Overview
Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect continued high crude oil prices as well as strong demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the European Union (EU). U.S. agricultural projections reflect large increases in corn-based ethanol production, which affects production, use, and prices of farm commodities throughout the sector. Expansion of biodiesel use in the EU raises demand for vegetable oils in global markets. Additionally, steady domestic and international economic growth in the projections supports gains in consumption, trade, and prices. Although export competition is projected to continue, global economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation for gains in world trade and U.S. agricultural exports. Combined with increases in domestic demand, particularly related to growth in ethanol production, the results are generally higher market prices. As a result, overall net farm income remains strong and reaches record levels in the latter part of the projections. Continuing adjustments in response to higher energy and agricultural commodity prices push U.S. retail food prices up more than general inflation in the near term, but then food prices increase less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projections period.
The process of preparing the projections
incorporates a composite of model results and judgment-based analysis.
The individual
chapters of this briefing room present assumptions and results
from the 2008-17 baseline, released in February 2008. View the
baseline highlights in full in HTML.
Features
USDA Agricultural Projections
to 2017 (February 2008) contains longrun projections covering
supply, demand, prices, and other economic variables for major
U.S. crop and livestock sectors. The complete report is also
available in Microsoft
Word.
Additional discussions are available highlighting factors underlying
baseline projections for Rice,
Soybeans, and Wheat.
Ethanol Expansion in the
United States: How Will the Agricultural Sector Adjust? (May 2007) examines
effects of the expansion in U.S. ethanol production. Market impacts extend
well beyond corn, the primary feedstock for ethanol in the United States,
to supply and demand for other crops, such as soybeans and cotton, as well
as to U.S. livestock industries. As a consequence of these commodity market
impacts, farm income, government payments, and food prices also change. See narrated
slideshow for an overview; see related Amber Waves feature U.S.
Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes Throughout the Agricultural Sector (September 2007).
Recommended Readings
Ethanol
Reshapes the Corn Market (May 2007) discusses the prospects
for the future growth of ethanol production in the United States.
The expansion in this sector is stimulating demand for corn,
but alternatives to corn may dampen that demand in the future.
The World
Bids Farewell to the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) (February
2006) describes the genesis and consequences of the MFA, and the
impacts of its removal. China, India, and Pakistan are the cotton-textile-exporting
countries expected to benefit most from the MFA’s demise.
However, global cotton use is largely being driven by other factors,
such as income growth. For the full report, see The Forces Shaping
World Cotton Consumption After the Multifiber Arrangement (April
2005).
Analysis of the U.S. Commodity
Loan Program with Marketing Loan Provisions (April 2001) illustrates
that marketing loans have enabled farmers to attain, on average,
per-unit revenues that exceed commodity loan rates, and assesses
the impacts on production, use, and prices.
Previous Baseline Projections Reports
provides the complete departmental baseline reports, released annually
in February, as well as ERS summary discussions of the projections.
See all recommended readings...
Recommended Data Products
Baseline Projection Tables are
available in XLS and WK1 formats.
A database for the baseline is available,
covering projections for major field crops and livestock.
International Baseline Data cover supply, demand, and trade projections for major agricultural commodities.
Recent Research Developments
Baseline models. ERS is developing and upgrading economic
models for analyzing commodity and country developments and trends,
for use in the USDA baseline projections. Contact: Paul
Westcott
Questions and Answers
Frequently asked questions about the USDA Baseline address the nature
of the projections, timing of release, and how the projections are
used.
See all questions and answers...
Related Links
USDA's Agricultural Outlook
Forum provides timely forecasts of prospects for the agricultural
sector and insight on developments affecting the food and farm economy.
Access information and presentations from recent years.
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