I’m going to interrupt blogging about surprising liquid puddles and soil temperature to talk about the Second Pole-to-Pole Videoconference, which took place yesterday (8 April 2008). Several scientists participated, as did five schools: in Ushuaia, Argentina, the Escuela Provincial No. 38 Julio Argentina Roca; and in Alaska, the Randy Smith Middle School (Fairbanks), Moosewood Farm Home School (Fairbanks), Wasilla High School (Wasilla), and Innoko River School (Shageluk). The Web Conference was hosted by the GLOBE Seasons and Biomes Earth System Science team, at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks.

Figure 1. Locations of the schools in Alaska. Courtesy Dr. Elena Sparrow

Flgure 2. Location of Ushuaia, which is near the southern tip of South America. Part of Antarctica appears on the southern part of the map.

The focus was on climate change, in particular:

1. The most important seasonal indicators (things that change with season)
2. Whether they are being impacted by climate change (if so, how?)
3. How students could study these indicators to see if they are impacted by climate change.

As was the case last year, the students had an opportunity to ask questions of the students at the other schools as well as the scientists, but the conversation was more structured. We organized the conversations into three rounds. In Round 1, the Alaskan and Argentinean students were to ask each other about signs of seasonal change or share their own observations. In Round 2, the focus was on how to narrow questions down enough so that students could investigate them. And in Round 3, we were supposed to discuss the ways the investigations could be done.

The questions in Round 1 were wide-ranging. Why do leaves change color? Why is the soil frozen when the air is warm? Does the melting of permafrost cause damage to buildings and trees? Are glaciers disappearing? Do scientists use Native knowledge in their research? How does climate change affect plants and animals?

We learned that soil below ground warms and cools with the seasons more slowly than the air, and – the farther you go down, the less the temperature changes (this is also discussed in the previous few blogs). We also learned that the changes in the lower layers of the soil took place after the changes higher up (in scientific terms, the changes in the lower layers lags the changes in the upper layers). So a student was able to guess that late summer is the best time to test for permafrost, rather than the height of summer, when the sun angle is the highest.

We discovered that scientists are using Native knowledge in their research in many parts of the world, including not only Alaska and Canada, but also in Australia. We learned that magpies are coming farther north to Shageluk, and there are more pine grosbeaks than there used to be, although a student in Fairbanks didn’t notice any changes. We also learned that tree line is moving up in the mountains near Ushuaia.

In Round 2, questions focused on some fascinating things to investigate, including changes in the snowboarding season (of interest to students in both hemispheres), changes in temperature and precipitation, and succession of species after wildland fires. In fact, the students at Shageluk are already investigating the succession of species of some land recovering from a forest fire (see pictures at the Shageluk web site). The discussion of temperatures taught us the difference between maritime (Ushuaia and Wasilla) and continental (Fairbanks and Shageluk) climates: Ushuaia rarely gets below freezing, but Fairbanks has temperatures as low as -40 (same in Fahrenheit and Celsius), although such cold temperatures aren’t as common and persistent as they used to be). The discussion of snowboarding led to suggestions of investigating how long ski areas remain open, interviewing someone at a ski area about what conditions are good for snowboarding, thinking about what makes snow last (amount of precipitation, timing of precipitation, temperature). Two intriguing observations were that there were both more cumulus clouds in Ushuaia than there used to be, and more heavy rains.

With so many ideas generated in Round 2, some investigations were already outlined in some detail by the time we got to Round 3 – especially related to snowboarding. But snowboarding ideas continued to come up. A ski area had closed in Ushuaia, because its elevation was too low in the warming climate; and students in both hemispheres thought snowboarding might be an interesting thing to investigate together. Since the seasons are opposite, the study could be continuous.

Some new ideas also emerged about items to investigate. How about looking at when people take off or put on snow tires? Is that a good indicator of climate change? What about using frost tubes to monitor freezing and thawing in the soil in Ushuaia as well as Alaska? And how would frost-tube measurements relate to air temperature or the times that lakes and rivers freeze? And one could investigate the long-term seasonal geographic changes in diseases (mosquito-borne diseases, corn diseases).

It was pointed out to us that using a simple variable like temperature could yield some fascinating results beyond averages and simple trends. Is there a trend in how many days that the temperature stays above freezing? How about for the number of days when temperatures stay below freezing? How does this relate to precipitation? Clouds?

Also, we were reminded that not all changes we see are due to climate change – we humans are changing our environments in many other ways, such as destroying wilderness areas. And that trends we see in a few years can be quite different from the long-term trend. (That is, one cold winter doesn’t mean that it is getting colder on the long term.)

Through this rich mix of ideas for research topics and data to look at, the students continuously asked about each others’ lives. One of the most fascinating exchanges took place toward the end of the videoconference, when a student from Alaska asked the students in Ushuaia what kind animals they had and what kind of wildlife they ate. The Ushuaia students listed foxes, llamas, beaver, rabbit, birds, and penguins as the animals they had; and said that they ate rabbits, fish, and some beavers (but mostly tourists ate beavers). The beavers were apparently introduced to the region in 1946, and there are no natural enemies, so people are being encouraged to eat them.

A student from Shugaluk closed the discussion section of the conference by putting things in perspective. Yes, skate boarding and dog mushing are interesting, but for the Native peoples of the far North, their very way of life is being threatened. Earlier, a student in Ushuaia said that a glacier that was supplying water to the city was melting and would be gone in a few decades, leading to a shortage of drinking water. As one of the scientists said earlier, like the canary in the coal mine that warned of dangerous gases in a mine– the people in the Polar regions are the first to see the real danger in climate change. We need to remember this as we begin to take steps to try to slow down climate change and its impacts.

NOTES IN CLOSING:

There will be a web chat and web forum April 10-11. The purpose is to help students develop research ideas and projects, and interact with scientists. Links to the chat and forum can be found on the Pole-to-Pole Videoconference page of GLOBE Web site.

Three PowerPoint presentations describe the science and people of Ushuaia. They are also available on the Videoconference page at the above link.

Finally, I recall promising a student from Fairbanks that we would return to the topic of leaves changing color. Since we didn’t follow up on this question, I thought I would include a discussion here. The leaves change color because the chlorophyll, which gives the leaves their green color, disappears in the fall, so that other chemicals in the leaves give them their color. The chlorophyll, of course, is involved in photosynthesis, which provides plants the energy to grow. Different types of trees change different colors. For example, some maple trees turn bright red, while aspen trees turn yellow in the autumn. The weather actually affects how bright the colors are in the fall. In long term, the climate also affects the trees that can stay healthy in a given place. Thus the mix of trees, and hence the colors could change over many decades.

More information is available about leaf color under the Seasons and Phenology Learning Activities, Activity P5 “Investigating Leaf Pigments” in the Earth as a System Chapter of the GLOBE Teachers’ Guide.

The seasons and Biomes project is an effort to engage students in Earth system science studies as a way of learning science. It is a timely project for this fourth International Polar Year with many and intense collaborative research efforts on the physical, biological, and social components and their interactions. Changes in the Polar Regions affect the rest of the world and vice versa, since we are all connected in the earth system. I encourage students to conduct their own inquiry whether collectively as a class or in small groups, or individually. Students can use the many already-established GLOBE measurements in the areas of atmosphere/weather. soils/land cover/biology, hydrology, and plant phenology in their local areas (You can access the protocols by clicking on “For Teachers” on the menu bar at the top of the GLOBE homepage.) Soon there will be new measurement protocols such as fresh-water ice freeze-up and break-up protocols and a frost-tube protocol that will be posted on the GLOBE web site. Students can conduct a study on things that interest them as part of the upcoming GLOBE Student Research campaign.

Below you will find Dr. Kevin Czajkowski’s summary of the participation in his surface temperature field campaign. We at GLOBE join Kevin is his sincere thanks for your help!

8 January 2008

Thank you for your participation in the 2007 GLOBE Surface Temperature Field Campaign.

The surface temperature field campaign is completely over. I think that every student and teacher who was going to enter observations has done so. We had over 1100 total observations. That is wonderful. As you know, each complete observation represents 9 surface temperature observations, 9 snow depth, cloud cover and cloud type, condensation trail cover and type, surface wetness, and cover type for a total of 24 observations per complete surface temperature observation. That means that there were over 26,000 individual student observations for the campaign. That is impressive!

A total of 40 schools participated from the United States, Estonia, Thailand, Poland and from the following states in the United States Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska, Illinois, Kansas and Colorado. The school with the largest number of observations was Roswell Kent Middle School in Akron, Ohio with 75 observations. A close second was Kilingi-Nomme Gymnasium in Parnumaa, Estonia (72 observations), Gimnazium in Toszek, Toszek, Poland (69 observations), Waynesboro Senior High School, Waynesboro, Pennsylvania (69 observations), Dalton High School, Dalton, Ohio (67 observations) and Rockhill Elementary School, Alliance, Ohio with 61 observations. Even if your school only entered one observation, every observation is important and your contribution to the project is greatly appreciated.

Figure 1. Map of schools participating in the surface temperature field campaign.

I wanted to give you a little update on how things were going around my house. In late December, my frost tube showed that the ground was frozen to about 10 cm in depth. But, then, on New Year’s Eve, temperatures warmed up and melted the frost. I was actually with my family about two hours drive north in Michigan visiting family when it snowed 38 cm (15 inches) New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day morning. I tried to drive my van out of the side road to a main road. Unfortunately, the snow was too deep and the van got stuck several times. I used a shovel to dig the van out and finally gave up and parked in a neighbor’s driveway. This was the first time in my life I had been stuck in the snow. Having grown up near Buffalo, NY where there is lots of snow in the winter, I prided myself on being a good winter driver. Of course, it wasn’t poor driving skills that got us stuck. It was the fact that the snow was so deep. We finally made it out and got to our house near Toledo, Ohio later that night.

That storm produced only rain in Toledo, Ohio. Then, 7 cm (3 inches) of snow fell on New Year’s Day at our house near Toledo. After that, temperatures dropped to –13º C (8º F) two nights in a row. Interestingly, due to the 7 cm of snow on the ground, the frost tube showed no ice below the ground surface. The snow had insulated the ground from the cold.

Then, there were extremely warm temperatures January 6-9, 2008 in Toledo, Ohio and much of the eastern United States. On Monday, Toledo reached a record high of 19º C (66º F). The old record temperature was 16º C (61º F) that was set in 1907. All of the snow and ice has melted around here. But, the weather forecast models show that temperatures are going to drop again below freezing.

Schools involved in the surface temperature field campaign to date:

Dr. C

21 December 2007

It is the last official day of the 2007 surface temperature field campaign. Although we will not know for several weeks the total number of schools that have participated and the total number of observations taken, it was a great success. It has been a lot of fun watching the observations come in and to post blogs a couple times a week. Of course, if you want to keep taking measurements into the new year, please do. I know of a couple schools that are going to do that.

Here is an update on the snow situation. In North America, the snow has been melting back a bit in the center and eastern parts of the United States (Figure 1). You will also notice that there is a little more snow coverage in Eastern Europe. That is a common occurrence in the winter for cold air to move back a forth from the Eastern to the Western Hemisphere. When the cold weather was affecting the United States, Eastern Europe was warm. Now, it has flipped a little.

Figure 1. Snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere from 20 December 2007.

In the Western Hemisphere, there has been a fundamental change in the atmospheric flow. When it was cold and there were several major snow storms in the United States, the flow was out of Canada which is a source of cold air in the winter (Figure 2). This type of flow is called meridional. The upper level flow is at around 5500 meters above sea level. It steers the weather systems. This week, the pattern has changed and the upper level flow is sending weather systems from the Pacific Ocean into the west coast of the United States. Then the systems track across the United States. This type of flow is called zonal. This is bringing in warmer and moister air and is one of the reasons that the temperatures across much of the central part of the United States have gone above freezing.

This shift in weather patterns is evident in the surface temperature observations that were recorded. On 17 December 2007, Rockhill Elementary School in Alliance, Ohio recorded a surface temperature 3.0° C where there was no snow in the parking lot to –5.4° C on their grassy field where there was 78 mm of snow. On 20 December 2007, the students at Rockhill Elementary School measured 4.5° C on the parking lot and 0.4° C on the snow covered field with 80 mm of snow. As you can see, the temperature of the snow pack warmed up to right around freezing.

It is the last official day of the 2007 surface temperature field campaign. Although we will not know for several weeks the total number of schools that have participated and the total number of observations taken, it was a great success. It has been a lot of fun watching the observations come in and to post blogs a couple times a week. Of course, if you want to keep taking measurements into the new year, please do. I know of a couple schools that are going to do that.

Here is an update on the snow situation. In North America, the snow has been melting back a bit in the center and eastern parts of the United States (Figure 1). You will also notice that there is a little more snow coverage in Eastern Europe. That is a common occurrence in the winter for cold air to move back a forth from the Eastern to the Western Hemisphere. When the cold weather was affecting the United States, Eastern Europe was warm. Now, it has flipped a little.

Figure 2. Upper level flow on 15 December 2007 (top) and 21 December 2007 (bottom).

In general, all of the measurements in the United States showed a warming from 17 December to 20 December. The warmest temperature for this past week was 12.4° C and was measured 20 December 2007 at Waynesboro High School in Waynesboro, Pennsylvania on their dry parking lot while the coldest temperature was measured at Eastwood Middle School, Pemberville, Ohio of –11.0° C where there was 83 mm of snow. If the students at Moosewood Farm Home School in Fairbanks, Alaska had reported this week, they would have reported the coldest temperature by far. The air temperature hovered between –35° C and –40° C. But, they did not report any temperatures. It was probably too cold for the students to go outside.

Below is a pair of figures that was recently published about the Arctic ice cover on the NASA Earth Observatory website along with an article (Figure 3). The 1978-2002 median value is shown as the yellow line (Median is the middle value of a bunch of numbers. For example, if you are one of five children, of ages 1, 3, 7, 11, and 13, the median age of the children in your family is 7 years). You can see that the ice melted in the Arctic Ocean to record low levels in September this year and recovered quite a bit by November. But, the ice extent is still far below the 1978-2002 median level.

Figure 3. Ice extent compared to the 1979-2002 median extent for November (top) and September (bottom) 2007. Maps of ice extent from NASA Earth Observatory.

Schools involved in the surface temperature field campaign to date:

Dr. C

17 December 2007

The storm that moved through the center of the United States lived up to its billing. There was heavy snow, strong winds, heavy rain, tornadoes, freezing rain and sleet. In Toledo, Ohio we had about 5 cm of snow and then freezing rain and sleet on top of that. One of my friends could not get into his car because the ice froze over the car. I broke two ice scrapers trying to get the ice off of my car. After the ice, I think we had about 20 cm (8 inches) of snow at my house but then the wind blew the snow into drifts so it was hard to tell how deep the snow is. I was driving home from the store last night when I saw a car slide off the road into the deep snow in the ditch. I carry a shovel with me in my car in the winter so I was able to help him. A couple of young men, maybe seniors in high school, stopped and helped me push the car out. It felt good to help someone.

Figure 1 shows the snow and ice cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere. Compare that to the mean December snow water equivalent in Figure 2. The snow water equivalent is the depth of water that the snow will melt down to. For the storm over the weekend, the ratio of snow to water was probably on the order of 10:1 or 8:1. That means that for every 10 cm of snow it will melt to 1 cm of water. So, for the 20 cm of snow that we received in Toledo, Ohio there should be about 2 cm of water when the snow melts. Although the snow water equivalent and the snow extent are two different observations, the area of snow water equivalent can be used as an indication of snow extent. When you compare Figure 1 with Figure 2, how does the extent of snow cover today compare to the snow extent as indicated by the mean December snow water equivalent map in Figure 2?

Current Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent

Figure 1. Current (17 Dec. 2007) snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere.

Figure 2. Mean snow water equivalent (SWE) for December. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

How are the maps of snow extent created? One of the sources of data is from satellite imagery. Figure 3 is a satellite image from a geostationary satellite called GOES. Snow covers most of the image including the states of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana. How can you tell where the snow is in this image? Do you see clouds in this image as well?

Figure 3. GOES (Geostationary) satellite image from 17 December 2007, 18:15 Universal Time.

As of this morning, we are up to 556 observations from 32 schools. I was able to add the observations from the University of Toledo.

Take care,

Dr. C

13 December 2007

I’ll have to say that I haven’t posted a message on the blog lately partly because I was busy with finals at the University of Toledo and my trip to San Francisco for the American Geophysical Union meeting. But, I also have had bloggers block. I didn’t know what to write about. Well, now I have a lot of things that I want to write about. Some of it will have to wait until next week.

All of the snow has melted in Toledo, Ohio. The temperatures over the last couple of days have gotten above freezing. You are all probably aware of the ice storm that hit the center of the country. That system caused a little bit of snow yesterday in Toledo but the forecast of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of snow did not pan out. But, the system caused a good amount of snow in southern New York state, Pennsylvania and even 25 cm (10 inches) in Boston, Massachusetts. Among the schools that have entered data for the surface temperature field campaign, White Cloud School in White Cloud, Michigan has reported 27 cm (11 inches) of snow on the ground.

It looks like another major winter storm is going to move out of the mountains over the weekend, across the country, to the east coast of the U.S. (see Figure 1 below). The map shows the low pressure system will be over Tennessee Saturday evening and will be spreading snow from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. It looks like the drought stricken parts of United States will be getting some much needed rain. This storm should be a good one with strong winds. The forecast for Toledo, Ohio is 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) of snow. Locations in the southern part of Ohio should get more snow as should the eastern United States. I bet all of the students will be wishing the storm had hit during the week….

It looks like the snow will stick around as well. After the storm goes by, much colder conditions are expected. The temperature should remain below freezing for several days at the minimum. I hope I can get out my cross country skis. Also, I’ll try to go sledding with my kids.

Figure 1. Forecast map for 0Z Sunday, 16 Dec. 2007 (which is Saturday night in North America).

Surface Temperature Satellite Data

Timothy Ault, a Research Scientist at the University of Toledo, helped me by plotting up the students’ surface temperature observations. He took the student observations from the GLOBE Web site and plotted them in a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map the values overlaid on MODIS data from the Aqua satellite image. In the image below, you will see how much of Michigan, central Pennsylvania, and western New York are covered with clouds. [I apologize to the schools from Alaska, Iowa, Illinois, Estonia and Poland that are not on this map. I wanted to show what could be done with the data so I picked an area that covered the most schools possible.] The MODIS image was acquired from the rapid response Web site.

As you can see from the student measurements, the surface temperatures in Michigan under the cloud cover are much cooler than the surface temperatures in northeast Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania. The areas without cloud cover tend to have much warmer temperatures. When I was at AGU, Dr. Dorothy Hall from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center mentioned that scientists do not know the surface temperature under clouds because the clouds block the signal that the satellite can observe. This is a good example of how student observations are adding to our scientific knowledge. The students can measure something that the satellites can’t.

The students’ observations of cloud cover are denoted by the numbers to the left or above the circle. These are the nominal cloud cover percentages associated with the categories of the GLOBE observations. Clear – 5%, Isolated – 17.5%, Scattered – 37.5%, Broken – 70% and Overcast – 95%. You might be able to see that the student cloud cover observations do not seem to match the MODIS cloud observations especially in northern Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania. Why do you think that is? If you notice, Tim did not put the time the satellite went over and the time of the student observations on the map. Would the time of observation of clouds be important? And could that be the reason that there are differences?

In the MODIS image, you can see the urban heat island effect. I have an arrow pointing out Columbus, Ohio which shows up clearly as warmer than the rural areas surrounding it. Dayton, Ohio and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania also show up warmer as well.

Figure 2. Student observations of surface temperature mapped onto a surface temperature MODIS image for 27 November 2007. The surface temperature measured by the students is in the circles and color coded according to the legend on the left. The number above or to the left of the circle is the nominal cloud cover percentage.

As of this morning, we are up to 556 observations from 32 schools. I was able to add the observations from the University of Toledo last night. It is nice to see so many observations coming in. Not that this is a competition, but the students from some schools are putting a lot of effort into the field campaign. I’m very impressed. I put the number of observations next to the schools with more than 20 observations.

Take care,

Dr. C