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Market Outlook
Commodity Policy
Trade
Biotechnology
Market Outlook
Cotton
and Wool Yearbook provides in-depth information, analysis,
and data on U.S. and international cotton and wool market
developments (annual).
For information on current and previous baseline projections
for upland cotton, see the Market
Outlook chapter.
The
United States and World Cotton Outlook 
examines the preliminary U.S. and world outlook for 2006/07
as presented at the February 2006 USDA Outlook Forum.
U.S. and foreign growers are projected to increase area
planted to cotton in 2006/07, responding to record global
demand. See accompanying
charts
(02/06).
Characteristics and
Production Costs of U.S. Cotton Farms presents the
latest survey data on costs of cotton production in the
United States. Production costs may vary by region, size
of operation, and other farm characteristics (10/01).
Factors
Affecting the U.S. Farm Price of Upland Cotton
examines historic influences on farm level prices. With
the declining role of government agricultural programs
since the mid-1990s, supply and demand conditions in the
United States and around the world have played a more
prominent role in determining U.S. cotton prices (11/98).
Commodity Policy
Cotton
Backgrounder addresses key domestic and international
market and policy developments that have affected the
U.S. cotton sector in recent years. It provides an analysis
of the competition among crops for domestic farmland and
the international supply and demand for cotton and cotton
products. The report also covers farm programs and contains
a profile of operating and financial characteristics of
U.S. farms producing cotton (03/07).
Valuing Counter-Cyclical
Payments: Implications for Producer Risk Management
and Program Administration illustrates an improved
method for estimating counter-cyclical payment rates
by accounting for the variability in market price
forecast errors. Forecasters and producers can use
the model to calculate the probability of having to
repay advanced counter-cyclical payments (02/07).
The 2002 Farm Bill: Provisions
and Economic Implications presents an overview of
the Act and a side-by-side comparison of 1996-2001 farm
legislation and the 2002 Act. For selected programs, links
are provided to additional analyses of key changes, program
overview, and economic implications (05/02).
Cotton: Background
and Issues for Farm Legislation addresses considerations
in the 2002 farm bill debate, including market conditions,
policy proposals, trade agreements, and the interactions
between policy and markets (08/01).
Analysis of the U.S.
Commodity Loan Program with Marketing Loan Provisions
assesses the impacts of marketing loans on production,
use, and prices, and illustrates that the program has
enabled farmers to attain, on average, per-unit revenues
that exceed commodity loan rates (04/01).
Supply Response Under
the 1996 Farm Act and Implications for the U.S. Field
Crops Sector measures the acreage response of producers
of major field crops to planting flexibility provided
in the 1996 Farm Act (09/00).
An
Economic Analysis of U.S. Total Fiber Demand and Cotton
Mill Demand
examines changes in U.S. cotton consumption since the
1960s and assesses prospects for future demand, particularly
in the context of expanding textile trade (11/99).
Provisions of the Federal
Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 provides
a detailed description and explanation of the 1996 farm
legislation, which contained major changes in U.S. cotton
and other commodity programs (09/96).
The 1996 U.S. Farm Act
Increases Market Orientation offers an initial assessment
of changes in the farm legislation affecting the various
commodities (08/96).
Trade
USDA has developed a new approach for estimating cotton consumption in China based on textile import and export data. China's Cotton Supply and Demand: Issues and Impact on the World Market reviews how textile trade data are converted to cotton-fiber equivalents. China's households are also one of the world's leading sources of demand for cotton products, and thus the report also estimates household consumption in China and expected consumption growth (11/07).
Progress
and Problems Estimating China’s Cotton Supply and
Demand
examines China’s trade in cotton textiles. The implications
of textile trade for China’s domestic textile consumption,
cotton production, and policy transparency are also examined
(03/07).
U.S. Textile and Apparel
Industries and Rural America examines global textile
trade liberalization and the challenges facing U.S. textile
and apparel workers and the nonmetro counties dependent
on those industries. With 40 percent of all U.S. textile
and apparel jobs lost since 2000, some rural communities
in the Southeast—where the majority of those jobs
existed—face particular difficulties (08/06). See
also the AmberWaves finding, Textile
Trade Liberalization Brings Difficulties to Some Rural
Communities (09/06).
The
World Bids Farewell to the Multifiber Arrangement
(MFA) describes the genesis and consequences of the MFA,
and the impacts of its removal. China, India, and Pakistan
are the cotton-textile-exporting countries expected to
benefit most from the MFA’s demise. However, global
cotton use is largely being driven by other factors, such
as income growth (02/06). For the full report, see The
Forces Shaping World Cotton Consumption After the Multifiber
Arrangement (04/05).
Estimating
the Raw-Fiber Equivalent of U.S. Cotton Textile and Apparel
Imports provides a brief description of the process
and its importance to the domestic market, particularly
as trade patterns are altered in the "quota-free"
environment (09/05).
Growth Prospects
for India's Cotton and Textile Industries are changing
now that the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) no longer governs
world textile trade. Decades of industrial policies that
were both inward-oriented and biased toward small-scale
production continue to influence India's textile trade
prospects. Quality issues are likely to hamper Indian
cotton sales until the structure of the country's cotton
marketing system changes significantly (06/05).
China's New Farm Subsidies
describes new policies that China implemented in 2004
and assesses their impact on Chinese rural income and
grain production. China introduced direct subsidies for
farmers, began to phase out its centuries-old agricultural
tax, and implemented other policies benefitting farmers
(02/05).
The Changing
World Network of Trade in Textiles and Apparel highlights
recent changes in the nature of textile and clothing trade
and draws implications about the impact of the complete
removal of Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) quotas, scheduled
for January 1, 2005 (09/04). For this and more data, see
the ERS Bilateral Fiber
and Textile Trade Database.
U.S.
Cotton and the Appreciation of the Dollar
explains how the strong U.S. dollar has exacerbated
the difficulties facing the U.S. cotton and textile industries,
and examines some sources of the dollar's fluctuation
(04/02).
Regional
Shifts in China's Cotton Production and Use
examines changes in the country's geographic distribution
of cotton and textile production. Developments in China,
the world's largest producer and user of raw cotton, have
global ramifications, particularly given China's recent
accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) (11/01).
The
Agreement on Textiles and Clothing: Impact on U.S. Cotton
focuses on the new global trade rules that WTO members
agreed to follow beginning in 2005, and the potential
impacts on textile, apparel, and cotton production in
the United States and around the world (11/01).
The New Agricultural
Trade Negotiations: Background and Issues for the U.S.
Cotton Sector
reviews accomplishments of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture
in the global cotton market and examines issues for the
new negotiations, such as further tariff reductions and
market access improvement, elimination of export subsidies,
and further limitations on domestic government support
to agriculture (11/00).
International
Trade Agreements Bring Adjustment to the Textile and Apparel
Industries
addresses employment trends in the U.S. textile and apparel
industries that accompanied liberalized trade, and discusses
trade assistance programs that target communities where
plants have been affected (06/00).
The
Global Spin on Trade Policy for Cotton examines the
impact of trade liberalization on the cotton sector. Export
subsidies are nearly non-existent for cotton, and import
barriers are generally low, although China's policies
have been exceptions that WTO accession will alleviate.
The WTO is liberalizing textile and apparel trade, which
indirectly will affect the location of cotton consumption
and production (03/00).
World
Cotton Market: A Decade of Change
examines changes in the U.S. and world cotton markets
during the 1990s (12/00).
U.S.
Cotton Production and Textile Imports Weave New Relationship
examines changes occurring in the U.S. sectors as a result
of trade liberalization and rising textile and apparel
trade (11/98).
China's
Cotton Sector Under Stress
traces the history of government control in China's cotton
industry and examines changes in China that could relax
the government monopoly on cotton purchases (11/98).
U.S.
and World Cotton Markets Diverge
examines a divergent situation between the U.S. and world
cotton markets in 1998/99, with U.S. stocks shrinking
and foreign stocks mounting (09/98).
Biotechnology
The First Decade of Genetically
Engineered Crops in the United States reports that
over the past 10 years, farmers have widely adopted genetically
engineered (GE) varieties of corn, soybeans, and cotton.
While consumer concerns about foods contain GE ingredients
vary by country—European consumers are the most
apprehensive—those concerns have not had a large
impact on the market for GE crops in the United States
(04/06).
Size and Distribution
of Market Benefits from Adopting Biotech Crops estimates
the size and distribution of market benefits from adopting
Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton, herbicide-tolerant
cotton, and herbicide-tolerant soybeans in 1997. Impacts
on U.S. farmers, U.S. consumers, biotechnology developers,
germplasm suppliers, and producers and consumers in other
countries are assessed (11/03).
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