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000 FXUS66 KLOX 161059 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 400 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008 .SHORT TERM... MARINE LAYER IS SITTING UNDER 400 FEET BUT THE ONLY LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST. A 1000 FOOT CIG AT KSNS WILL RUSH DOWN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY AND CREATE MORNING CLOUDS FOR PASO ROBLES. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTER AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOUNTAIN/DESERT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTM OVER THE VTA/LA MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MDL RUNS ARE TRENDING TO A DRIER SOLN. COASTAL AND VLY TEMPS SOUTH WILL DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY FROM YDYS MAX TEMPS AS SOUTH FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP A LID" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">LID ON RUN AWAY WARMING. THE GALE IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL SPIN AN EDDY UP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE L.A. COAST AND PATCHY CLOUDS TO VENTURA. THERE WILL BE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND ALL AREAS SHOULD COOL EXCEPT THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL. THE EDDY CONTINUES TO SPIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT A LITTLE NORTH PUSH SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS MOSTLY OUT OF THE VLYS (EXCEPT THE SANTA YNEZ) THE NORTH PUSH WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A WEAK SUNDOWNER AND SOME I-5 CORRIDOR WINDS. THE LOWER HGTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND. .LONG TERM... GFS AND EC IN TOTAL DISAGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THE EC OPENS IT UP AND MOVES QUICKLY OUT INTO NRN NV WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOW MOVING CUT OFF LOW WHICH SPENDS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MEANDERING OVER CALIFORNIA. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO POINT OUT A VERY CONFUSED PATTERN WITH LITTLE OR NO AGREEMENT IN ANY OF THE PERTURBATIONS. THUS MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND WILL HOPE FOR SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS. && .AVIATION... 16/1100Z KLAX... KBUR... && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...BRUNO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES