, and strained farmer finances are the key reasons why
Brazil's 1996/97 cocoa bean crop may end up being the smallest one
recorded since the 1972/73 harvest of 158,000 tons.
The 1996/97 forecasts for the remaining major cocoa-producing
countries indicate only modest changes from last season with the
exception of Nigeria, up 7 percent to 150,000 tons, and Cameroon,
down 15 percent to 110,000.
________________________________
Franklin Hokana, (202) 720-0875
WORLD COCOA BEAN PRODUCTION 1/
(1,000 Metric tons)
1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97
Costa Rica 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
Guatemala 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Honduras 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Mexico 43.5 34.0 38.5 42.1 43.0
Nicaragua 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Panama 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
NORTH & Central
America 51.7 42.1 47.1 50.7 51.6
Cuba 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Dominican Republic 50.8 58.7 56.8 57.7 57.0
Grenada 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Haiti 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Jamaica 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Trinidad and Tobago 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Other 2/ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
CARIBBEAN 60.2 68.7 66.8 67.7 67.0
Bolivia 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Brazil 330.0 281.0 228.4 225.0 198.0
Colombia 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0
Ecuador 76.0 80.0 82.0 81.5 82.5
Peru 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Surinam 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Venezuela 16.5 16.0 11.0 14.0 14.0
SOUTH AMERICA 496.1 450.6 395.0 394.1 368.1
Angola 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Cameroon 100.0 105.0 107.0 130.0 110.0
Comoro Islands 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Congo 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Cote d' Ivoire 3/ 700.0 850.0 873.0 1200.0 1050.0
Equatorial Guinea 5.7 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
Gabon 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5
Ghana 4/ 312.0 311.5 315.0 420.0 390.0
Liberia 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Madagascar 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Nigeria 5/ 140.0 130.0 130.0 140.0 150.0
Sao Tome and Princip
3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Sierra Leone 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Tanzania 2.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0
Togo 3/ 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0
Uganda 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Zaire 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
AFRICA 1,283.2 1,422.8 1,450.4 1,913.5 1,723.5
India 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Indonesia 240.0 280.0 255.0 275.0 280.0
Malaysia 225.0 204.0 134.0 125.0 120.0
Philippines 6.0 7.0 7.9 7.3 7.0
Sri Lanka 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
ASIA 478.4 498.4 404.3 414.7 414.4
Fiji 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Papua New Guinea 39.0 31.0 29.0 30.0 30.0
Solomon Islands 4.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Vanuatu 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Western Samoa 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
OCEANIA 45.9 36.6 34.6 35.6 35.6
WORLD 2,415.5 2,519.2 2,398.2 2,876.3 2,660.2
1/ Estimates refer to an October-September crop year.
2/ Includes Be
Martinique. 3/ Includes some cocoa marketed from Ghana.
4/ Includes. 5/ Includes cocoa marketed through Benin.
October 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division
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