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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/31/08 0905Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0845Z  JS
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LOCATION...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
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EVENT...CLUSTER OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES TO THE ENE.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATING TECHNIQUES
HAVE KEYED IN ON GARFIELD COUNTY WITH 2-3" ESTIMATED DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS IS THE
FARTHEST TO THE SOUTH AND HAS INITIAL ACCESS TO THE BEST MOISTURE/LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WITH SFC DATA ANALYSIS SHOWING NOSE OF MID 60S TO NEAR
70F SFC DEWPOINT AXIS POINTING INTO S CENT OK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG WITH GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND PLOT INDICATE ACTIVITY IS WITHIN
REGION OF PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL AND
POLAR STREAMS. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED IN IR IMAGERY WITH CIRRUS BLOWOFF
EXPANDING DOWNWIND TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COMPLEX RESULTING
IN SOMEWHAT OF A WEDGE SHAPE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING. THIS COMPLEX HAS
ALSO BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS AND IS NOT SHOWING ANY
REAL SIGNS OF DIMINISHING AS IT IS BEING FED BY A STRENGTHENING 50-70KT
850MB JET PER REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA. DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO
SOME VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BEEN NOTED WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT/BACKBUILDING ON THE SW FLANK WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ALSO ENCOMPASSING COUNTIES SUCH AS NOBLE/PAYNE AS WELL AS
CONTINUING FOR E GARFIELD. WITH CURRENT CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT AND GOES
SOUNDER DERIVED PW VALUES OVER 1.25"  EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO BRIEFLY
BE OVER 2"/HR IN THE STRONGEST CORES WITH RECENT METAR OBSERVATION FROM
KSWO(STILLWATER) VERIFYING THIS. ALSO BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF 3" OR HIGHER IN ROUGHLY A 2 HOUR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE SW FLANK OF THE COMPLEX WHERE
REDEVELOPMENT/BACKBUILDING IS MORE LIKELY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3755 9663 3610 9610 3572 9712 3641 9816 3747 9807
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